Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[Jeff Duda]

Just curious where the "one last big system" sentiment comes from?

Climatology. It's unusual for the jet stream (and associated troughs) to remain this far south at this point of the year. Thus people assume that the jet will soon be moving into Canada OR a death ridge will be setting up. I've seen this death ridge show up in some long-range FIM forecasts several weeks ago, but the forecasts never verified, probably because this year is so unusual, it's trending away from climatology. Given how late everything has been this year, it's probably not out of the question to see troughs continue for another few weeks before we see a true abatement of large-scale storm systems anywhere but near the Canadian border.

 

[chrisbray]

Yeah, it's just me assuming the end is near because usually its over by now

 

[Will Campbell]

I can't argue with the sentiment, but this has been a bizarre year.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Things are typically hosed by mid-June, with the dryline south of SD capped off for the year and all the midlevel flow into Canada. Any setups that do happen this late are usually in SD/ND, requiring twice the travel distance (and therefore cost) to chase. On top of that, most systems only give you a one-shot chance - meaning you're looking a grueling one-day marathon. And then, most years' late June setups don't produce. That's why I typically do not plan for my season to go past the 15th. It's *almost* in the same category as Campo (not quite) - you have to be willing to chase lots of one-day Northern Plains marathons for years before you get a Manchester or a Coleridge. Worth it? Yes, I'd say so. But if you're like me, you don't have the money to chase the typical peak season AND cover all of the late-June chances. I have to take my pick, and I simply go with the period that statistically and historically has produced the best days for me. If I had endless funding, I'd be out there from March to August.

 

[James Gustina]

Barring the occasional low swinging through Iowa over the ridge, it looks like most of the Plains will be quiet for a bit.