State of the Chase Season 2021

[Brett Roberts]

Well, just like that, we're back to the familiar hopeless outlook from a month ago... pining for the late May magic to stick around, deep layer shear be damned. The prospects for any organized, highly targetable, multi-day opportunities anywhere in the central U.S. for the first half of June appear slim to none. And don't forget:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400844961076039689

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400880905883840518

If we do manage to sneak workable CAPE/shear overlap into the Dakotas or E MT at some point next week, expect the severe ongoing drought to have its say in PBL profiles. The fact that the Minot record was set in 1988 is just the ultimate cherry on top.

The entirety of the central Plains from the Front Range east to ICT-DSM, on the other hand, are sitting lush and primed for something... anything... 30 knots, moisture, and a prayer... just a transient 40th percentile pattern from June climo, for god's sake. Maybe a grand finale shortwave or two sneaks in there by the third week of the month, if we're lucky?

 

[Jason N]

how about something cool happens next week while I'm out here lol...well it seems like the only potential if it holds is on the 7th as the warm front surges north like you said cape/shear day, and the PBL and the lack of moisture is gonna make it really questionable however, if the trend holds maybe there will be some nice LP structure at least.

 

[Jason N]

I know what you guys are thinking ... "yeah, good luck with that" ! I know I am to. Jeff Duda was right in saying live and die by GFS. I saw the trend in the trough 2 weeks ago, then GFS GEFS and CFS had me going and got me to swap my weeks.. and now that its here the ridge is going to be more dominant.. so I'm most likely knocked out of any real chances to see anything. end of may was the best shot but I couldn't go earlier.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Holding out hope for the THURS-FRI system progged to move across the Northern Plains/Midwest. Friday on the GFS looks probably about the best as anything we've seen here in IL/IA this spring (that isn't saying much) with 40kt NW flow and big CAPE. We will see if it holds, I won't hold my breath though. The day before could feature a Northern Plains (W SD/ND/MT) play as the jet stream starts positioning more toward the north as we get closer to the summer equinox.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Time to dust off this classic:

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Time to dust off this classic:

You know the state of the season is grim when this is what we're relying on for entertainment.

 

[Warren Faidley]

That is one of the funniest videos I've ever seen!!!!!

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I have been considering Eastern MT/Western ND tomorrow, but its a 17 hour drive from Western IL so probably not going to be doable unless something changes.

Wednesday doesn't look as great with Thursday being the big day of the stretch in E MT/W ND down perhaps into NE CO/W NE as moisture backs up against the high terrain and 40-50 knots of H5 flow overspreads the area with a generous low level jet toward 21-00z.

I feel as though in 2021 fashion one of the days either before (tomorrow or Wednesday) or after (maybe Friday or Saturday) will end up producing the most quality material out of this upcoming "stretch".

After that, things look pretty grim for the Midwest. It is June 7th and we have yet to have a tornado watch here in Illinois (only 1 SVR warning too in my county and for the whole CWA). I wonder how unusual it would be to go a whole year without a TOR watch. I can't recall it ever happening here before going back to 2000 and July/August isn't really the best time to see those around here (usually the choice is SVR with low end tor probs).

Last year I went almost the entire month of June without a single chase, with my only chase being a bust in Eastern IL on June 9th with TS Cristobal.

 

[Paul Lemery]

Time to dust off this classic:

Well Mr. Duda, I’ll be sending you the bill to clean up the pop I spit all over my iPad. Well done.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Well Mr. Duda, I’ll be sending you the bill to clean up the pop I spit all over my iPad. Well done.

All credit goes to @Wesley Luginbyhl. He is the one who made the video. He used to be active on this forum, too.

 

[Jason N]

I have been considering Eastern MT/Western ND tomorrow, but its a 17 hour drive from Western IL so probably not going to be doable unless something changes.

Wednesday doesn't look as great with Thursday being the big day of the stretch in E MT/W ND down perhaps into NE CO/W NE as moisture backs up against the high terrain and 40-50 knots of H5 flow overspreads the area with a generous low level jet toward 21-00z.

I feel as though in 2021 fashion one of the days either before (tomorrow or Wednesday) or after (maybe Friday or Saturday) will end up producing the most quality material out of this upcoming "stretch".

After that, things look pretty grim for the Midwest. It is June 7th and we have yet to have a tornado watch here in Illinois (only 1 SVR warning too in my county and for the whole CWA). I wonder how unusual it would be to go a whole year without a TOR watch. I can't recall it ever happening here before going back to 2000 and July/August isn't really the best time to see those around here (usually the choice is SVR with low end tor probs).

Last year I went almost the entire month of June without a single chase, with my only chase being a bust in Eastern IL on June 9th with TS Cristobal.

