State of the Chase Season 2021

[Matt Hunt]

yeah, if I were out there today I would probably be sitting in Garden/Scott city... on that note I think I am going to cancel for this upcoming week. its just not looking good.. gonna swap to 4 - 12 June.

I just so happen to already be in Garden City! Jackpot! Was thinking the exact same thing, may scoot north just a bit, but we'll see how conditions play out. That really escalated quickly from 5% yesterday up to 15% hatched!

Yeah, as for the long-term outlook, I'm thinking I may be heading home after this weekend, or possibly even after tomorrow, since it looks like there will be some down days, then maybe some northern plains action heading into the following weekend. I could come back out for that, as I'm just about 9 hours from Cheyenne.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Well it’s amazing how a two week chase vacation starts with promise and then all hope is lost in the blink of an eye. A couple of good days to start this past Sun and Mon, a day off on Tue, a massive forecast fail targeting SW KS on Wed, but hey there are still 10 days left!!! Oh, wait, today sucks, maybe some NM table scraps over Memorial Day Weekend, and then you can basically put Chase Vacation Week Two in the crapper with a west coast ridge and northwest flow across the Plains. Amazing how it all vaporizes so fast, after all the hope and anticipation. Anybody else ever ask themselves if it’s worth investing so much time, money and emotion in a hobby where we have almost no control over our experiences??? I guess if I lived out here and took the good days when they were available it would be OK, but these chase vacations are starting to feel ridiculous. I suspect I will be heading home just after Memorial Day and saving the money and the vacation time.

 

[Dean Baron]

Anybody else ever ask themselves if it’s worth investing so much time, money and emotion in a hobby where we have almost no control over our experiences???

A bit off topic but I think it’s important to vent. Might be more appropriate to start a different thread but I’ll leave that to the mods to decide.

I asked myself this a lot last year. The entire 12 hour drive home from NW KS back home over Memorial Day weekend after a bust, all I could think about was why I wasted basically my entire long weekend for pretty much nothing. I took PTO today and tomorrow in anticipation of chasing, only to end up deciding to sit out today’s setup which means I took time off work to just sit at home I can only imagine the frustration of chasers who take long chasecations. Might be time to look for other hobbies to fill the void. I personally took up fishing more the last couple years...

 

[Jason N]

Well the SW KS was the spot. I think the late afternoon Cirrus shield that developed killed a lot of potential CI. that said, the first parent cell that tracked over towards Hays appeared to be the one that folks figured, "its Bait!!" - lets wait it out.. the Meso-analysis and the HRRR won't let us down! ... but from posted videos the cell up in Benkelman NE was also a really nice one, but terrain was probably an issue for most because I saw very few chasers up there.

.. ok Topic shift ... I don't wanna get in trouble lol.

it appears now that the Trough/Ridge trend for the week of 5-12 June is looking somewhat improved with trough development over the Wrn US as per current trends of the CFS/GFS/GDPS ... So I think I am making a good call in delaying. but it appears the locations will be possibly shifted north to the dakotas possibly.. still way too far to tell for sure.

 

[Jason N]

Was just looking at our Monthly Climatic Briefing for the MJO, so to go along with what I was seeing in the coming weeks

 

[Dave C]

Well it’s amazing how a two week chase vacation starts with promise and then all hope is lost in the blink of an eye. A couple of good days to start this past Sun and Mon, a day off on Tue, a massive forecast fail targeting SW KS on Wed, but hey there are still 10 days left!!! Oh, wait, today sucks, maybe some NM table scraps over Memorial Day Weekend, and then you can basically put Chase Vacation Week Two in the crapper with a west coast ridge and northwest flow across the Plains. Amazing how it all vaporizes so fast, after all the hope and anticipation. Anybody else ever ask themselves if it’s worth investing so much time, money and emotion in a hobby where we have almost no control over our experiences??? I guess if I lived out here and took the good days when they were available it would be OK, but these chase vacations are starting to feel ridiculous. I suspect I will be heading home just after Memorial Day and saving the money and the vacation time.

