Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[JamesCaruso]

Looks like moisture is once again shunted east with this next system on 5/7; still no moisture in the traditional west-of-I-35 chase territories of the Southern Plains...

So we are already a week into May without much to show for it. I can only hope this year will turn out to be like 2013, with all the action taking place in the two weeks I am on the Plains (starting sometime between 5/19 and 5/23).

Jim Caruso

 

[chrisbray]

What do people think about this coming weekend, possibly sunday? GFS is starting to show an impulse moving through on sunday at 500mb, with a small surface low and plenty of cape in east Kansas, west Missouri.

 

[Derek Weston]

So the ECMWF is projecting a nice bit of troughing Sunday and Monday... but again the better surface conditions are displaced to the east.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

What do people think about this coming weekend, possibly sunday? GFS is starting to show an impulse moving through on sunday at 500mb, with a small surface low and plenty of cape in east Kansas, west Missouri.

I think I'm willing to bet money this will change by Friday evening. I also think the GFS has been showing great setups 5+ days out only to get crushed by the NAM.

 

[Jon Strebler]

I think I'm willing to bet money this will change by Friday evening. I also think the GFS has been showing great setups 5+ days out only to get crushed by the NAM.

The ECMWF has been showing this potential for days. Do you have any reason why you think it will change, or are you just guessing based on what has happened so far this year?

 

[chrisbray]

The euro and the GFS are not in very good agreement with this system, it appears.

 

[Brett Roberts]

The euro and the GFS are not in very good agreement with this system, it appears.

Even with the ECMWF solution, moisture quality along the dryline Sunday is nothing short of appalling by May standards: mainly mid-upper 50s surface dew points. In fact, despite a synoptic pattern one would assume is a slam-dunk for significant severe at this time of year, the model predicts SBCAPE < 1000 J/kg along the dryline and no convective initiation. After that, a strong cold front crashes through the southern Plains on Monday, bringing nighttime temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

This year so far has been a rather stunning reminder of the climatological range of possibilities that apply even in the most severe-prone region on Earth. I think it's safe to say that if you look strictly at the Plains west of I-35, this is the worst year-to-date since sometime in the 90s, or possibly even the late 80s. We have two significant troughs over the next seven days that could potentially change that, but neither looks promising at all fright now.

 

[Jon Strebler]

Even with the ECMWF solution, moisture quality along the dryline Sunday is nothing short of appalling by May standards: mainly mid-upper 50s surface dew points. In fact, despite a synoptic pattern one would assume is a slam-dunk for significant severe at this time of year, the model predicts SBCAPE < 1000 J/kg along the dryline and no convective initiation. After that, a strong cold front crashes through the southern Plains on Monday, bringing nighttime temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

This year so far has been a rather stunning reminder of the climatological range of possibilities that apply even in the most severe-prone region on Earth. I think it's safe to say that if you look strictly at the Plains west of I-35, this is the worst year-to-date since sometime in the 90s, or possibly even the late 80s. We have two significant troughs over the next seven days that could potentially change that, but neither looks promising at all fright now.

I really hope that doesn't end up being the case, but at this point I wouldn't bet against it. I'm not counting this one out yet, it is May after all.

 

[chrisbray]

Fortunately for me, I am well, well east of I-35. But west missouri/east kansas is about the extent of my range from Illinois

Anyway, GFS is showing dews around 70 and LIs up to -10 in eastern OK/KS to western MO on sunday. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I, along with several other lurkers on this board that I talk to, have a good chuckle when people flip out on the lack of good setups. Brett nailed it, climatology here at its finest. This isn't the first time the plains have been this quiet, nor will it be the last. Lulls like this are normal. They're just usually spaced out further than we're used to. I'm sure someone can bring up specifics, but I'm willing to bet its been a couple of decades since we've been in such a pattern, a time before most of us were actively chasing.

 

[Warren Faidley]

This is certainly one of the worse years (so far) that I can remember from over 25 years of chasing in the Plains. We had years where weird things happened, like the year smoke from fires in Northern Mexico sent a veil over the plains and you could not see more than 20 miles. I don't see anything on the horizon model-wise, but things can change quickly. It could be a "June" month, but the cap could be an issue given the current pattern.

W.

 

[GPhillips]

Anyway, GFS is showing dews around 70 and LIs up to -10 in eastern OK/KS to western MO on sunday. Something to keep an eye on.

Verification of the GFS forecast dewpoints in eastern Kansas valid at 00Z, shows a high bias of 6 to 7 degrees F. The GFS MOS guidance on the other hand has a near zero bias. Don't place any confidence in the GFS raw grid forecasted dewpoints valid at 00Z, at least not around here.

 

[Mark Blue]

After this next system that's coming on Sunday/Monday, it looks like big trough east with some sort of east coast storm in the 10 day time frame. Brett hit on it with the cold temperatures. It looks like with the passing of this next cyclone (Sun/Mon) the associated cold front is going to scour the moisture out clear to the GOM coastline. I have a feeling the cold intrusions are going to persist for the near term, but that still leaves the latter half of May to go, so who knows?

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I hope everyone brought sunscreen for the next 10 days or so. Looks like the cold front is going to blow through the Caribbean. It'll take a very mighty trough to get any good moisture back in the plains. But don't expect much in the way of chase chances till maybe the end of May.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yes, it looks like the next chance of any good Plains chasing after this weekend will be after May 17th at the earliest. I remember a year like this back in the 1990's when similar front action destroyed about 75% of the season.

W.