State of the Chase Season 2021

[JamesCaruso]

Greg - I like Monday better than Tuesday. I have not done any in-depth analysis, but based on SPC Day 3 it sounds like Tuesday starts with ongoing convection and continues with multiple rounds, so I would fear a crap fest. The position of the 500mb trough and orientation of related vorticity seem to bear this out.

I have concerns about Monday too, as it appears the better flow lags behind (west of) the moisture, at least in the southern TX panhandle and southwest TX. Moisture and 500mb flow seem a bit better co-located near Amarillo and there may be a warm front nearby, but that’s further from Dallas (unless you want to add a connection to AMA - could be a bad selection of rental cars though). Not saying it’s worth a ton of trouble to get out there, but I think it does look better than Tuesday, so if you could just make your flight to Dallas a little earlier... I haven’t done enough analysis to pick a target, but you’d be within about three to five hours from targets ranging from Childress to Lubbock. You can even get to Amarillo in 5.5 hours. Maybe take a late flight today.

Haven't looked at anything beyond Tuesday yet, so I can’t help there, but just from the buzz here on ST I wish I could head out to start my two weeks now instead of waiting until this weekend. If I could chase three weeks then I would definitely head out for tomorrow, if for no other reason than to shake off the rust with a couple of marginal chase days after not chasing at all since 2019.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Yesterday apparently produced a nice photogenic diamond in the rough, and today should be a good day to chase if you don't mind losing a windshield...

 

[Joey Prom]

I had both my chase partners back out on me at the last minute. I was hoping to head out Thursday evening, make a play on the setups starting Friday. I have a car with great gas mileage and tires. I have 10 days off I can spend whenever I want until June 13th. I should have someone to chase with starting June 1st, but I really don't want to miss the good May setups to end the year. I am interested in carpooling, but failing that, I will settle for caravanning. I just don't look forward to having to do all the driving. Thanks for reading this, sorry if this is the wrong channel for it. Have a great one!

 

[James Wilson]

Man the last two days have overperformed! Congrats to all that were able to get out and see the amazing structure and tornadoes.

I am encouraged at the chance for multiple chase days next week if things continue to shape up as the CAMs show. Looks like an active pattern including the first trip up north this year for me. My girlfriend is having total knee replacement surgery tomorrow so hopefully she will not need my help recovering next week.

 

[Jason N]

This was down near Lubbock yesterday. I was not the one taking the photo, Person I know who's brother lives there.

 

[Dean Baron]

Memorial Day weekend and a day or two on either side of it continues to look like it could be active. I’m really hoping it looks promising enough where I can confidently request a few days off work to make a play on it. I’m not driving from Minneapolis to OK or TX for a one day set up but if I can get a couple days out of it I’m all for it.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Yes it's the GFS and yes it's 258 hours out, but it's had this general look for this timeframe for several runs and it's the prettiest thing we've had to look at on the models in a long time. South-central KS just north of the OK border:

 

[JamesCaruso]

So now I’m in this mode where I’m really stressing out about whether to keep my original plans to fly out Saturday afternoon and start chasing Sunday, OR whether to fly out Thursday night to also chase Friday and Saturday, which appear promising based on a very quick look at just 500mb flow and surface dew points (all I had time for). It would be a real scramble to leave work a day early and would also have to miss my daughters’ dance performance on Saturday. Not sure it’s worth all the stress and aggravation to rush out. Would appreciate the thoughts of others who may have looked more closely at the situation.

If it looked like this would be the only action for awhile, it would be a different decision. But it looks like more action is in the pipeline, although maybe a lull for part of next week. What Andy posted above is intriguing. I have not looked at that run of the GFS yet, but based on last nights 0Z run valid at the same time it seems consistent. What’s interesting is that at 240 hours (from last night‘s run and valid a full day prior to the valid time of Andy’s sounding above), the GFS has much higher heights than the Euro, e.g. 576 dam line way up in WY/SD on GFS and in CO/KS on Euro. Yet the GFS still manages to “produce” the following day per Andy’s model sounding (only have access to Euro out to 240 so can’t line up same valid date). In other words, maybe further upside based on Euro??

