I may have chosen the worst possible week to chase this year. 5/8 to 5/15 looks completely dead aside from maybe the last 2 or 3 days. I’ve had trips with more down days than chase days but at least there were nice severe days and/or tornadoes on the chase days. This year could be a total dud.
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State of the Chase Season 2025
- Thread starter Dan Robinson
- Start date
JamesCaruso
Staff member
I don’t know how long this has been the case, but I feel like it’s as long as I can remember, i.e. more than just the last few seasons. I think it’s just a common feature of mesoscale days; just not high enough probabilities to justify a slight risk a couple days out, but then they upgrade when things become more clear the morning of. I’ll have to go back and refresh my memory on the categorical risks - is there a higher probability threshold for each risk level on Day 3 or 2 vs Day 1? I know the thresholds for outlooking an area in the Day 4-8 is 15%, which is higher than for Days 1-3.
Jason N
EF5
I "Think" you could find some potential structure/Lightning Sunset days on the 8th to 10th if you're willing to play down in NM and SW TX. you'll just have to watch the roads and Flash flooding potential in some of those areas. After that, there could be 1 or 2 NW flow events at the end of your trip.. but you're gonna have to get creative and find some other kinds of entertainment I think during that 10-14 Stretch.
Jason N
EF5
I think there's been that trend of upgrading more so than the over forecasting. That's one area where Ive seen a difference, for as long as I have been looking at them at least.. Perhaps that's a byproduct of the new system compared to the old when they added in the Enhanced and Marginal. oh and maybe back then... the probabilistic and ensembles weren't as prolific as they are today, and could be a reason behind more fluctuation in their forecasts now, vs. back then, and maybe that's the visual stability I was used to seeing then, compared to now.
I’m with a group that will go pretty much anywhere from the Mexican border to the Dakotas/Montana. After looking at the models more closely, I wouldn’t be surprised to see WY/MT start to come alive for some MRGL/SLGT days around 5/10-5/11 as long as adequate flow can make it far enough east. Crazy that those states are even being mentioned in mid May but desperate times call for desperate measures lol.
I’m also considering extending my trip a few days, renting a car, and doing some solo chasing after everyone else leaves just so I can at least see something decent.
This is currently my plan if it holds.
The 12z GFS dissipates the cutoff low instead of keeping it around in the southeast for days. As a result the ridge is able to erode much quicker and we get some marginal High Plains chase days starting next weekend instead of a hot and dry 4-5 day stretch. That cutoff low seems to be the key, if it sticks around the western ridge is allowed to pump up and cause the plains to shut down for awhile. But if it can get out of here, this upcoming week and a half may still have a little bit of hope.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
One of the big issues in the extended is the CAP. Not going to re-post models, but it's going to be a problem unless there is a major pattern shift.
Dan Robinson
EF5
I'm in agreement that things don't look great through mid-May. At least, not anything trip-worthy within my preferred chase range (Red River-Lubbock to the SD border). There is some multi-model signal for some weak SW flow toward the end of the period, but not much to get excited about. It's not *nothing*, though. There will be some diamonds in the rough again for all-season chasers far to the south and southwest of traditional chase alley. Just not worth it for limited-season chasers like me. During patterns like this, I just focus on work and padding my PTO for when things finally turn around.
Hannah.Taylor
EF4
Ok guys. Already planning for next year. Give your best ten day window with the best options for best tornadic results.
I don't have to submit time off request until the first Mon in January after the new year.
I don't have to submit time off request until the first Mon in January after the new year.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I'll just wait until late May when the good ole NW flow sets-up in the Clovis Triangle. Seriously, all this rain out west is going to have some kind of impact on dryline placement late in the season.
100% agree with Warren
William Monfredo
EF4
Reports, though preliminary, still remain the best year-to-date over the last 14 years...since 2011. I admit the chase aspect of some of the events, whether at night or in the Southeast, may not have been optimal, nor has some people's schedules and commitments cooperated. But, despite early- or mid-May slow-downs, my long-standing recommendation is to always chase on Memorial Day weekend or make some great plans.
Matthew Crowther
EF4
Yep, looks like the blocky pattern will essentially ruin the first half of May (with the possible exception of TX Mon-Tues, or if you were chasing May 1 near Killeen). In the last half, I see some signs of hope. I would be shocked if all of May sucked, and of course there is June.
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