Bob Schafer
EF5
The title of this thread should be "Miscellaneous-post-whatever's-on-your-mind-this-very-second". Sorry. Couldn't resist. I'm not complaining. It's been a very interesting thread.
Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014
- Thread starter James Gustina
- Start date
Jeff Hawkins
EF3
Hi Bob, I'm not sure exactly what you're responding to, as you didn't quote anything, but I think I 'get' what you're commenting about in this thread. I'm not a ST "hawk" per se...I am a noob, but your comment made me think about what's been said in this thread. First, I take your point as tongue-in-cheek humor...as you know the Bar & Grill (which you must opt in to view) is as far as I know where true non-weather related "whatever's-on-your-mind-this-very-second" thinking can be said. I've been following this thread on and off myself, and also have noticed the 'loose' nature of the weather discussion. I personally enjoy it, because it's encouraging ST members to engage. IMHO, I think this thread points to a gap in the ST realm, being that there's lots of severe weather enthusiasts who have some basic/general knowledge from their own study/self-learning, and have something to say about the severe weather forecasts, but don't necessarily feel comfortable (or worse feel intimidated) by all the tech talk, to make the jump to posting in the FCST section. I've found some of the comments about upcoming events here just as insightful as those in the FCST section, in that they get me thinking about the various parameters that make up for a 'setup'. I also find the candid comments about the season's progress supportive. That's something I wouldn't see readily in a FCST thread.
To speak to Chris Wilburn's comments about the ECMWF and GFS, I also noticed the 6/1 period (in general) looks to have some potential...at least more than is there in the near-term. I've pushed some of my vacation days back to the week of 6/2-6/6 ...hoping for more potential for severe weather that week, than exists now. I would just die however if the models didn't verify, and there's a severe weather/tornado outbreak between this coming Tues-Thursday.
Last edited by a moderator:
Andrew Stoller
EF5
This weekend is looking good, and the GFS is breaking down, or at least pushing the ridge to the east in the latest 12z run, allowing for "troughiness" into next week. Man, if only we can get one last good trough to build out west a bit further south to allow one last shot at a more classic event in Kansas, Nebraska etc. There hasn't been any big fronts to sweep out the gulf moisture in weeks, so if we can get a good western trough into the weekend and beyond, 70 degree dewpoints wouldn't be out of the question with extreme instability setups. The northen plains extreme instabilisty setups have led to some fo the most violent monster supercells.
Derek Weston
EF5
Looks like we'll get a bit of mediocre troughing per latest GFS/ECWF. Both have been trending towards a more cold-front driven forcing event, though, with the better lower levels outpacing the better upper support. Hopefully they sync up, as regardless there ought to be a rather potent warm-sector to play with. At the very least we'll get some mean linear type storms over NEB/SD/MN and IA.
Marcus Diaz
EF5
It does appear there might be a couple of decent days in the first half of the week. Looks like really good moisture on the dryline and maybe some bouts of westerly mid level flow. Mid level temps look warm for most days, but its too far out to know for sure. Of course the GFS is teasing me with a panhandle day on Wednesday, so we'll see how that actually turns out.
Derek Weston
EF5
Of course, why bother pointing out details on GFS data 100+ hours out. . .
Last two runs have been further south into KS for MON/TUE. . . and decent looking, potentially. As for the latest ECMWF. . . well, I hope the GFS is correct.
Last edited by a moderator:
Andrew Stoller
EF5
Tue through Friday next week look amazing now, particularly Tue. Lee troughing/cyclogenisis ramps up almost each day next week with a warm front draped across the I-70 corridor in Kansas. Looks early similar to May 28 last year. Bennington.
Derek Weston
EF5
Agreed. That's today's 12z GFS. ECMWF not quite as optimistic, but, does spit out a few good days.
James Gustina
Supporter
Another setup down the toilet.
Mike DeLange
EF0
yeah the outflow boundary on-going convective activity and ensuing outflow boundary (which felt more like a polar vortex) flushed yesterday's opportunities. This has been a year which has been challenging in many ways - very stubborn/fickle setups.
Logan Karsten
My hope for seeing anything this season is about gone as there are only a few weeks left before we head into full MCS model for the midwest. It seems as though every possible way a chase can be destroyed has occurred with Tuesday being the latest in a string of disapointments called "2014". I guess I look forward to the long-range models digging a long-range trough across the west next week, but mother nature will probably find a way to screw that up as well.
Looking at the ECMWF Deterministic mid and upper level wind charts last night left me with the impression that next weekend (Friday onward) will feature a nice long wave trough digging deeper in the SW CONUS as each day goes by. It looked to be of the positive tilt variety, but with 7-10 days to go a lot could change in the meantime. This will warrant keeping a close eye on the potential of this setup in the coming days.
chrisbray
EF4
Looks like this coming weekend into early next week could hold some promise!
Derek Weston
EF5
ECMWF 0z last night had next Mon/Tue looking good across NEB/SD/IA/MN . . .
GFS not quite as promising there, but pointing at good trough the northern plains in Canada.
Skip Talbot
EF5
We're pulling the trigger on a multi-day northern plains run. Starting as early as Wednesday, the GFS (and now NAM) has been consistently showing a string of upslope days and northern plains troughing under a modestly to moderately unstable airmass across SD/ND and the high plains of WY/NE. The north has been calling me, and this looks like the time to go.
