State of the Chase Season 2021

[Robert S. Thompson]

Mods, sorry if I am hijacking this thread, feel free to move.

Clearly, with warmer global temperatures, violent tornadoes are less frequent. See nearby graph.View attachment 21596

The increasing number in the South and Southeast are likely temporary and part of the somewhat cyclical pattern first documented by Ted Fujita. There Is Nothing New About the Hypothesis Tornado Alley Has Moved East



"Is climate change affecting chasing? Absolutely. Is it eliminating chasing? I don't know, and I'm far enough removed from my studies to call myself an expert anymore."

I disagree that we have evidence that S&V tornadoes are becoming less frequent. I'm not saying that you are wrong. I am saying that I don't feel the tornado data is trustworthy enough. Tornadoes prior to the Fujita scale (1970s) were "back rated" from news and other reports. Toss them out and the trendline flattens. I also heard that in the 1980s a high rating on a tornado required extra forms and a review from above, so raters leaned toward lower ratings. Finally, the EF scale raised the bar for high end tornadoes (e.g., El Reno was an EF3 because no damage indicators above EF3).

That said, the graph does show how quiet recent years have been!

On a slightly different note, I think Southeastern tornadoes were probably underreported from the 1950s-???, so "Tornado Alley" may not be shifting, but it may be that we are counting tornadoes more accurately. Tornado Alley should be retired anyway. It may or may not reflect where tornadoes are most common, and it certainly doesn't reflect where they are most deadly.

(I'll crawl back in my hole now and let this thread return to its usual angst of the State of the Season.)

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Yet another year of watching the days roll by as the "Severe Weather Climatology" maps on the SPC site turn a deep vermillion over the Plains and Midwest while literally nothing happens. Tells you all you need to know about the state of the "chase season," and as has been alluded to in recent posts, there are no strong signals in NWP of that changing in the foreseeable future.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Yet another year of watching the days roll by as the "Severe Weather Climatology" maps on the SPC site turn a deep vermillion over the Plains and Midwest while literally nothing happens

Awesome, going to add that to my “notable and quotable“ notebook, along with the lines from Brett Roberts and Brett Nickeson that I quoted above. Perfect expressions of the angst of this unfortunate avocation we have chosen, or that chose us...

 

[Kem Poyner]

I have decided I am not going to gamble to see if Late May or June things turn around. I am heading out from Phoenix Saturday to chase anything that happens the first half of next week. A bare bones LP supercell in the Texas panhandle would make me very happy.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I have decided I am not going to gamble to see if Late May or June things turn around. I am heading out from Phoenix Saturday to chase anything that happens the first half of next week. A bare bones LP supercell in the Texas panhandle would make me very happy.

I'm also heading out this weekend. I rely heavily on local NWS forecast discussions this time of year. More than one location is using the "T-word" for the extended. I've found over the years that local offices are much better at forecasting their own weather over other sources, including social media -- where the season has been declared DOA. This is especially true in E. NM, SE CO and the Texas Panhandle where jiggy storms appear out of thin air and drop tubes with 35kt. shear. I'm also not buying some of the extended 500mb forecasts. I'll worry about the cap and LCL's later. Good luck!

 

[Ethan Schisler]

We are heading out this weekend for much of next week (at least the first half anyway). I'm currently eyeing the SUN-WED time-frame for the best potential of severe especially over the TX Panhandle into Southern//Western Oklahoma. After mid-week though, things diverge and there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the pattern. At least most global models are showing *something* to chase for a few days, it certainly looked worse a few days ago. Originally we were planning a week+ (10 day) long trip, but we decided that it doesn't make sense to just drive around and spend money on motels with nothing going on for extended periods. If the pattern dies mid-week, probably will come back home, recharge, and look forward to the next uptick in activity .

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

Hey guys - long time lurker but first time poster.

My chase vacation is scheduled from May 22-29 out of OKC. And I’m liking what I’m seeing for that week. The GFS/CMC/Euro deterministic runs + ensembles are pretty consistent in above normal 500mb height anomalies east of the Mississippi River, at least for the first half of that time period. The uncertainty lies in how the western trough is oriented and how long it sticks around, but I’ll take my chances with a ridge in the east in late May anytime. There’s bound to be at least a couple really good chase days in there.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Today's SPC Day 4-8 outlook actually makes it sound like the upcoming period might not be entirely horrible. Of course, you have to adjust for Broyles (who never met a severe potential he didn't like), but an improvement over the abomination this May has been so far.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

It looks like we might get 60 dews north of I-70 next week for the first time this year. That's something, I guess.

 

[Warren Faidley]

There may also be some NW flow events (e.g. late season) that will have to be watched carefully. The big question is if the season will suddenly end after this run of events, as the NCEP Ensembles are trying to set up a summer pattern during the last week in May. I'm not buying it yet, but the rule in this drought climatology is to chase when you can.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

There may also be some NW flow events (e.g. late season) that will have to be watched carefully. The big question is if the season will suddenly end after this run of events, as the NCEP Ensembles are trying to set up a summer pattern during the last week in May. I'm not buying it yet, but the rule in this drought climatology is to chase when you can.

Does it really end if it never began?

 

[Paul Bird]

We are heading out this weekend for much of next week (at least the first half anyway). I'm currently eyeing the SUN-WED time-frame for the best potential of severe especially over the TX Panhandle into Southern//Western Oklahoma. After mid-week though, things diverge and there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the pattern. At least most global models are showing *something* to chase for a few days, it certainly looked worse a few days ago. Originally we were planning a week+ (10 day) long trip, but we decided that it doesn't make sense to just drive around and spend money on motels with nothing going on for extended periods. If the pattern dies mid-week, probably will come back home, recharge, and look forward to the next uptick in activity .

The 22nd onward is starting to look pretty interesting. Especially if the 0z Euro is to be believed. Best run we've had in awhile and a few other models are showing signs as well.

The gfs seems all over the place at the moment, but eastern ridging and western troughing are starting to appear favorable over the last 10 days of May.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Great news above about 5/22 forward. My trip is locked in for that timeframe so I have avoided looking too far ahead. Nothing I can do about it, no flexibility to go this week instead, so just have to deal with it for better or worse. If I could, I would probably go out weeks of 5/15 and 5/22, instead of 5/22 and 5/29. Only decision now is whether 5/22 looks good enough to justify missing my daughters’ dance recital, but I don’t need to make that call quite yet.

 

[Paul Bird]

Great news above about 5/22 forward. My trip is locked in for that timeframe so I have avoided looking too far ahead. Nothing I can do about it, no flexibility to go this week instead, so just have to deal with it for better or worse. If I could, I would probably go out weeks of 5/15 and 5/22, instead of 5/22 and 5/29. Only decision now is whether 5/22 looks good enough to justify missing my daughters’ dance recital, but I don’t need to make that call quite yet.

The 12z gfs is beginning to phase the cutoff and the trough is digging deeper it appears. Personally I feel potential has a higher ceiling for the latter time frame you mentioned. There will certainly be chase days next week, I would just rather roll the dice on a trough instead of cutoff chasing personally.

My dates are also locked, 20th to the 27th, so that may be wishful thinking on my part. Certainly liking these latest solutions better though.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I'm booked for 5/21 through 31, not all of that time can be spent on chasing (at least one family event on the 21st, also getting my second dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine on the 20th), but regardless of what happens, 10 consecutive days will be the longest vacation I've had since I started working full-time in August 2013.