Not to get too off topic but I like to try to plan other things to enjoy if I will be on an extended chase vacation away from home, such as digging for fossils, seeing the sights, or just snoozing in a nice hotel room. Otherwise, since good synoptic setups are rare I have largely modified my chasing in recent couple years to pursue targets of very good opportunity only, ignoring dodgy setups like today, and I either work or spend down days doing something at home. To me no sense commiting to a long period of chasing when the odds are only a few days will line up the ingredients for a worthwhile chase. The last few years the jet stream is apparently broken for chasing over good terrain, so you either need a tactic to take the subtler setups when you can, or yea maybe it isn't a good activity to pursue if it causes more grief than fun. I still love getting out there and even one good day, like yesterday in Nebraska, can make a season feel good.

Even in a bad year, June into July is almost assured to have a couple one off opportunities somehwere in the central or northern plains if you can make yourself available. Last July, the least active year I can remember, there was a great structure day in Wyoming. If you live far from those types of days or you cannot take shorter trips to chase, that might be a challenge, but the opportunities will be there. With the jet stream like it is and most forecasts dependent on shortwaves or split flow, looking out too far is not good for planning when to chase.

 

[Jason N]

I agree whole heartedly with your statement in principle. since I live far enough away , I can't just drive. I have to fly. but like you I'll have things to do in between. Parks visits, grasslands, photo ops in many places when there isn't something else going on.. I just try and look for a period where its not all my vacation with Zero days of anything worthwhile risk wise... like I think it would have been if I left this Friday. instead I think if the pattern shifts again, it may end up being like this week was.. and that's enough.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Not to get too off topic but I like to try to plan other things to enjoy if I will be on an extended chase vacation away from home, such as digging for fossils, seeing the sights, or just snoozing in a nice hotel room. Otherwise, since good synoptic setups are rare I have largely modified my chasing in recent couple years to pursue targets of very good opportunity only, ignoring dodgy setups like today, and I either work or spend down days doing something at home. To me no sense commiting to a long period of chasing when the odds are only a few days will line up the ingredients for a worthwhile chase. The last few years the jet stream is apparently broken for chasing over good terrain, so you either need a tactic to take the subtler setups when you can, or yea maybe it isn't a good activity to pursue if it causes more grief than fun. I still love getting out there and even one good day, like yesterday in Nebraska, can make a season feel good.

Even in a bad year, June into July is almost assured to have a couple one off opportunities somehwere in the central or northern plains if you can make yourself available. Last July, the least active year I can remember, there was a great structure day in Wyoming. If you live far from those types of days or you cannot take shorter trips to chase, that might be a challenge, but the opportunities will be there. With the jet stream like it is and most forecasts dependent on shortwaves or split flow, looking out too far is not good for planning when to chase.

The MODs can decide, but I think it’s on-topic, because it’s all about chase (vacation) strategy in a crappy season (or string of seasons...) Personally, I don’t mind having down days, and look forward to the time to catch up on work (mitigates the impact of being gone two weeks, which is difficult given my position and level of responsibility). Just having time to read would be very appealing to me. The problem is when the days are so “busy” with forecasting and driving to targets on days that turn out to be worthless, or long repositioning drives for Day 2 opportunities that also turn out to be worthless. Completely unproductive days, no chasing success and no time for alternative activities. The only way around this is to simply avoid the marginal days, as you suggested, but when you only have two weeks you need to optimize every day. Not to say I wouldn’t bail on certain days, especially if the drive isn’t worth it, but it’s probably a different risk/reward or cost/benefit calculation than you might have living in Denver. Bottom line, I don’t mind a couple down days, as long as they are actual down days that I can do other stuff. But when it’s in the second week, and there appears to be nothing but down days, it’s time to go home. I start to feel the gravitational pull of professional and personal responsibilities that are piling up, and it’s hard to justify to myself why I’m out here if the chasing is not productive.

