I'm happy to see my post from 2 days ago is still on track with an active pattern coming up this weekend. The ECMWF has been doing well at the 7-10 day range lately IMHO and I hope it's right this time too. My wife (and chase partner) can finally get some time off to go chasing so I couldn't be happier. A little car work and we'll be ready to roll out.
Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014
- Thread starter James Gustina
- Start date
Derek Weston
EF5
Probably pulling the trigger myself.
First wave coming through in the northern plains/midwest approx Fri-Tue looks pretty solid. (edits: ECMWF takes this down into the central plains a bit, hard to pinpoint this far out, obviously)
Another stronger trough looks to push in right behind it. This may offer some Canadian chasing.
I've never chased further north than SD. Looking forward to getting into ND and perhaps Montana and Canada.
First wave coming through in the northern plains/midwest approx Fri-Tue looks pretty solid. (edits: ECMWF takes this down into the central plains a bit, hard to pinpoint this far out, obviously)
Another stronger trough looks to push in right behind it. This may offer some Canadian chasing.
I've never chased further north than SD. Looking forward to getting into ND and perhaps Montana and Canada.
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Every year we say we're going to get passports or the passport ID cards so we can go into Canada and cross back without undue delay, then we dink around and never get it done. On another note it sounds like there's a prepaid SIM (to cover data needs) one can buy that works well in Canada called Telus IIRC. I've never used it but I heard it works well up north.
Bob Schafer
EF5
Please allow this post to serve as a quick reminder to everyone headed to western ND that getting motel rooms is a nightmare!
Derek Weston
EF5
Yeah, finally got mine last year. Haven't had a chance to use it on storms yet. Of course one friend likely to go on this trip won't have a passport. Already plotting on ways to ditch him at the border if we had to.
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Shane Adams
It looks just like SD, NE, KS.......
Derek Weston
EF5
It's fun eating breakfast in different places.
Royce Sheibal
EF3
This coming weekend is looking pretty sexy in the high plains into the central plains. Saturday through Tuesday looks good anywhere from the Dakotas down into Kansas. If might try and hit the road tuesday on what looks to be a nice upper low pushing across Nebraska. Sadly this will probably be the last good week of storms this year before the ridge of death is forecast to start soon.
Derek Weston
EF5
Indeed. Lots of high CAPE situations to be enjoyed with caps that should break. Saturday in particular caught my eye on today's NAM run.
Andrew Stoller
EF5
Yea, Saturday is looking good except it's another one of these setups where there's a trough and attendant cold front downstream of the playable setup, which screws up the surface pattern a bit! Leads to more of a veery profile. But, both the NAM, and GFS are hinting at deepening surface low triple point in northwest KS Saturday night which should help back surface winds more. If something can go up right at the dryline cold front triple point and track east and stay ahead of the front, it might be a producer.
chrisbray
EF4
Any thoughts at this point on any activity that might affect Iowa/Illinois?
I'm seeing great 3km forecast EHIs sunday - Wednesday next week per the latest gfs runs.
Hoping there is a trigger at some point.
I'm seeing great 3km forecast EHIs sunday - Wednesday next week per the latest gfs runs.
Hoping there is a trigger at some point.
chrisbray
EF4
Debating pulling trigger on meh setup sunday or waiting until midweek
chrisbray
EF4
What do people think about this upper low spinning over the middle of the US towards the end of this coming week? I'm thinking it looks like a really good setup across the Mississippi Valley THursday and Friday
chrisbray
EF4
Looks like one last big system pushing through this weekend. I'm eyeing Monday for a potential chase, anyone else?
Will Campbell
EF2
Looks like it could be an active week and weekend for sure. On a comedic side note, pretty sure I've read "one last system" or "last system before ridging" a couple times through this thread, but it just isn't happening. Troughs keep digging, and the pattern stays active on a near weekly basis, especially in the Missouri Valley. And even yet after this system ejects and exits to the east, the GFS in the model fantasy land has been consistently bringing another trough onshore from the Pacific. Just curious where the "one last big system" sentiment comes from?
