4/2/06, Severe Wx in the Midwest, Lower Great Lakes? (Too vague and uncertain for chase forecasts s

[Tony Lyza]

I was checking out the 12z GFS, and it seems to point to pretty nice system Sunday here in the Midwest/Lower Lakes. From 0z-12z Monday (Sunday evening), a 1002 mb low will move from SE IA, deepen to 997 mb, and end up in NE IN. There will be SE winds ahead of the the low pressure at the sfc, with SWly LLJ of up to 60 kts. That's nearly 90° of directional shear in the first 2000'! Add a 60kt 500mb jet, and I see the distinct possibilty for supercells in IL and IN. There is still a big question as to whether the instability will be there, so this isn't yet appropriate for the chase forecast thread.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The long-range forecasts are definitely encouraging for an active April, coming on top of the March events we've already had, and those that are expected to occur over the next couple days. If the atmosphere cooperates with me and my prospective chase partner's schedules, I could get some real chasing under my belt this month.

 

[Tony Lyza]

The long-range forecasts are definitely encouraging for an active April, coming on top of the March events we've already had, and those that are expected to occur over the next couple days. If the atmosphere cooperates with me and my prospective chase partner's schedules, I could get some real chasing under my belt this month.
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I'm hoping to get my first actual chase under my belt; if the trends for Sunday continue to point to supercells, I think it should be a go.