State of the Chase Season 2025

[Hannah.Taylor]

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Reports, though preliminary, still remain the best year-to-date over the last 14 years...since 2011. I admit the chase aspect of some of the events, whether at night or in the Southeast, may not have been optimal, nor has some people's schedules and commitments cooperated. But, despite early- or mid-May slow-downs, my long-standing recommendation is to always chase on Memorial Day weekend or make some great plans.

I have the 22-26th off. I will be out chasing ANYTHING and EVERYTHING I can.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The scary thing about having to depend on the last two weeks in May is the possibility that period could also go bust. I'm rearranging all of my schedules to make sure I can chase during the first 10 days in June just in case. I know a lot of people cannot do that, and I feel their pain. Chasing is a fickle mistress.

It's hard to believe we are already talking about NW flow events and Denver cyclones, but those are the back-up plans. The NCEP models are consistent with no-go set-ups until around May 11th. when they start to go haywire with a **suggestion** of SW flow by the 15th+. This could be one of my latest deployment dates ever.

If the latest CFS verifies, things will go nuts after May 13th. with significant events in June. We will see!

This is of course, sorcery-level guessing.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Exactly why I am trying not to look… I can’t get out there until the night of the 12th anyway. Hard to believe we won’t start seeing something by the 13th, as we will have had almost nothing for two weeks by then. I only have a week, and then I’ll miss the 21-23 when I have to fly back home for my son’s graduation, So mark those three days for the setup of the year, maybe of the decade. Then I’ll be back out from May 24 through the first week of June. I’m pretty bullish on having enough time in total for some good chase days. But we all know how fast that window can close… And I’m truly afraid I’m going to suffer the cruel irony of getting screwed during that three days I can’t be out there.

I don’t need a perfect pattern to draw me out there on the 13th, but since it’s only a week I do need enough to make it worth the back-and-forth, if only to make sure I don’t burn too much PTO on crap setups and unproductive travel time. I’m really not interested in NW flow events, unless I’m near the end of my season and that’s all there is. But I’m not going to use up PTO for it if that’s all there is starting the 13th.

 

[Jeff House]

Easy to get negative when the forecast is nebulous, but I really don't see any problems after the Omega block passes. Should get going again at least seasonable around May 15 give or take.

Note the Omega block is not a Texas based death ridge, which would shut down the central and southern Plains. Quite the contrary with AN heights North the Southern High Plains could be active.

Weeklies are in disagreement for the back half of May. CFS looks good both Dashboard and some 500 mb flow. GEFS weekly and ECMWF weekly are less bullish. GEFS is pretty bearish but it's the least reliable. More skillful ECMWF is neutral not really bullish or bearish.

Bottom line: I honestly don't see anything wrong with the May 15-31 time period. Nothing stands out, but nothing cries bust either.

 

[Paul Bird]

Can’t ask for much more than this heading towards peak season

 

[Jason N]

Whatever the Short-Term pattern brings for the next 3 days across NM/TX .. seems like there will be some isolated opportunities in a not sooo super large-scale environment. The next bigger story will be the 5 wave pattern shift after the 13th. which if the global runs continue the trend, could be a good period, trending upwards from the 13th to 15th in the higher plains., and opening up some good chase days from the 17th to 19th across the southern plains to TX Panhandle. Beyond that, its a crap shoot but the CFS has shown the presence of a bigger trough coming down into the SW US again for a couple days now.. so, something to watch even if at this point you might as well recite:

Annal Na Drak, Uth Vus Be Thud, Doth Eeel Vienday! 3 times.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Made the mistake of looking at the GFS and Euro this morning for the first few days beginning 5/13 when I can start chasing. It looks absolutely abysmal, with surface low pressure in the eastern Gulf or across Florida producing northerly winds over the western Gulf. Looks like the Gulf moisture return does not begin until maybe Thursday the 15th, but it doesn’t make it very far west right away. This first trip is only about 8 days, so the more down days there are at the beginning, the less likely I will bother making the trip, since I have to fly back on 5/21. Although if Jason’s right about the 17th-19th that might make it worthwhile, especially since it spans a weekend so I won’t have to use PTO. I’m not going to torture myself looking out that far. Even the period I already looked at is at the edge of reality, but the similar look on both models, and the fact that it is not just subpar but pretty much the exact opposite of what one would want to see, makes me inclined to believe it.