Anyway, it’s hard to believe here I am with 9 days left in a 14 day chase trip yet I feel like it’s already over. I mean look at the calendar, we’re talking May 28 - June 5!

 

[Matt Hunt]

Well it’s amazing how a two week chase vacation starts with promise and then all hope is lost in the blink of an eye. A couple of good days to start this past Sun and Mon, a day off on Tue, a massive forecast fail targeting SW KS on Wed, but hey there are still 10 days left!!! Oh, wait, today sucks, maybe some NM table scraps over Memorial Day Weekend, and then you can basically put Chase Vacation Week Two in the crapper with a west coast ridge and northwest flow across the Plains. Amazing how it all vaporizes so fast, after all the hope and anticipation. Anybody else ever ask themselves if it’s worth investing so much time, money and emotion in a hobby where we have almost no control over our experiences??? I guess if I lived out here and took the good days when they were available it would be OK, but these chase vacations are starting to feel ridiculous. I suspect I will be heading home just after Memorial Day and saving the money and the vacation time.

Absolutely! Having the dilemma now, deciding if I want to just pack it up and head home tomorrow, or make the now long drive down to SE NM, since I moved toward home (ID) to Fort Collins today. Would be a long drive to get down there, and may be cutting it close with storms tomorrow, but does look like 3 days in the same area. But will it be worth it? It seems each day has a very narrow corridor of instability without CINH. I'm afraid of a situation similar to yesterday happening down there. May be able to get initiation, but storms will move out of that uncapped environment pretty quickly. Just don't know if it's worth it for the miles, the gas money, and the lodging for 3 more nights, when I have not had a good chasecation thus far. I'm kind of burned out and just thinking of saving that money for other vacations later in the year. Oh, the joys of being a storm chaser, haha! It looks a lot easier on TV! Hahaha!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I'm pretty much in the same boat as you, James. Busted hard in KS Wednesday and today was just doomed from the start. Especially frustrating since I was in Holeridge, NE by noon on Wednesday with the choice to keep going west to McCook or drop into KS...both targets looked viable at that point and I hunched that (a) the anvil blowoff from the early stuff in KS would become an issue in NE and (b) the warm front would be typically grungy (think Wayne 10/4/13 or Lawrence/Lindwood 2019) and grow upscale quickly as depicted by CAMs (which it kind of did, but not before some nice tornadoes).

When was the last time an anticipated bimodal (i.e. TP/WF+dryline) regional tornado outbreak actually panned out for both targets in the Plains (or Midwest, say IA AND IL/WI, not just one or the other)? Feels like it has been ages. Like 5/29/04. Maybe 4/14/12 or a couple of those days in May 2013?

Another thing about Wednesday, too is that while the entire event didn't bust it was yet another day where the best/even jaw-dropping tornado parameters as depicted on forecast soundings were supposed to come together near/after 00Z with the LLJ kicking in but by that point storms were either already in an unfavorable mode (NE) or couldn't become sustained (KS).

 

[Jason N]

James, Matt and Andy.. all you guys hitting some good points and Hope the Mods don't think its bad form, but, it's a personal Calculus I think of what defines a successful chase. From the early planning phase before you even get there (i.e. staring at all the 15-30 pattern ) to the day 5 then Day 3 and finally staring at Meso-analysis on Tday(I made that up just now, its Tornado-Day). But to James's point about re-positioning, that's definitely a truth. many times I've been out, finishing a day, and then having already glanced at the tomorrow's picture, have been in the seat saying, do I really want to drive 4-6hrs tonight after the 12hr day I just had , just to get closer geographically to a similar condition tomorrow? I mean yes I've done that, but the truth is sometimes it's just not worth the stretch if the conditions end up being nearly the same, just shifted in position.. I'll wait it out past then to pick the next best location the following day provided conditions present it. I think as long term chasers, we make those decisions all the time, with what we are given for seasonal changes, personal time off , what's going on in our lives etc. for me, as I have said, its 50% science 50% passion, I treat it similarly to maybe like going to Vegas, I realize in advance I may be wasting some money, but dammit I am going to enjoy it , because I know I can afford it, I wouldn't even go if I know might be stretching my funds. Like James, I am in a higher level position and we all have work responsibilities on some level. but when I personally am on vacation, that's what I am doing. and in between chases, like you guys said.. find something to do or just chill.. pick out as Andy said in his post, forecast review, or find some lessons learned from previous day. I am not saying andy was guilty of this, but I know for me, there have been times where I placed an over reliance on saying, "all the best conditions are right where I am at(while storms are going on that are chase worthy elsewhere), I'll wait it out, the models say CI is gonna happen.. keep staring , keep staring .. Oooo there it is.. the clouds popped its going up! .. and then fizzle (WTF screams in my head) in other words I think we have all had bust days lol and it sucks.

