Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

James, I wasn't referring to anything you've offered to the thread. Your opinions are as valid as anyone's as far as I'm concerned. While you make references to your personal situation, those don't influence your opinion and they don't come across as biased, at least to my eyes.

I'm just referring to the posts that are all about that person's personal situation, with no meaningful input on the overall conversation regarding any setups that don't directly, personally affect them.
 
I never cared much to speculate what the overall pattern is doing or what's coming down the long range. Even if the overall tornado count was way down for the year, a subtle slight risk day pops up with 3 days or less notice and it can make your entire season... or your entire career.

May 21 is probably going to be a 2% day in Colorado. It could be an awesome chase day though with gorgeous LP supercells. If you hit the lotto and bag something even remotely like Campo, I don't think you have much reason to say the season sucked.

Lots of you had career years last year. I didn't, it was one of my worst seasons. It's not saying much but I'm already way up from last spring this season and we've got all of June yet to go. Lots of slight risk days with pretty tornadoes. Forget the moderate and high risk days, the best chase days are probably going to be the 2 and 5% days coming up in the next couple weeks and they won't be advertised 10 days out on the GFS.

So I guess what I'm saying is the speculation and long range forecasts are fun and interesting, especially if you're itching to get out there or have a chasecation coming up, but to me as someone not locked into 2 weeks in May, they're almost meaningless from a chasing perspective.
 
Kudoes, Skip. Nailed it. Maybe I'll see you out there in E CO this week.

What about that cutoff in NM later on, hmmm? While not a fan of cutoff lows, I think next weekend a bunch of us are going to find ourselves chasing NM/W TX for the first time in a long while.
 
Here is my take on the next 2-3 weeks.

I have one rule this time of year.

When the DP's are 55F or higher in the regions of eastern NM, W,TX or E,CO you chase. About 75% of the time, you are going to have at least one or two "sneak attack" storms that will produce a photogenic tornado. There are many classic examples, including the recent Campo event. This region sometimes defies the normal rules of forecasting and it does not take a mega system or insane shear to produce a good storm. We use to call it "West Texas Magic," although I think you can add SE, CO and E, NM.

No, you are not going to have a high risk wedge fest, but who really wants that. They kill people, attract a zillion locals and are often difficult to chase. Then you have the spring/summer transition period when NW flow sets up. Once more, there have been many mind-boggling tornadoes produced in NW flow. Lastly, you have the Denver Cyclone play and events in the NE-CO and SW-NE regions in mid-to-late June. So in reality, the season is just starting if you can alter your chase schedule.

W.
 
Motivational reminders by Skip and Warren, just what I needed to keep my chin up heading into this last week of work before chase vacation!

And Shane, thanks for that!

Jim
 
I don't remember the last time we've had a cutoff low spinning in the desert SW for a few days in a row and DPs in the mid to upper 50s in E NM. That being said its almost like a mini monsoon setting up but the shear and CAPE values advertise perhaps some rotating storms. I love chasing out there, mostly because of how desolate the area is. A big word of caution to those planning on chasing in E NM/W TX. Hotel prices are through the roof at this period in time thanks to the oil boom going on in the area. It'll be hard to find available rooms for under $100/night in towns such as Midland, Odessa, Hobbs, and Roswell. You might have to plan on going west near I-25 or east into Lubbock to find something cheap but decent.
 
Now I'm starting to hear some enthusiasm. I'm booking WY/CO for 5/21. and 5/22 is a toss up but leaning northern target. After that That cut off low is going to produce some weather worth chasing....Haboobs....FF...maybe a noodle or two.

Great heads up on the Hotels, Marcus. 2 years ago after that Amarillo area hail machine It took until 1 am to find a place. Total surprise.
 
We had a nasty hailstorm last year that tossed baseballs on the west side of town. Luckily, all the insurance adjusters and roofing companies have pretty much wrapped things up in this area. So finding hotels in Amarillo is no problem.

My mom and little sister had to settle for a 1.5 star Motel 6 in Midland at $110/night when my sister had a gymnastics tournament. Also businesses such as Wal Mart and restaurants are having a hard time keeping people employed since everyone is out in the oil fields making $125k/year. So don't expect the best shopping or dining experience in the Midland/Odessa area.
 
Some of you are griping that season is over, that the GFS sucks, and there is nothing to chase.

Meanwhile in Nebraska today...

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Only a very photogenic tornado in the heart of the plains, on a weekend in May. What are you guys waiting for, a 30 hatched over Norman?
 
Skip: you have a point regarding these marginal late-season setups, but at least in my opinion, you're taking it a little too far. Of course, it really is all just a matter of opinion, but hear me out...

