Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[James Gustina]

I've given up any real hope of the Plains doing anything big before the end of May. For me, the good news is that NW flow sets up across the Midwest after the trough that's currently sitting over Illinois right now. I know a lot of people hate chasing east of the Mississippi, but stationary fronts under modest NW flow can put out some pretty mean derechos/mini-sups out this way.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

IMO the repeated frontal intrusions bear a far greater share of responsibility for the southern plains problem than the drought...I firmly believe several of these mixed out deals of the last 2-3 weeks would have been much better events had the warm sector been established well in advance. After all, the southern high plains have been a disaster since 2011, and that didn't stop Oklahoma and Kansas from going gangbusters last May.

Going forward, I have low confidence in much of anything happening south of a DDC to ICT line, thanks to the "squeeze" we now have between this cold blast and the inevitable onset of the death ridge by early-June. As far as the northern plains, there's a lot of season left, so a lot can happen between now and the end of June. Fortunately, I have the flexibility to chase what comes, be it in North Dakota or Montana or wherever.

I am keeping on eye on this system progged around the 20th. The GFS and ECMWF depictions have substantial differences right now, so who knows if it will hang around long enough to draw up a decent warm sector. My guess is no, but time will tell.

 

[Michael Gavan]

So my 'chase-cation' starts this weekend and runs to June 1st... So I'll weigh in. I'm only able to look at the GFS right now though and I'm going to guess in that 150+ hr range the Euro won't see eye to eye. However I haven't seen too many consistency problems over the last few days either.

May 20th seems to be the start of something interesting specifically in the Midwest and maybe the central plains if we can get a few more degrees of dews out ahead (Doubtful). But what's really got my attention is that GFS wants to just hammer west and Central TX up to the panhandle for several days from about Wednesday to Saturday. I sure wouldn't mind parking out that way. Potential exists Monday and Tuesday in the northern and central plains, but Monday seems to be a cap bust so far. All major details aside, A full week of moisture building back in starting with Sunday 6/18, and several days of SW flow at the tail end of May. I can't see how this doesn't yield something. (Staying positive)

 

[Jon Strebler]

So my 'chase-cation' starts this weekend and runs to June 1st... So I'll weigh in. I'm only able to look at the GFS right now though and I'm going to guess in that 150+ hr range the Euro won't see eye to eye. However I haven't seen too many consistency problems over the last few days either.

May 20th seems to be the start of something interesting specifically in the Midwest and maybe the central plains if we can get a few more degrees of dews out ahead (Doubtful). But what's really got my attention is that GFS wants to just hammer west and Central TX up to the panhandle for several days from about Wednesday to Saturday. I sure wouldn't mind parking out that way. Potential exists Monday and Tuesday in the northern and central plains, but Monday seems to be a cap bust so far. All major details aside, A full week of moisture building back in starting with Sunday 6/18, and several days of SW flow at the tail end of May. I can't see how this doesn't yield something. (Staying positive)

I definitely haven't given up hope for some potential next week. Moisture is obviously a big issue this year, and I don't think that will change next week even though it wouldn't be as big of an issue into the Midwest and Central Plains. Capping may be a concern next week as well, but it's too early to get very far into those details. The ECMWF has been showing a trough setting up in the west, and I'm riding that for now because the Euro was rather steady in showing the potential for last Sunday while other models weren't.

 

[Derek Weston]

I definitely haven't given up hope for some potential next week. Moisture is obviously a big issue this year, and I don't think that will change next week even though it wouldn't be as big of an issue into the Midwest and Central Plains. Capping may be a concern next week as well, but it's too early to get very far into those details. The ECMWF has been showing a trough setting up in the west, and I'm riding that for now because the Euro was rather steady in showing the potential for last Sunday while other models weren't.

Looks like Tue/Wed could have opportunities. Although that wave quickly moves out and it doesn't seem as though there is anything else soon after. Kinda pathetic.

 

[James Gustina]

That trough looks like it might be it for the Southern Plains during May. Could still get lucky with an ok fall season though.

