Stick a fork in the rest of May. The upcoming pattern looks good if you like rain, in fact many areas in the SGP, panhandles of TX and OK, KS, etc., will benefit greatly from the moisture. The cut off low now in southern California takes its sweet time meandering barely eastward and guarantees there will be very little return flow from the GOM to moisten things up in the traditional chase areas of tornado alley. The mid level pattern shows a possible day in MT next week where you could chase, but other than that there isn't much on the horizon to get excited about. June is just around the corner it seems.
Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014
- Thread starter James Gustina
- Start date
Jeff Hawkins
EF3
*sigh*... all the hope...dashed on the rocks it seems. In past years I worked for internal clients and could watch the forecast and request off with a day's notice and get it. This year my work circumstances are different, and I'm working for a "high value" external client, so requesting off is much more political (I asked off for the 5/11 and 5/21 events but the manager declined jokingly saying she needed to keep me 'safe'). I basically had to just block off a vacation and hope for the best. In looking at the forecast today I struggled to find any targets worth driving to through mid-week at least (as you noted a possibility in MT...but that's way out yet), so I've thrown in the towel and called in to say I can work at least early next week. I at least have through the end of the first week of June available if needed, and may just 'bank' my remaining days off to then.
Zack Hargrove
EF2
After next week the pattern looks dire... but this weekend and next week still have me optimistic even if the threats are marginal. The cutoff low will still give a threat Saturday through Monday or Tuesday. And Wednesday through Saturday could all hold potential in the northern Plains per the GFS. If you look at the NAM, this weekend isn't impressive but who cares... it's the NAM... look at the conservative 3km Texas Tech WRF... and the 4km NAM... much more optimistic and the Caprock does magical things.
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I believe that's called wishcasting.
Matt Hunt
EF3
You're not the only one! I have tomorrow afternoon through Wed off, but I don't think I'm going to make the long haul to west TX (18 hours for me) for a very marginal couple of days. I'd rather spend time with friends and family I won't see for a solid 5 months later in the year. So 2014 is pretty much a wrap for me, other than little local "chases" and lightning photography. On the plus side, I can brag I had a 100% success rate in 2014, ha! 1 chase, 1 tornado.
Zack Hargrove
EF2
Yes, me calling threats marginal is wishcasting. I apologize that I'm discussing actual weather using actual models.
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Jeff Hawkins
EF3
Suhwheet
I can say I had 0% success (at least so far) LOL!I think Zack's title " Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014 " was more prophetic than he might have realized...it's been a 'descent' if not a complete crash so far.
Jeff Hawkins
EF3
Sorry for the "thread flooding"...Zack...can you link what you're referring to? We all want to wish-cast I think at this point!
James Simonds
It's amazes me that the 758 confirmed tornadoes in the month of April 2011 is more than double the year-to-date count thus far. Goes to show the ebb and flow of synoptic patterns.
Per the GFS, quasi-zonal flow looks to reside next week, and outside the cutoff low, I don't see anything outstanding. The first week of June hints at a low coming off the coast with a couple shortwaves rippling into the northern plains, but it's too far out for any certainty.
Per the GFS, quasi-zonal flow looks to reside next week, and outside the cutoff low, I don't see anything outstanding. The first week of June hints at a low coming off the coast with a couple shortwaves rippling into the northern plains, but it's too far out for any certainty.
Zack Hargrove
EF2
Sounding for Lubbock for the Texas Tech 3km WRF at 20z on Saturday:
4km NAM Nest for Sunday 03z:
I was simply trying to spark some optimism for the self-stated marginal setup from the closed low... in a discussion forum about future chase prospects... and say what you will, it being a long way out and/or it being marginal... there are some signals that the end of next week could hold some decent setups for the Northern Plains... I don't think that's wish-casting... I think that's presenting some views that weren't addressed, however marginal the threats are.
Zack Hargrove
EF2
Suhwheet
I think Zack's title " Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014 " was more prophetic than he might have realized...it's been a 'descent' if not a complete crash so far.
My title? I had nothing to do with the title of this thread.
Jeff Hawkins
EF3
LOL...my bad...James Gustina gets the credit. And thanks for posting the data. I'd like to be hopeful for Saturday in W Texas, although I won't be there myself. I toyed around with driving to take the chance, but given other circumstances in my life close to home right now, I'm once again going to have to hold off. Best of luck to any/all who go there!
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chrisbray
EF4
At least that cutoff low is dumping plenty of rain to the drought stricken lands over which it hovers!
The composite reflectivity graphic you posted is for Sunday at 9 am Zach. It shows decaying thunderstorms from the previous evening, so I'm not sure if that was the one you intended to show. The challenge with next week's northern target area is moisture. The lower level flow from the GOM is out to lunch for several days because of the pesky, slow moving cut off low. If it could move out a little swifter it would help improve things dramatically, but as it stands any warm sector air mass will be of a modified nature. Both the ECMWF and Canadian GEM indicate the cut off low will move very slowly from now through most of next week. I really hope you have some good luck on your side though and prove me wrong!
James Gustina
Supporter
Looking like this might be the last hurrah for May in the "traditional alley". I said it in a previous post I'm pretty sure, but this feels like a June 2009 where you'll have to go to the fringes of the alley and even think outside the box a bit to nail some of the marginal days that will undoubtedly sprout up. I'm still tornado-less and excluding a flukey day near Abilene, I haven't seen a storm worth a crap this season so I'll likely bite on anything with a pulse into the upper Midwest.
The GFS and Euro both seem to be ridging out the Plains after this dinky cutoff low meanders it's way through (different timing of course). I'm hopeful that maybe NW flow will setup over Iowa/Illinois or something that way but considering how far north the main branch of the jet gets shunted north I'm not overly confident in decent setups anywhere there. Montana could potentially have a few surprise days with a few disturbances going through there and at least a narrow tongue of moisture making it into the eastern sliver of the state.
Edit: Thank the gods, the Panhandle needs fixing on it's water situation: http://i.imgur.com/nDC0jbB.gif
The GFS and Euro both seem to be ridging out the Plains after this dinky cutoff low meanders it's way through (different timing of course). I'm hopeful that maybe NW flow will setup over Iowa/Illinois or something that way but considering how far north the main branch of the jet gets shunted north I'm not overly confident in decent setups anywhere there. Montana could potentially have a few surprise days with a few disturbances going through there and at least a narrow tongue of moisture making it into the eastern sliver of the state.
Edit: Thank the gods, the Panhandle needs fixing on it's water situation: http://i.imgur.com/nDC0jbB.gif
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