State of the Chase Season 2025

[Todd Lemery]

Since I’ll be on ice May 15th-19th I’m looking a little further ahead than most and am quietly becoming optimistic. Others have pointed out the pattern shift with SW flow starting around the 13th. I just want to add that every model I see has that pattern sticking around for a while. The CFS has the pattern holding until the 28th. Of course the CFS is the only one going out that far, but I’ll be doing cartwheels if the other models come into agreement over the coming week.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Moisture return can occur rather quickly this time of year, and with the saturated soil out west, the models may be underestimating the DP's. It's also not uncommon for RH to sneak up through the Pecos Valley this time of year. I'm departing on the 11th.

 

[Bobby Little]

I’ve already written off Fri-Mon as being hopeless for good chase days. Marginal upslope activity does appear likely for 1 or 2 of those days despite low DPs, so there’s that at least. Tuesday is the first glimmer of hope as the ULL exits and flow and moisture begin to return…problem is, the models show fairly stong capping with the first couple days of good moisture return. Who knows if that holds at this range though.

I’m close to pulling the trigger and extending my trip 3 more days (end date 5/18 instead of 5/15). Probably going to make that decision around Thurs-Fri this week.

realistically those 3 days might be the only decent ones in your period i'd hate to say

 

[Warren Faidley]

Just remember we are entering the time of year when obvious set-up dates often produce even better results on the "pre-day(s). I've been burned more times than I can count when I tried to cut it too close.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Just remember we are entering the time of year when obvious set-up dates often produce even better results on the "pre-day(s). I've been burned more times than I can count when I tried to cut it too close.

Great reminder Warren. I’m trying to resist the temptation to cut it too close myself. Not necessarily even thinking of a “day before the day” situation. More so just for going out in general. If I wait too long into this first 8 day period I have beginning on the 13th before going out there, it will seem less and less worthwhile once the remaining available window has shortened. Or I’ll be questioning whether the setup is worth a last-minute scramble to rearrange my schedule and get out there in time (if the last minute logistics are even still workable). Might as well just plan to head out for the 13th no matter what; then once I am there, I can make less-biased decisions about what’s worth chasing. At worst I’ll waste a little money and travel time. But even worst case with no good chasing, some time to myself and a change of scenery won’t be the worst thing in the world.

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

realistically those 3 days might be the only decent ones in your period i'd hate to say

They do look very nice. However I’m liking the good trend continuing in the 12z models to make Wednesday and Thursday next week decent severe days. Pair that with one or two low end days with high based junk and lightning and I’m happy enough. So even if I don’t extend my trip my original dates don’t look completely dead yet.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Well, the ensembles have definitely shifted more toward SW flow over the past couple days... to the point that SW flow appears quite plausible over the S/C Plains by mid-late next week (5/13-5/16). The 12z EPS even has 30-40 kt flow in the ensemble mean for several days, almost reminiscent of an upper air pattern like late May 2016... with one catch. I'm actually worried about blowing this momentum too early, before we can really shake the SE troughing and reestablish quality moisture.

Regardless, it seems likely that reasonable chase opportunities somewhere in the core alley will emerge by mid-month, which is an improvement from the prognosis several days ago.

 

[Bobby Little]

Just got back from Derby and wanted to chase after. That omega cutoff low ruined most the weekend and my chase plans.
To make things worse "this low continues to follow me wherever i go..." jus saying