State of the Chase Season 2021

[Jeff Duda]

Staff note
Several recent posts discussing the quality of the road network or chase terrain have been moved to an old thread that presented a very detailed and useful map of storm chasing terrain quality in the US. You can find that thread here: US Chase Map Project

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Based on the GFS/Euro for the next week or so, I'd say there will be several chances again in the Midwest to perhaps even the high plains for chaseable severe weather continuing the pattern of an active August 2021 season. Hard to say what days will do what or if anything at all will happen. This time of year the margin between a big time event and a rainy day with a training MCS is razor thin, so its nothing I'd take to my grave. Although I see signs toward the beginning of September that we will get behind a cold front into a cooler airmass. So probably going to take any chances I can get over the next 7-14 days for chasing.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Global models suggest a period of western troughing coming up that would be gorgeous in May...as it is might still see some "second season" severe weather events in the central CONUS as per the 4-8 although mode/potential chase quality TBD.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Next Tuesday based off the GFS/Euro would be bliss if we can get dry line storms to fire and sort out all the details. Of course that is a long ways out. But cool season outbreaks of recent years have seemed to reward quite well, although its been a minute since we had one in traditional "tornado alley" (KS/OK/TX/NE region). Would be ironic if one of the best setups of the year happened in mid October lol...

 

[Jason N]

Just wanted to toss out a quick message to the group wondering what people are seeing in the upcoming year signals for whether it looks more likely that La Nina will persist, or will it be a Hybrid year? I just took a look at the CPC guidance and have seen their estimates, but I know there are more things that some of you experts out there look at. Thanks!!

 

[adlyons]

Just wanted to toss out a quick message to the group wondering what people are seeing in the upcoming year signals for whether it looks more likely that La Nina will persist, or will it be a Hybrid year? I just took a look at the CPC guidance and have seen their estimates, but I know there are more things that some of you experts out there look at. Thanks!!

The current ENSO forecast is for a triple dip this winter with a decay through early spring to neutral or weak EL Nino. Probably still a little far out to be certain on the decay part but leaning neutral. Early decays usually arent good and neutral conditions are also a mixed bag.

 

[JamesCaruso]

MODS looks like posts 350 and 351 should be moved either to the State of the Chase Season 2022 thread, or to a new 2023 outlook thread

 

[adlyons]

MODS looks like posts 350 and 351 should be moved either to the State of the Chase Season 2022 thread, or to a new 2023 outlook thread

whoops sorry gang, didnt realize this was 2021