For those of us who chase year-round, there's a balance to be had between synoptically-evident setups and marginal upslope/boundary days. My favorite periods of chasing are central/northern Plains patterns anchored by one or two synoptically-obvious days, surrounded by more marginal events like today's. The "synoptic" day need not be a HIGH risk or an outbreak; something like Bowdle is preferable (in fact, that 5/21-5/25 period in 2010 was close to a prototypical example of what I mean). Regardless, as a year-round chaser who's already burned up some funds and time on early-season stuff, it's tough to justify marathon trips to the N Plains if something like today's setup is the "highlight." There will be many days of this caliber between now and July, and plenty of them will fail to produce highly-photogenic supercells or any tornadoes.

Unfortunately, nothing of Bowdle or Aurora or Faith caliber looks to be on the horizon right now as we enter the heart of chase season. Just scattered upslope days like today with very marginal moisture, along with some completely quiet days mixed in. It's not the worst thing in the world for chasecationers, but let's not pretend the pattern doesn't suck by late May standards, and that the sucky pattern isn't a significant hindrance to folks trying to work chases into our schedules efficiently. Could a Campo or SW SD 6/22/12 event sneak in at some point next week? Absolutely; but those "career-making" days, as you mentioned in an earlier post, are exceedingly rare among truly marginal setups. As in, there are entire years that don't even feature one such hyper-overperforming day. Career days are far more likely to occur on high-end SLGT or low-end MDT setups that have at least some synoptic-scale support, moderate deep-layer shear, and tons of moisture/instability. If some of those days looked to be forthcoming soon, I doubt there'd be nearly as much complaining, outbreaks and 100 kt. jet streaks or not.
 
The "synoptic" day need not be a HIGH risk or an outbreak; something like Bowdle is preferable.

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Sorry for the meme, but this is the stereotypical Norman chaser mentality that I'm lambasting here. "I don't need a high risk day, but if I'm leaving Oklahoma, it better at least be a career day." Bowdle and Aurora were career chases for lots of folks. It's a no brainer to chase either of those days. Yeah you're gonna bust a half dozen or a dozen times playing the upslope in marginal days, but you're still going to have some awesome, potentially season making days in there. And if you've budgeted a couple thousand miles of chasing in May, would you stay home or would you chase the marginal upslope stuff?
 
Some of you are griping that season is over, that the GFS sucks, and there is nothing to chase.

Meanwhile in Nebraska today...

For those who have seemingly infinite resources, sure, the season is NEVER over (because who knows whether that CF sinking through southern Georgia won't produce a brief spinup?

It's also a matter of it being worth spending the time and money. Norman biased or not, it's difficult for some people to justify spending a 2 or 3 day trip spending hundreds on gas and possibly more on food and lodging for such a low risk type setup. 99 times out of 100 you'll go home with basically nothing to show for it other than a day on the plains. If I wanted that, I could go out in July or August when it's 110 and say the same thing. Hence, in the minds of people like Brett (and myself), for all practical purposes our season IS actually over.
 
Here's the question I would put forth to my fellow Norman-based chasers who chase year-round...if you feel the chances are dead for synoptically evident setups, wouldn't it be worth considering playing a string of marginal days just to see what happens, if you have the flexibility to do so (I fully realize some have full-time jobs with many obligations and do not, I get it.)? But from a financial standpoint, if there are no obvious setups, then you'll just be sitting on the cash. I suppose saving as much as possible has virtue, but March of 2015 (or this autumn if we're lucky) is a long time to wait under a sky free of robust convection.

To each their own...

In my specific case, I am tentatively planning on chasing quite a bit the next couple of weeks. I see at least marginal potential on quite a few upcoming days, starting with Colorado into western Kansas Tuesday and Wednesday, and then possibly in New Mexico and west Texas as that SW low begins slowly nosing its way eastward. Do I think my odds of seeing something spectacular are good? No. But if I hit enough of them, I have hopes that I can pull off a good day or two. Right now, I want good structure, and hopefully a tornado. We'll see what happens.
 
Sorry for the meme, but this is the stereotypical Norman chaser mentality that I'm lambasting here.
You're losing me now. First of all, unless you're being sarcastic, I'm not sure why you're associating my mentality with Norman. There were at least several Norman-based chasers in WY today, and they deserve their awesome photos for taking the risk. Likewise, there were lots of IL chasers who sat at home, roughly equidistant from the target. I don't think there's anything unique about Norman besides the number of chasers. The distribution of those chasers is probably about the same as in any major central US city.

