State of the Chase Season 2021

[Jason N]

That's what I've been tracking as well, but there have been obviously a lot of shifts in the 500/850mb, but those variances from north to south / east to west are tightening up and fore the most part the region has remained fairly consistent and KS,OK seem more plausible as time goes on from the 28th to the 30th but the door shuts off almost completely after that as that upper cut off low forms. I arrive a little after 5pm next friday in Wichita, and if I am lucky, I just may be driving towards development just after landing, and hope I can get to something good before magic hour.... while hoping nothing develops right over the airport before I get there! lol.

 

[Andy Berrington]

Needless to say, NWP has shifted markedly such that the upcoming 7-10 days should be a lot more active than I'd feared last week. Although the pattern isn't completely flawless and may still lack a true slam-dunk synoptic setup, there should be so many days with opportunities -- some pretty solid, even -- that it would be surprising not to net multiple quality tornadoes and/or high-end structure days from the remainder of the month. This is the first time I've felt pretty good about the pattern inside of 7-day lead time all year, and probably since May 2019. Another bonus is that the centroid of opportunities the next 10 days may be focused on the least drought-afflicted subregion of the Plains (although OK/TX have really made some strides the past week anyway). Bottom line: if you're out on chasecation any time between tomorrow and Memorial Day, I'd be low key pumped. Hopefully this stretch can also deliver for central Plains residents who've been left out of the TX fun so far, too.

And now the 00z GFS comes in showing a complete and utter disaster.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

And now the 00z GFS comes in showing a complete and utter disaster.

Never get hope.

 

[Jason N]

yeah those run to run shifts still this far out, super annoying. and the trend in the 500mb for the past 3 days 00Z runs focusing on 28/29th at 00Z is to shift everything to the left and filling the Trof moving out of Canada. while the 12Z solution has a closed low riding the US/CN border. and the 06Z seems to follow somewhat the same pattern as the 12Z, just the closed low is further north into Canada putting more WSW flow over KS/OK. so in general the model is having a tough time resolving the strength/speed/location of the ridge over the East and the Trough moving into the Northern US/CN. The ECMWF is suggesting there's going to be a stronger trof and more potential activity but over OK vs. KS. By Tuesday, the other models will start plucking away and I think we'll know more about the ridge and trof .

 

[Andy Wehrle]

And now the 00z GFS comes in showing a complete and utter disaster.

I saw that just before going to bed last night, thought about posting but just kind of rolled my eyes and went to bed.

Today's 12Z, mercifully, recovers somewhat for next Wednesday through the following weekend, but we're still too far out to know much (any) detail about these potential setups (location, timing, ceiling, etc).

 

[Jeff Duda]

You live by the deterministic GFS...you die by the deterministic GFS.

Use the GEFS. It has been more consistent.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Arrived in DEN today as originally scheduled. Was unable to get out here earlier as I had (unrealistically) hoped. Didn’t matter for Friday which was a bust, but I imagine today must have been fun in CO, looking forward to seeing some reports. But I did get to see my daughters’ dance recital today, which was great.

Chasing alone this year and don’t quite feel like driving all the way up to SD and chasing in bad terrain / road network on Sunday, only to return back down toward NEB/KS on Monday. So I am probably going to focus on NE CO / SW NEB / NEB PH on Sunday and take my chances.

Next big decision is what to do Monday/Tuesday. I have to participate remotely in a board meeting on Tuesday morning from 9-12. Limited time to forecast, and limited time to drive. Depending on how far apart Monday and Tuesday chase targets are, I may have to choose one at the expense of the other...

Other than that, I generally try to take it day by day once I am out here, and stop worrying about the longer-range models. (I am out until June 5.) Although if the first week is not productive, I know I’ll start looking for hope in Week Two. And if that doesn’t look good I’ll go home early and save the vacation time. Too many professional and personal responsibilities are always pulling me back home, so it’s hard to justify staying out here if I’m just jerking around with no bonafide chase opportunities.

 

[Jason N]

Well James, I think you could possibly have some success if you play out around Scottsbluff to North Platte and south down to Laird, CO if you felt like it today. Brush, CO would be the place I'd probably stage, the terrain isn't 'terrible' in those areas, and its on the south end of the enhanced.. The 10m winds are still fairly backed around those areas and the dry line looks pretty solid. Might actually be a pretty nice day out there, even if it turns out to be structure and hey with the mid level pattern out there, could be a tail-end-charlie multi-cell run out there

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Have we ever gone an entire May (I suppose it might have happened last year, too...) without an actual outlined area ever being issued on the Day 4-8 outlook (although, 5/2 and 5/3 did have 15% areas out for them in the outlook issued on 4/29 and 5/3 again on 4/30, but that's it)?

If some of these "higher-end" (as per *some* of the GFS runs) days later this coming week/Memorial Day weekend don't start coming together more consistently, it might happen.

 

[Jeff Duda]

4-8 day outlooks are pretty new, so even if that did happen, it might not be that unusual.

 

[Dean Baron]

Optimism about the end of the week is trending down. Model consistency is definitely not great. It’ll be interesting to evaluate things once it’s in range of the NAM. Hopefully this weekend in Colorado isn’t the peak of the season.

 

[Jason N]

I often wonder why SPC even went out that far in advance when nothing is really even that trustworthy to begin with. even probabilities are subject to the conditional member and chaos over time like anything else, especially after 120-200hrs. I can see the Day 4 thing working out. But as of late, there are alot of times the SPC will put polygons over one particular geographic area on day 3 that start in a general category and then by Day1 that same area ends up in a enhanced. I've seen that several times, So I'm not sure its wise to go further than day 4. just my tiny opinion of course, and they are doing it anyway. but like any model, its also knowing Biases and confidence. it is just something that I think everyone has to do and know that models will never be 100% on 100% of the time. you are doing really good at 75-85%. That said, it still surprises me to see the SPC adjusting alot more than I remember in the past.

 

[Mikayla Norris]

Speaking of SPC outlining areas beyond Day 3, the most recent outlook has a 15% area for Thursday, Day 4 over much of OK into parts of KS and MO. Take that for whatever it's worth I suppose.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I'm heading out again for a few days this week, although my optimism has trended down significantly from what it was when I returned from my last trip on Saturday (was gone for a week). This pattern is starting to feel like I fell asleep and woke back up in 2014 and it's on repeat. Let's hope there is a Mid-June payout I guess? Either way I'll be chasing my way back east from WED in Nebraska to probably shelf cloud chasing on Thursday in IL lol.

 

[Bobby Little]

I'm heading out again for a few days this week, although my optimism has trended down significantly from what it was when I returned from my last trip on Saturday (was gone for a week). This pattern is starting to feel like I fell asleep and woke back up in 2014 and it's on repeat. Let's hope there is a Mid-June payout I guess? Either way I'll be chasing my way back east from WED in Nebraska to probably shelf cloud chasing on Thursday in IL lol.

You can pass the baton to me Ethan. I am heading out east to west. Nebraska wed.. on the way out. Eyeing an few days this coming week. If it is a dud, my wife and i can always find a burger and a beer while targeting.