On another note, Ohio gave me a nice flipping of the bird today on the one day I could not chase. Brings back memories of my first four seasons back here. Nice looking tornado just a few counties out of reach.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looks like a major pattern change is in the mix beginning as early as Sunday. If the long range models are right, we could finally be seeing a "normal" end of May, with moisture sticking around for awhile.

W.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Just in time for my vacation! The Euro had moisture on the plains as early as Sunday (which is probably what Warren is talking about), before that trough setups in the southwest. Lets hope it doesn't eject too quickly and gives us some good solid days.

 

[Paul Knightley]

The High Plains should yield something next week, at least.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I feel confident there will be some opportunities to chase next week, but still I am thinking of shifting my trip back a bit. I can chase for two weeks max within a three-week window that starts next week. But if I choose to start next week, I cannot begin chasing until Tuesday (family plans on the weekend, then fly out Monday), and would have to return by Sunday June 1. But if I shift the trip back a week, returning on June 8, I can begin my trip on Memorial Day weekend. In fact, my office will be empty on the Friday before MDW, so I could even fly out late Thursday night and begin chasing on Friday 5/23. So if I just pass on Tue, Wed and Thu of the upcoming week, I get a later full week in return - net increase of four available chase days. Despite the uncertainty (that week ended June 8 could turn out to be worse than this upcoming week), I think the odds are in my favor just due to the increase in the number of days available.

 

[Logan Karsten]

I think the new title of this thread should be "Beginning Descent into Chase Season North of I-70" because it's becoming increasingly clear that the SGP is done. The trough next week hangs back, cuts off, and weakens significantly per the ECMWF. Anything beyond that will most likely impact northern plains and midwest as the jet stream begins it's move northward to summer.

 

[dixiealleyspotter]

Fingers crossed one more panhandle day thu 5-22 or fri 5-23!!!

 

[Brett Roberts]

The next 10 days or so look pretty rough for being the climatological peak of chase season. It's tough to think of any year where the latter half of May was relatively quiet that still managed to be a banner season; nevermind one in which very little had happened before that, either. At this point, I'm beginning to think a June 2005 or 2009 type comeback is pretty close to the best outcome we can realistically hope for, which would still make this a mediocre season overall (at best). Realistically, predictability beyond a week has been awful so far this spring, so it's not out of the question such a comeback could begin at the very end of May (even though I don't see much evidence in favor for now).

Depending on which model solution you buy, this period still doesn't look quite as awful as it was in years like 2006 and 2009. There should still be some convection, but deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells may be at a premium, and doubly so for tornado ingredients. Moisture continues to be an issue early next week, potentially limiting or eliminating convection on days where shear is actually decent.

If there's any silver lining whatsoever, the GFS, CMC and ECMWF all indicate fairly widespread, significant rains over the southern High Plains around the end of next week. If that verifies, perhaps the short-term drought could be less of a factor should we be lucky enough to get a few setups there in June.

 

[Dan Robinson]

This has been a season a little like 2006 where thinking outside of the box pays off - IE, considering setups outside of the traditional Great Plains "chase alley" and "peak season" if you're able. Chase vacationers who are tied to late May/early June will probably not want to stay home for these challenging/meager days, but anyone who is able to wait may find some unconventional days worth spending chase funds on later in the year. All that being said, I'm certainly hoping June will turn things around in the style of 2005. The good news is that I don't think I've seen so much precip indicated in the "cap generation" zones of Mexico and the southwest US this time of year. Could this result in mitigating the "nuclear cap" that usually would shut down the season following the upcoming pattern we're facing?

 

[JamesCaruso]

Well, for better or for worse, I am heading out next weekend and then have through June 7 available. I have already shifted my trip by a week, but delaying again is impractical. At some point I have to just take my chances; I can't keep my business calendar clear and my "real" life in limbo indefinitely. Plus I have a "normal" vacation with the family the first week of July, so need to show my face in the office for at least a few weeks between vacations

I am confident there will be some action, whether or not there are any classic set-ups. I have hope that the periods outside of model reliability still hold some good surprises. I like to think everything is just late this year, commensurate with winter's longer-than-usual hold on much of the nation.