State of the Chase Season 2021

[Greg McLaughlin]

Somehow I managed to put my house up for sale during the month of May. My wife and I are hosting an open house this weekend. Needless to say I will not be able to chase this weekend, so my focus is already on next week and beyond. Overall I am fairly optimistic about chasing prospects to close out May and going into June. The overall pattern appears to feature western to central CONUS troughing and eastern ridging. Embedded smaller disturbances look to traverse the Plains into the upper Midwest on nearly a daily basis with a sloshing dryline across the southern and central Plains. Nothing really suggests a higher end outbreak, however the potential for some mesoscale mayhem is definitely in the cards. While the details differ between the various medium range models, the consensus is for a favorable overall background state for multiple days of storm chasing prospects. I see not everyone is as optimistic, however so far this spring we continue to see quality supercell/tornado events with nearly every system that traverses the central U.S. I am hoping Kansas will get in on some of that action soon.

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

Obviously the pattern is less than ideal for large scale outbreaks, but it looks like we’re heading into a pattern where we’ll see at least a SLGT or ENH risk on the plains most days. And those days can often yield some pretty memorable supercells. I’m just liking the fact that there won’t be a death ridge for my chasing vacation next week, we can work out the details later.

 

[Jason N]

well, it's official now 28May to 04June .... having watched the GFS / CFS evolve like many of you over the past week or two , goodness, now there's a massive closed low developing after the 309Hr over Cntrl CONUS .. hell the CFS for the same time frame is more promising! and that's scary, lol.... you know, there's plenty to say here, but why. best thing to do is to see what changes as GFS crawls down to 186HR lol.. I think its going to be a bit more reliable there. ( grasshopper ) .

 

[Jeff Duda]

309Hr

As far as synoptic pattern goes, you can pretty much stop there.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I’m just liking the fact that there won’t be a death ridge for my chasing vacation next week, we can work out the details later.

I hope you're right.

 

[Jason N]

agreed I don't even like to go beyond 264 tbh.

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

I hope you're right.

View attachment 21658

Yeah that looks less than ideal but fortunately I’m out there from this Saturday until next Friday (maybe Saturday). And while this map for that timeframe isn’t perfect, it’s pretty damn good.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

Maybe by June we'll see some synoptic scale signal return??? (Ha...)

June of 2025, perhaps.

 

[Jeff House]

Southwest flow is forecast 2-3 days late next week over the southern Plains. It's the sub-tropical jet, so not at all classic. However if a closed low can produce in West Texas (earlier this week) the forecast sub-tropical jet would too.

Even that Texas ridge chart for June is not season over. Northern Plains can get waves over the top. Like a choppy stock pickers market, there will be mesoscale setups for those who put in the effort.

 

[Jason N]

Im FULL of Effort!!

 

[Jason N]

Actually , as GFS has gotten a little closer to my time frame, its beginning to look like there might be 3 solid days . and as I'll be based out of Wichita, things are looking alright so far in terms of travel to conditions on the 28th and 29th. if the pattern holds. and then a drive over to Illinois on the 1st to try for a Skip Talbot cut off low ( yeah I watched that video! no shame ).

 

[Matt Hunt]

I don't put much stock into anything past 7 days, and even at that point, it often changes quite a bit as the day draws closer. I see some promise for next week, at least. It's pretty odd to have such low CAPE forecast in late May, though. Hopefully GFS is underestimating.

 

[Jason N]

yeah, I agree on the stock part. what I have been mainly trying to look for going just beyond 168hrs to say around the 248hr period is run to run similarity as a whole in the 500mb and maybe the 850 to see how things are shifting and lining up. that's really all you can gleen I think. beyond that, its major crap shoot. timing/location will almost always shift. but I am more looking at, is the trough still there? or has it been replaced by a ridge. is one deepening or filling etc.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Needless to say, NWP has shifted markedly such that the upcoming 7-10 days should be a lot more active than I'd feared last week. Although the pattern isn't completely flawless and may still lack a true slam-dunk synoptic setup, there should be so many days with opportunities -- some pretty solid, even -- that it would be surprising not to net multiple quality tornadoes and/or high-end structure days from the remainder of the month. This is the first time I've felt pretty good about the pattern inside of 7-day lead time all year, and probably since May 2019. Another bonus is that the centroid of opportunities the next 10 days may be focused on the least drought-afflicted subregion of the Plains (although OK/TX have really made some strides the past week anyway). Bottom line: if you're out on chasecation any time between tomorrow and Memorial Day, I'd be low key pumped. Hopefully this stretch can also deliver for central Plains residents who've been left out of the TX fun so far, too.

 

[Dean Baron]

Like Brett, I’ve been watching the end of next week closely for a while now. The 12z GFS has given me enough confidence to finally pull the trigger on taking PTO Thursday and Friday. If the 12z verified we could have 3-4 days in a row of solid opportunities and I could park myself in central Kansas for most of it. I haven’t done a multi day trip in a long time so I am excited about the potential right now. Having said that, part of me is worried that things will go to crap now I have actually taken a couple days off.