State of the Chase Season 2025

[Todd Lemery]

Since I’ll be on ice May 15th-19th I’m looking a little further ahead than most and am quietly becoming optimistic. Others have pointed out the pattern shift with SW flow starting around the 13th. I just want to add that every model I see has that pattern sticking around for a while. The CFS has the pattern holding until the 28th. Of course the CFS is the only one going out that far, but I’ll be doing cartwheels if the other models come into agreement over the coming week.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Moisture return can occur rather quickly this time of year, and with the saturated soil out west, the models may be underestimating the DP's. It's also not uncommon for RH to sneak up through the Pecos Valley this time of year. I'm departing on the 11th.

 

[Bobby Little]

I’ve already written off Fri-Mon as being hopeless for good chase days. Marginal upslope activity does appear likely for 1 or 2 of those days despite low DPs, so there’s that at least. Tuesday is the first glimmer of hope as the ULL exits and flow and moisture begin to return…problem is, the models show fairly stong capping with the first couple days of good moisture return. Who knows if that holds at this range though.

I’m close to pulling the trigger and extending my trip 3 more days (end date 5/18 instead of 5/15). Probably going to make that decision around Thurs-Fri this week.

realistically those 3 days might be the only decent ones in your period i'd hate to say

 

[Warren Faidley]

Just remember we are entering the time of year when obvious set-up dates often produce even better results on the "pre-day(s). I've been burned more times than I can count when I tried to cut it too close.