chrisbray
EF4
Man, I HATE cold fronts!*
*except if it provides a good chase opportunity on sunday
*except if it provides a good chase opportunity on sunday
Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014
- Thread starter James Gustina
- Start date
Todd Rector
EF4
I hate to say this, but this awful season is entirely my fault. I jinxed it by buying all new camera gear in February.
Sorry, guys.
Sorry, guys.
James Gustina
Supporter
I don't know how I've managed to have a worse season than last year but I have. I've chased somewhere between Abilene and Wichita Falls every single day this season and it always ends up with the same story: high-based storms that never become sfc-based before the BL decouples. I'm essentially holding out for another big June a la 2010 back east with a few derecho days tossed in.
Marcus Diaz
EF5
I'd rather not work in 90°F heat, so bring them on!
I'm ready for June, when 50 dews on the front range means tornadoes. And gotta love NW flow in the panhandle. That's always a guarantee every year. May is overrated anyways.
chrisbray
EF4
What are people's thoughts for this weekend? I'm thinking Sunday in central Missouri to the Illinois border, looks like a decent setup?
Shane Adams
I'd rather not work in 90°F heat, so bring them on!
I'm ready for June, when 50 dews on the front range means tornadoes. And gotta love NW flow in the panhandle. That's always a guarantee every year. May is overrated anyways.
Now you sound like a guy who just isn't interested in roaming far from home base.
Marcus Diaz
EF5
I'll drive to the Dakotas, no problem, for a good setup. Its my wallet and new boss that aren't interested in me roaming far from home lol.
John Gnuechtel
EF3
The triple point on Sunday is hanging out there like a big meatball. I gotta figure others are eying it as well. It's gonna be hard to tie everything up here and get out there for it. ICT and TLX discussions aren't going crazy over it, and I'm a bit worried about huge crowds, since that'll probably be the only show in town. 50/50 at this point. Saturday could be one very long packing/oil change/tire rotation/driving day.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
LCL's are a big problem on Sunday out west. Could be yet another late day or early evening nightmare near I-35.
John Gnuechtel
EF3
You're not kidding. Pretty sure I'm gonna sit this one out and wait 'till the next week, since the attendant cold front is gonna nuke the GoMex right into the stone age. Here's hoping it improves...
Marcus Diaz
EF5
I've only been on 1 chase this year; the crappy high based crap on April 26. So, its time to finally bite on one of these 50/50 chances.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I'm hoping climatology eventually wins out, but even with the slow return of RH by May 20th., the NCEP Ensembles look grim for the rest of May.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ensmean_us_alltimes.html
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ensmean_us_alltimes.html
After reviewing the Euro model for the next 10 day period I noticed a similar setup to this last weekend for next Monday, May 19th, and looking okay for the next couple of days. By okay I mean trough west and high pressure in the east with decent wind fields, a synoptic scale front for lift, and modest moisture to work with. It also looks it's going to warm up in the southern and central plains, so that will no doubtedly mean a cap there.
Then I looked at the Canadian GEM for the same period and it paints a slightly different scenario. It appears slower by a day or more than the Euro with the progression of this next system and has a trough digging deep out west and possibly becoming a cut off low. Thus, the moisture doesn't return as quickly and even then it's not too whippy for the third week in May standards and doesn't show much promise until Wednesday, May 21st, which is about the timeframe you last mentioned Warren.
Overall I am glad to see another trough coming upstream despite model timing and differences and think there is some hope on the horizon. I can't chase farther than locally until June 1st, which should be close to the high plains chase season peak (I hope)!
Then I looked at the Canadian GEM for the same period and it paints a slightly different scenario. It appears slower by a day or more than the Euro with the progression of this next system and has a trough digging deep out west and possibly becoming a cut off low. Thus, the moisture doesn't return as quickly and even then it's not too whippy for the third week in May standards and doesn't show much promise until Wednesday, May 21st, which is about the timeframe you last mentioned Warren.
Overall I am glad to see another trough coming upstream despite model timing and differences and think there is some hope on the horizon. I can't chase farther than locally until June 1st, which should be close to the high plains chase season peak (I hope)!
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Logan Karsten
Welcome to 2014...... Hopefully things can return for one more southern plains tough before things shift north of I70. 
First note: given we're at the climatological peak of the SGP season, the title of this thread really is no longer appropriate
Second note: time for the "end of the season 2014" thread.
I'm not worried about the presence of large-scale troughs across the western US making it to the central US. We've seen a fairly reasonable set of those this year. The problem has been due to the building drought in the SW US. Setups are moisture starved and capped because of how dry and hot the soils are in the source regions of the cap. I don't see that changing in the next few weeks. As I claimed a few weeks ago, I think any decent setups across the SGP are probably done. Here's to hoping June offers more moisture for the setups that occur up north.
Second note: time for the "end of the season 2014" thread.
I'm not worried about the presence of large-scale troughs across the western US making it to the central US. We've seen a fairly reasonable set of those this year. The problem has been due to the building drought in the SW US. Setups are moisture starved and capped because of how dry and hot the soils are in the source regions of the cap. I don't see that changing in the next few weeks. As I claimed a few weeks ago, I think any decent setups across the SGP are probably done. Here's to hoping June offers more moisture for the setups that occur up north.
