Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[Zack Hargrove]

If the GFS verifies. You could have decent potential Saturday through Tuesday. If not more. If the Euro is right, the cutoff will move a bit quicker and more north. This Wednesday looks delicious. I wish there was a way I could get out to CO/KS but we'll be prepping the van for our first annual UND storm chase class I'm working with. We leave Friday AM and hoping there will be some diamonds in the rough throughout the proceeding 9 days.

Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk

 

[Michael Gavan]

For those of you who find themselves on the high plains and in dark sky country on friday evening.... Potential exists for brand new, possibly historic...or completely non-existent meteor storm. (or anything in between). Peak should be between 1 and 3 am CDT Saturday morning.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/06may_newshower/

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'll go on the record to say that I don't consider tomorrow's setup in Colorado to be "marginal" in any sense of the word!

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Yeah I agree. I've completely altered my vacation to accommodate tomorrow's setup. Even booked a room in Goodland so to not wear myself out after the chase.

 

[Michael Snyder]

There you go Marcus!

 

[Bob Schafer]

I forecast a major chaser convergence in Limon tomorrow afternoon. See y'all there. The problem with Goodland is that they get pounded by the E CO storms, sometimes near midnight.

 

[Matt Hunt]

If the GFS verifies. You could have decent potential Saturday through Tuesday.

I just noticed this as well as I looked for anything chaseable during my extended weekend off. It's a long haul for me, though. The plus side is (again, only if the GFS verifies) that it's in a relatively local geographic location day after day.

 

[David Conaway]

Regarding the West Texas hotel situation. Amarillo, Lubbock and Abilene are still pretty reasonable with their rates and availability. The corridor from San Angelo to Midland/Odessa and Hobbs, NM the hotel rates are outrageous.

There is almost no availability during the week and the rates at say a Comfort Inn are around $200 per night. The weekends are a little better but not by much. There is also a lot of traffic from the oil/electric trucks on what would otherwise be empty highways throughout the region.

Hopefully the weather pattern will favor some much needed rainfall for the West Texas area. With the dry line placed in this region, I'm sure there will at least be some
opportunity for some tornadoes.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Just to close the loop on some of my earlier posts re: chase trip scheduling... I am leaving tonight for OKC. Arriving after midnight, and concerned about flight delays/cancellations due to ongoing thunderstorms here in Philadelphia this morning, with another round expected later. Was prepared to leave OKC by 7AM Friday morning bound for southeastern NM but dismayed by SPC Day 2 which notes a possible late morning start to convection. We may have to write it off as a positioning day, will re-evaluate later. Day 3 / Saturday sounds like it might be an early mess too, but that is just based on a reading of the outlook, not any personal analysis.

Obviously hoping for some activity beyond that but concerned about anemic flow shown by GFS over most of Plains by mid-late week into next weekend of May 31. Regardless, will remain hopeful of other opportunities not yet depicted in the week following, as I am out until June 7.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

After all the complaints chasers have made about how crappy the 2012 and 2013 seasons were, looks like Mother Nature decded to be cruel and show everyone what a REAL bad season looks like.

 

[Logan Karsten]

Yeah, Greg hit the nail with that statement. I was really hoping June would pick up across the north and offer some surprises. Things may still tick up if we can get one or two good troughs to move in, but that window is starting to close. What irritates me is how it looks as though the jet stream is going straight to summer mode next week, pushing the good flow all the way into Canada. I am still hopeful for a surprise "June 17th", but as of right now, I am about to come to grips with the fact that this may be the first year since 2007 I haven't seen a tornado. Absolutely disgusting.....

 

[Shane Adams]

There's no denying that overall, 2014 has been horrid. However, there are some chasers who have nailed most of the bigger events and are subsequently having a pretty good year so far. 2006 is widely-considered one of the worst years in recent memory, but I had a really good season that year. I scored a top-5 tornado video sequence, and saw severe-warned supercells or better on 12 of 16 chases. Unfortunately this year, I have not had the same luck in collecting the diamonds in the rough.

Sorry for the non-forecast post, but I was adding to the offshoot conversation currently happening.

 

[Will Campbell]

There's no denying that overall, 2014 has been horrid. However, there are some chasers who have nailed most of the bigger events and are subsequently having a pretty good year so far. 2006 is widely-considered one of the worst years in recent memory, but I had a really good season that year. I scored a top-5 tornado video sequence, and saw severe-warned supercells or better on 12 of 16 chases. Unfortunately this year, I have not had the same luck in collecting the diamonds in the rough.

Sorry for the non-forecast post, but I was adding to the offshoot conversation currently happening.

Not in target area, no need to apologize for non substantive contributions

This has been a rough year for me, the few times I've been able to get out I either fight terrain or HP storms. Hoping for a good high plains June season...

 

[Chip Redmond]

I just noticed this as well as I looked for anything chaseable during my extended weekend off. It's a long haul for me, though. The plus side is (again, only if the GFS verifies) that it's in a relatively local geographic location day after day.

This sounds great being in the same area day after day... however, my biggest concern is certain drought stricken locations getting a quick 1-2" of rain with one storm, over a period of less than an hour. This is likely with slow moving storms this weekend. Therefore, flooding could be a big issue being overlooked and could really impact chasing that day/next day in the region. Hopefully I can still sneak out a supercell (all the $ is on the goofus though...) or two this weekend.

Chip

 

[Zack Hargrove]

This sounds great being in the same area day after day... however, my biggest concern is certain drought stricken locations getting a quick 1-2" of rain with one storm, over a period of less than an hour. This is likely with slow moving storms this weekend. Therefore, flooding could be a big issue being overlooked and could really impact chasing that day/next day in the region. Hopefully I can still sneak out a supercell (all the $ is on the goofus though...) or two this weekend.

Chip

Agreed Chip... the flooding problem could be a major issue from this system. Especially when dirt roads in this part of Texas are just plain awful and the soil conditions like you already mentioned. I am also worried about almost everyday being a convective mess. On the plus side, the northern Plains are starting to look very interesting in the Wednesday to Saturday time frame.