 

[Jeff House]

I think Rozel is a more recent multiple target verification day. Warm front (nw KS) went along with Rozel on the outflow boundary. Farther south on the dry line busted; so, I guess it really has been a decade since a full string of pearls verified on the Plains. One could argue 5/22/19 spread out chasers with multiple cyclical supercells; but, they were all kind of Oklahoma.

Looks like starting around June 5-6 a northern Rockies trough could bring goods to the Northern Plains. Probably High Plains too. That leaves a couple options. 1. Do nothing for a week. 2. Chase the marginals from New Mexico to Stockton; then, have a leisurely 2-day reposition drive to the North and/or High Plains. Big Bend NP, Guadalupe NP, and Carlsbad Caverns make good bust activities.

That's actually a good Plan C. See those national parks, and reaction chase if it looks good. Then head back north for next weekend. I'm not sure if that's much fun chasing solo. With a partner I'd surely stay out there.

All hypothetical to me. PDS family keeps me in Tenn. Oh when it's cooler than normal in the Southeast, you hike!

 

[John Farley]

For those of you in the Permian Basin area, all of Jeff's suggestions are good for down day activities. Another I would add, a little farther north (maybe a travel break if you are heading north for the northern setup later in the week) is the UFO Museum in Roswell - well worth the visit if you have never been. For those with fixed chasecation times, things like those can add to your overall experience.

One other thing occurs to me - with fixed chasecations, it is easy to get very caught up in the ups and downs of the time you are out there, leading you to judge your season by the most recent chase or the next day's setup or lack thereof. For example, James was talking a few posts back about the coming downtime making his chasecation a questionable undertaking, yet a few days earlier he reported having an all-time top 3 chase. I am retired and do not have to take fixed chasecations, but if I did, I think I would count any trip that included a top 3 all-time chase as a success.

 

[Bobby Little]

Chased for 2 days so far and probably gonna bail on the next 2 days and head back to Michigan. This period reminds me exactly of 2019 2nd week of May then.Cant see adding 6 hr target area just to add the same amount to the return home trip. Very frustrating as target area yesterday was rainwrapped .Wed was a little better..hill city, McCook,.colby.. Good luck to all who stay

 

[JamesCaruso]

@John Farley you are right of course, thanks for that, sometimes an objective viewpoint is the reminder needed to gain a proper perspective.

Sort of makes me wonder if lots of us lamenting the lack of quality seasons, myself included, are suffering from recency bias. I mean I remember joking with chase partners about how “our misery would soon be over” on frustrating, unproductive trips all the way back in the late ‘90s and early 2000s... And individual chase vacation periods are all that matter to a chase vacationer, but that’s just one data point for the overall season. For example I have seen most chasers on here generally lament 2013 as a poor season because there was minimal activity outside of a two-week period, but man that last two weeks of May was unbelievable, almost every single day had opportunities and there were three historic events (Rozel, Moore, El Reno). Never mind that I missed them all (actually flew home the morning of El Reno, as originally scheduled but failed to extend by a day) and had a comedy of errors every day, but I always look back on that as one of the most active and intense chase vacations ever.