samuel stone
EF3
The gulf doesn't really open up until about tuesday. there's an annoying elongated e-w high pressure center over the northern gulf until then with just a little moisture transport going on in the far western gulf coast
Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014
- Thread starter James Gustina
- Start date
The gulf doesn't really open up until about tuesday. there's an annoying elongated e-w high pressure center over the northern gulf until then with just a little moisture transport going on in the far western gulf coast
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Marcus Diaz
EF5
Hell yeah, let's get some setups in the Dakotas! I'm ready for some all nighters!
Paul Knightley
EF5
Quite right - and never truer than on May 31st, 2010, in SE Colorado!
I was being quite pessimistic with that post. I'm thoroughly disappointed with how pathetic April has been. I'm also apprehensive because the SGP region, especially W/NW TX and W OK/OK PH and into W KS and E CO, are pretty much free-falling into drought right now...during the climatologically wettest time of year for the region. And while the current CPC precip outlooks (day 6-10 and 8-14) show 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation for that region, the 7-day WPC QPF shows zero rain in that area. Also, the 336hr forecast from the 00Z (1 May) 30 km FIM8 shows only spotty 1" amounts in parts of the region and zero in other parts. Therefore, I have little hope that those areas are going to see anything but worsening drought conditions over the next few weeks. That does not bode well for chase opportunities not only in that region, but in regions downstream where those hot, dry boundary layers and caps are going to come from. Hence, I'm apprehensive that there will not be much more in the way of severe/chaseable opportunities in this region this year.
If you have the resources (the time and money), absolutely. Just realize that May 31st, 2010 was probably a 1% or 2% day, meaning you could chase 50 - 100 of days with basically the same setup and you'd get nothing 49/99 times.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Jeff - the factors you cite are indeed worrisome. My hope remains, though, that there will still be opportunities like there were last year. As we all know, last year's season was short and compressed - but, for chase vacationers like me, you couldn't have picked a better two-week period than May 18-31, 2013; there were a greater number of bonafide chase days that year than I ever had in a two-week timeframe since I began chasing in 1996 (my own lack of success last year notwithstanding). So I remain hopeful that there will still be some good opportunities sometime during this year's trip, which will be some to-be-determined two-week period between May 19 and June 6.
So what are your thoughts on 2013 as an analog for 2014? Are there factors leading you to believe we might not even get the short, compressed season we had last year?
So what are your thoughts on 2013 as an analog for 2014? Are there factors leading you to believe we might not even get the short, compressed season we had last year?
Shane Adams
I couldn't agree more. We'd been out the previous two days and woke up in OKC that morning. My target had been SE Colorado for three days leading up to that morning, but that was a "least crappiest area" IMO. I opted to pass based on the crap shear that was forecast. It sucked missing that event, but I don't regret the decision. Like you said, 99 other times out of 100 I'd have been right.
I haven't really thought that hard about an analog between 2013 and 2014. 2013 seemed to lack a lot of strong toughs. Troughiness hasn't been that big of a problem so far in 2014, although having a dominant western US ridge persist until earlier this month certainly didn't help matters. The big fly in the ointment so far in 2014 has been timing - the waves have been coming out during the times of day when instability was lacking. However, especially with these recent systems, moisture quality has started to become an issue. It's not unusual to have moisture issues in April, and I see there has been some very rich moisture in the NW Gulf (Tds before this last trough were well into the low-mid 70s via some buoys out there). However, the moisture was very slow to return despite how loaded the Gulf was with this last system, and I suspect at least part of that is due to the dry soils the moisture had to trudge across to get to the dryline region. Also, the moisture hasn't been very deep yet, although that's also not unusual. I'm still pessimistic, but that doesn't mean I'm right. Things could certainly turn around in May.
James Gustina
Supporter
Next Wednesday definitely has my attention now. Still 65F+ dews overspreading most of Oklahoma ahead of the dryline and the trough still looks well positioned for storms somewhere on the dryline. 50 knot H5 winds are definitely enough to get me out the door if I can get out of Norman in time. I'm cautiously optimistic until the GFS/Euro get within 4 days of it.
Logan Karsten
Again, be very careful reading into the GFS surface dew points that far out, they tend to be overdone.
James Gustina
Supporter
I doubt it gets up into the upper 60s considering both the GFS and the Euro prog pretty high sfc temps around 85-90 during the day, but I don't think moisture will be as big of an issue as the past few setups considering the GOM should be open at least two days in advance. Just my take on it though.
chrisbray
EF4
I'm exited about a possible setup into Illinois on Thursday if things keep unfolding this way!
samuel stone
EF3
as Mikey Gribble said. there are very few troughs that come through the plains in may and do not produce a tornado
James Gustina
Supporter
Looking like I might not even have to move too far from Norman next week if the GFS is to be believed.
Tim Supinie
EF2
I'm doubting the GFS's moisture signal for this coming week. It's in its summertime ET mode (crops transpiring like crazy), which is already blowing chunks on the 9-hour dewpoint forecasts.
9-hour 04/12Z GFS forecast dewpoint:
http://bit.ly/1ifERri
1-hour 04/20Z RAP forecast dewpoint:
http://bit.ly/1kzP4QE
The 12Z GFS is showing a large area of 60F+ dewpoints near the warm front and along the Mississippi river by 00Z tonight that I just don't see happening.
9-hour 04/12Z GFS forecast dewpoint:
http://bit.ly/1ifERri
1-hour 04/20Z RAP forecast dewpoint:
http://bit.ly/1kzP4QE
The 12Z GFS is showing a large area of 60F+ dewpoints near the warm front and along the Mississippi river by 00Z tonight that I just don't see happening.