"I don't need a high risk day, but if I'm leaving Oklahoma, it better at least be a career day." Bowdle and Aurora were career chases for lots of folks. It's a no brainer to chase either of those days.
You say that like it was patently obvious the morning of those setups that a career day was about to unfold. That's not really the case. There are truly synoptic-evident days like 5/29/04 or 4/14/12 where you're almost guaranteed to have a banner chase if you play things correctly. Those are the days that even "lazy," casual chasers come out of the woodwork for. The sweet spot, IMHO, is right around Aurora/Bowdle caliber. You probably get one banner chase day for every 3 or 4 of those setups (e.g., 5/27 last year on the KS/NE border was in that category but didn't turn out great), but it's well worth the risk for serious chasers. When you slide further down the scale to the 2% days with 25 degree T-Td spreads and 25-35 kt flow that are three states away, the practical limitations imposed by finances, work, and other factors come down hard for all but the most fortunate among us. Which brings me to...

Yeah you're gonna bust a half dozen or a dozen times playing the upslope in marginal days, but you're still going to have some awesome, potentially season making days in there. And if you've budgeted a couple thousand miles of chasing in May, would you stay home or would you chase the marginal upslope stuff?
I agree that if you're a serious chaser willing to spend serious money each year, you'll take what you get. But if you have practical limitations like I described above and it's still mid-May, does it make sense to go for broke this coming week, given there's still the possibility of a more favorable pattern in June? That's up to the individual; for me, the answer was and is no. If it gets to be June 15 and we still haven't had a favorable synoptic-scale pattern, I'll probably consider doing a few days of upslope at that point.

I'm not really sure what the argument here is, if any. I think we can all agree that even in years like this, there are diamonds in the rough to be found. I think we also can all agree that in years with more a persistently-favorable pattern, the end results are better for everyone, no matter what type of chaser you are. To be disappointed that we aren't experiencing the latter is only natural.
 
For those who have seemingly infinite resources, sure, the season is NEVER over (because who knows whether that CF sinking through southern Georgia won't produce a brief spinup?

It's also a matter of it being worth spending the time and money. Norman biased or not, it's difficult for some people to justify spending a 2 or 3 day trip spending hundreds on gas and possibly more on food and lodging for such a low risk type setup. 99 times out of 100 you'll go home with basically nothing to show for it other than a day on the plains. If I wanted that, I could go out in July or August when it's 110 and say the same thing. Hence, in the minds of people like Brett (and myself), for all practical purposes our season IS actually over.

Sure, and I say a lot of the above half jokingly. Most of us can't chase every setup, and you almost have to get the prettiest tornadoes each year. Throw a trough and a moderate across South Dakota and a lot of you are making the trek up there, only to come home without much to show for it. You budgeted for that trip and made the time. If you can get the same result playing a few modest upslope days as you did this rather comparatively modest (despite the moderate) day in Nebraska on the 11th, why wouldn't you do it?

Because you don't get the same result. I think this is mainly just the difference in chase styles or attitudes. A photogenic supercell and a small tornado isn't good enough for a lot of people. If you feel that you have to get a large, significant tornado on a day in which it was expected (so that people are paying attention) in order for any significant travel to be justified, than yeah you're probably going to be pretty bummed about the season. I think you would be more often than not though.

Of course it's an exaggeration to say that you're going to blue sky bust 99 times out of 100 playing the upslope. If you've got 55 Td's and easterly flow at the surface over CO you're probably going to see some gorgeous storms over some gorgeous scenery. Of course this is where the differences in chase style shows, and there's nothing wrong with it really. I just like to poke fun at it a bit, but it seems that this isn't good enough for a lot of chasers. That a tornado has to be handed over on a silver platter, a triple point and a trough over I-40, or it's just not worth driving more than 4 hours and shelling out $80 for a motel room. Four days on the upslope, a sculpted LP one day, some lightning another day, a landspout if you're lucky, and then a day hiking. That's a dream come true for me, but for many chasers, and I'd label them the stereotypical storm snob crowd, that's pretty lame. That's fine, whatever floats your boat. I chased the upslope in August last year. We cap busted half our days, came home with a few funnels and some structure, but it was one of my favorite chase trips of all time because we had a blast while we were out there, and that's pretty much why I chase. Not to see a violent tornado every time I go out, but to have fun chasing in all of its facets.

I certainly can't chase every 2% setup, but I like to pick a few of them each year as time and budget allows, and I usually have an awesome trip each time because I see a few great storms and have a lot of fun in the process. And if I'm super lucky I might catch an awesome tornado that makes the season or even the career.

"Every season has a few diamonds in the rough." That's all of chasing to me. The tornadoes are always diamonds in the rough.
 
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