Stating the obvious that it’s all out in fantasyland, but would anybody rather NOT see hope in the models??

 

[Jason N]

hahah I am kind of in the same mode as James Caruso right now, to go, or to delay. I am on the 28th to 5 June line right now.. but I am possibly looking at a one week delay, but even doing that I still will run into the same problems as my current ones since there really is no trust in performance or stability in the models. The general CFS trend in the 500mb is that its cut off features and split flow and I still don't see much change in that. so, I stick with my original timing and hopefully get 2 days out of 9 to chase.. or wait, and possibly get 3 days out of 9. So now, I am considering what to do during down time. I mean if i'm GOING to be out there.. might as well make the most of it.

 

[Joey Prom]

I will be heading back home to MN on Friday, chase Upper Midwest Saturday and play the rest by ear. Still looking for people to go with, but I figure on my home turf I can make do solo.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Well, to no surprise, that setup in the sounding I posted for next week Friday has essentially disappeared from the two subsequent runs of the GFS. The good news is, there are several other potential severe events portrayed that week and into (and perhaps beyond, if the 18Z run is to be believed) the Memorial Day weekend.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Euro has a completely different look for that period now too...

But I’m not going to worry about it... I’m more concerned about what I might miss this Friday/Saturday, CO looks interesting both days and also SE WY on Saturday. Nothing incredible, but those regions have a way of pulling a rabbit out of a hat. I just hate to miss any chase days given how these past few years have gone... Us chase vacationers always have to miss stuff, and we learn to live with it, but when you miss stuff by just a lousy day or two, right after or right before a scheduled trip, it’s maddening,. I start going through all these mental gymnastics about trying to get out there early, but I think I’m just going to have to realize it’s too difficult and impractical, let Friday/Saturday go, and make peace with it.

Sucks to see that big, albeit closed, low lift out to the northeast rather than dig into the Plains. We e seen this movie before...

 

[Jeff House]

GFS and ECMWF 11-15 day have shown sharp differences for weeks now. I would not worry about details. Next week looks more progressive than this week. Whether its choppy GFS or southwest flow ECMWF, it's probably better than this week.

So James I would not change flights, unless it's free and work is not stressful. Otherwise just go with it. I really don't mind missing days in transit. Happens every time tbh. Leoti 2016 stands out, along with something in 2019. However there's no way of knowing if we'd have found it anyway.

Meanwhile I have a PDS family event (kid recital) Tuesday. These models that show action centered around Tuesday? Probably finally verify, lol!

 

[Jeff Duda]

I prefer to watch not only 5-7 day average forecast products on the TropicalTidbits website, but also Victor Gensini's supercell dynamical products.



While this looks a little better than it has been looking (not every single box is blue now), it certainly still suggests an overall below-climo pattern looks to hold through the medium range.

Recent GFS deterministic forecasts (and also the CFS) look pretty barf-o-riffic through the next 200 hours. Can't get a single jet stream with a progressive trough to even kiss the Plains.

The only two upsides I see to right now are
(1) Winter seems to finally be over - in that I don't see any more crashing cold fronts wiping out moisture down to the Gulf, so we can finally start looking at traditional dryline type setups
(2) The eastern fringes of the SW US drought (thanks, La Nina!) have received above normal precip over the past several weeks so soil moisture is improving, which should keep the high Plains from going bone dry the rest of the year.

Maybe by June we'll see some synoptic scale signal return??? (Ha...)

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Although I agree there isn't a strong synoptic-scale signal, if the ever-fluctuating GFS is consistent on one thing, it's that there should be localized chase opportunities somewhere in the central CONUS next week. How many, where and what their ceiling is TBD.