You all probably think I’m either joking or crazy, or are at least getting tired of me saying it, but I just know something big will go down from 5/21-5/23. It’s the only three days between 5/13 and 6/7 that I am unable to be out there.

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

Made the mistake of looking at the GFS and Euro this morning for the first few days beginning 5/13 when I can start chasing. It looks absolutely abysmal, with surface low pressure in the eastern Gulf or across Florida producing northerly winds over western Gulf. Looks like the Gulf moisture return does not begin until maybe Thursday the 15th, but it doesn’t make it very far west right away. This first trip is only about 8 days, so the more down days there are at the beginning, the less likely I will bother making the trip, since I have to fly back on 5/21. Although if Jason’s right about the 17th-19th that might make it worthwhile, especially since it spans a weekend so I won’t have to use PTO. I’m not going to torture myself looking out that far. Even the period I already looked at is at the edge of reality, but the similar look on both models, and the fact that it is not just subpar but pretty much the exact opposite of what one would want to see, makes me inclined to believe it.

You all probably think I’m either joking or crazy, or are at least getting tired of me saying it, but I just know something big will go down from 5/21-5/23. It’s the only three days between 5/13 and 6/7 that I am unable to be out there.

Look at the ensembles instead. Operational runs are prone to wild run to run swings. A good example is comparing last night’s Euro to the Canadian. At hour 240 the Euro has a big ridge of death while the Canadian is digging a nice trough into the Rockies. But both ensemble means (plus the GEFS) are fairly similar with activity picking up around 5/13.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Thanks for the reminder Mitch. I knew that already intellectually, but since I don’t often bother looking out beyond a week I’m not in the habit of using medium range ensembles all that much. Definitely would have been more appropriate to go directly to those, and not the operational, for this 8-10 day period I was checking out this morning. Still doesn’t look great, but it’s better, and at least there’s hope!

 

[Jason N]

I think the trend line looks ok right now. beyond anything else.. shape, heights, meridional vs, zonal... to me it's just about trends.. especially way far out.. shifts happen, as was mentioned in Mitch's operational vs. ensemble comment, but trends matter the most in my opinion... looking at nothing else... is a trough or ridge still over the same areas for 3 or 4 days on successive runs.. I just look for confidence in that, the rest generally works itself out.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Hope....... Yes, there is always hope. Both the ECMWF and the GFS are showing a major change beginning as early as the 13th. This is a big flip for the GFS, which suggested a boring Omega pattern 24 hours ago for the same period. I don't believe either model has latched onto reality ATM, but it's a most enlightening and invigorating trend. The next few model runs are going to be quite interesting.

 

[Jason N]

Warren... Let me uptick your hope to a smattering of reasonable confidence at least out to the 13th.. that things are trending in a positive way. Come on, stick with me!! lol

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

0z models continue to trend better, pending the Euro. They dig a trough into the Rockies by Mon-Tues next week which brings storm chances every day for at least somewhere in the central/southern plains. The big wild card is that pesky upper level low in the SE, the same one responsible for the severe wx in TX/NM over these next couple days. We need that to stay weak and get out as quickly as possible so we can get that moisture feed from the Gulf directed towards the plains.

 

[JamesCaruso]

. It looks absolutely abysmal, with surface low pressure in the eastern Gulf or across Florida producing northerly winds over the western Gulf.

The big wild card is that pesky upper level low in the SE, the same one responsible for the severe wx in TX/NM over these next couple days. We need that to stay weak and get out as quickly as possible so we can get that moisture feed from the Gulf directed towards the plains.

That’s what I was worried about in my post yesterday… SPC mentions the issue in its Day 4-8 today, although at this point that’s only through Monday 5/12:

“By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low.”

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

That’s what I was worried about in my post yesterday… SPC mentions the issue in its Day 4-8 today, although at this point that’s only through Monday 5/12:

“By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low.”

I’ve already written off Fri-Mon as being hopeless for good chase days. Marginal upslope activity does appear likely for 1 or 2 of those days despite low DPs, so there’s that at least. Tuesday is the first glimmer of hope as the ULL exits and flow and moisture begin to return…problem is, the models show fairly stong capping with the first couple days of good moisture return. Who knows if that holds at this range though.

I’m close to pulling the trigger and extending my trip 3 more days (end date 5/18 instead of 5/15). Probably going to make that decision around Thurs-Fri this week.