I was up there yesterday , there was some good structure, but its a really hard area to chase in really, mainly because the locations of the radars to where the storms were yesterday, made the average beam height around 8000-11,000 feet. I would post a pic to here, but I don't know if I would get in trouble. That said, I think although the dynamics weren't terrible yesterday, the DP depressions were pretty far apart putting LCL's pretty high, eventually they lowered a bit with continued moistening, but not before the storms really were too numerous in coverage and then consolidated into a line. and I think I see that same thing for the most part brewing for the 10th. I think I want to head further south, and risk better LCL's but trade off to possibly a CAP bust over NE/WY .. its been decent so far though, no real complaints.. caught a TOR warned cell in ND the other day in that 2% area... didn't produce, but definite wall..

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I decided to hold back in Illinois for what looks like pretty much a one day event that is around 16 hours away from me (tomorrow). The upcoming pattern doesn't look great for Midwestern severe weather over the next couple weeks. Maybe it is time to put the chase gear away (although with one eye on the local pattern) and enjoy what the summer does have to offer here (heat and humidity = swimming)?

I along with everyone else misses the years back in the 2000s when we would get chase ops from April-June non-stop, I'm sure one of these days we will get a season like that again, but for now we just have to learn how to roll with the punches I guess and deal with low probability setups that are far away.

I can agree to the sentiment that as time goes on it does get harder to get away (family/work/school obligations). I'm finding that my time is more valuable spent doing other things I enjoy than sitting in the car for days straight to drive to the Mexico or Canada border, but I'm willing to do it a few times a year to see that convection that won't come to me, so I guess that is good. I'm at the point in my life where I'm starting to build a family but.... I can say that I probably won't ever really get truly burnt out.... however it does get annoying seeing any appreciable setup being 12 or more hours away and nothing on long range ever panning out (synoptic scale systems) for the Midwest/Plains.

Maybe Late June into July will pick up and give us Midwest chasers a few times to step up to the plate and swing the bat.

 

[Jeff House]

I'm with Ethan on the family thing. Used to head out to the Plains 1-2 times a year for May troughs. This year had a kid recital which kept me out of the field week of May 24. And today is the second recital (different activity); so perhaps mercifully, I'm not 20 hours away from home.

Time to embrace Dixie Alley! We get reliable severe setups every March and April (though not usually very chasable). Used to punt early season. Now it must all be chased, because May is not guaranteed later. June sure isn't. See the Chase Season 2021 in Review thread, page 2 chart Brett posts.

Might have some northwest flow set up in the Midwest or Plains around June 18 (give or take a day) and for a few days. I still have not taken my trip; so for me, the state of the chase season is at least not over yet.

Then down South we have hurricane remnants recurve season. I've become more discerning on those. Forget it if the low is still moving northwest. Northeast or east motion is chase, especially if it's gained hybrid characteristics. If the long-range hurricane outlooks are correct, should be an active season. No way to predict South landfalls though.

State of my chase season is still the swirling circle when waiting for a slow website. However that's better than over, I suppose.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Yeah I knew I made a mistake by not going out yesterday. Sigh. I was telling someone today that this is the worst year I can EVER remember for local storms. Hands down, its not even a contest. I remember back in July 2003 when I first started chasing, we had moderate risk days like every other day that month and they either verified with tornadoes, derecho events, or huge hail. Nowadays we are lucky to get a marginal/see text the entire month. I'd personally rather see a foot of snow than this pulse storm type crap we are getting in early June.

And yeah I know there will be people that say "there are always good storms to chase", which I was part of that camp too. Until recently I found out I have a spinal injury and I probably won't be able to walk after 45 years of age due to damaged spinal discs.

Driving anymore than even 3 hours is excruciating pain for me and I'm on a lot of medications. And where I live, there isn't many people that like to chase setups in the mountains/upslope 15 hours away from here.

 

[Bobby Little]

ok sooo the thread reads:
State of the Chase Season 2021


Answer: SUCKS SO FAR.

I retired before the 2019 season. That season sucked! reminds me of this season.
2020 - COVID sucked + shitty season= Sucks again.
Brings us back to the thread.

i didnt get to chase the early years much..same things that you younger guys.. starting to age are going through. Family, jobs, responsibilities,pets, nagging wives,weddings, etc. So i always was waiting for retirement to give me all the chances and time to enjoy and take my time on different setups. Except for more funerals, i really have the time. But i really dont like driving out to OK,TX,KS from MI and all the setups dry up and become marginal at best. This years 2-3 day trip near the end of May was pathetic. logged 2500k miles and I didnt even bother to put a report in as i felt it was lukewarm with all the others. If you look back to Event posts in May, this year we had maybe 4 i think. 5 for last year, and maybe 8 in 2019. That should also tell you sometihing