State of the Chase Season 2021

[Ethan Schisler]

Today is looking much like yesterday locally....poor. Morning round of "rain" has moved through which deposited no more than a trace (I'm at 0.00" for June). We didn't drop much below 80 last night and its very muggy, CAPE is high this morning already, but we have a very strong cap to work through. Need to clear these clouds out so we can get into the mid 90s later to approach convective temps. Even then I have my reserves on if storms form before dark and how severe they are. I think large hail and significant wind gusts are the biggest risks. By 02z when HRRR has cells firing, the amount of CIN that builds in is quite substantial (-150 to -200). Probably more of a lightning op than a real chase.

Fast forward to Sunday and there is a legit warm front setup in the Midwest. High instability coupled with pretty good low level shear along a warm front in Northern IL/Southern WI should yield another chase op. At least this type we have some synoptics to work with and decent mid level flow out of the SW. Its been 3 years since I have seen a tornado in June. Maybe it'll end on Sunday. June used to be my best month, now its July.

 

[Jason N]

so, when do we start talking about the MJO/NAO/PNO - LA Nina / El Nino potentials for next year?

 

[Jeff Duda]

so, when do we start talking about the MJO/NAO/PNO - LA Nina / El Nino potentials for next year?

Next year.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Well my post last Friday aged very poorly. We had a high end EF1 tornado touch down a couple miles from home base later that evening along with 80-100 mph RFD and then got over 4" of rain on top of that followed by another 1-2" a couple days later and then 2.15" this morning. So that 0.00" for June has quickly been erased and if the models are correct, we could be dealing with a double digit rainfall month (tis the season). Severe potential today appears to be tied to the boundary. I've elected not to chase today because of the likely HP storm mode in poor terrain (NW MO). I may meander down toward Bowling Green/Quincy later on if something looks interesting as things are starting to clear out. Otherwise, today and the next 2 days are going to be mesoscale forecasts for the local area. I do think one of the days (today, Friday, or Saturday) will have the potential to produce a good local severe op.

If I was actively chasing the Plains today, I'd probably target the boundary in Kansas near Marysville and hope you can keep something discrete. CAPE is high here along with high SRH along the boundary (if it lifts that far north) and some backing winds. Probably going to be a lot of quick backbuilding though tonight and flash flooding issues so tomorrow's chase will be even more difficult (and in a lot of the same area).

 

[Todd Lemery]

Well my post last Friday aged very poorly. We had a high end EF1 tornado touch down a couple miles from home base later that evening along with 80-100 mph RFD and then got over 4" of rain on top of that followed by another 1-2" a couple days later and then 2.15" this morning. So that 0.00" for June has quickly been erased and if the models are correct, we could be dealing with a double digit rainfall month (tis the season). Severe potential today appears to be tied to the boundary. I've elected not to chase today because of the likely HP storm mode in poor terrain (NW MO). I may meander down toward Bowling Green/Quincy later on if something looks interesting as things are starting to clear out. Otherwise, today and the next 2 days are going to be mesoscale forecasts for the local area. I do think one of the days (today, Friday, or Saturday) will have the potential to produce a good local severe op.

If I was actively chasing the Plains today, I'd probably target the boundary in Kansas near Marysville and hope you can keep something discrete. CAPE is high here along with high SRH along the boundary (if it lifts that far north) and some backing winds. Probably going to be a lot of quick backbuilding though tonight and flash flooding issues so tomorrow's chase will be even more difficult (and in a lot of the same area).

Funny. I’m sitting in Marysville right now waiting for initiation. Thought I’d catch up with the chatter….

 

[Jeff Duda]

Funny. I’m sitting in Marysville right now waiting for initiation. Thought I’d catch up with the chatter….

With 14 C h7 temps sitting overhead, you might be sitting there for a while. Good luck!

 

[Todd Lemery]

Actually it went pretty well. Shortly thereafter storms fired just SW of there. After rapid growth, It had a couple of funnels on the warned storm before turning into a big pile of snot. A little less HP would have been helpful, but no real complaints.
The next day or two have some potential and I expect the chaser traffic will be stepped up a bit as it rolls into the weekend

 

[Jason N]

Next year.

well you can't blame me for already wanting to know lol

 

[JamesCaruso]

Nothing good can come of it. Even IF there were any value in trying to forecast that far ahead, you’re going to either see something favorable, get hyped up, and risk disappointment, OR torture yourself with perceived signs of unfavorability. It’s just not worth it, all downside and no upside.

 

[Jeff Duda]

With 14 C h7 temps sitting overhead, you might be sitting there for a while. Good luck!

This post aged well, haha.

@Jason N...I agree that there is no harm in wanting to know. However, the science has not advanced to the point of being able to predict those S2S (seasonal-to-subseasonal) signals with this kind of lead time and still contain reliability. Some of the features you named only evolve on the sub-seasonal scale, and so are not even in the range of useful predictability at this point.

About the only signal you might be able to start looking at is ENSO. Both CPC and IRI provide forecast plumes, but accuracy at this range is probably pretty close to climo, so it won't help much.

IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July 2024 Quick Look

iri.columbia.edu

Climate Prediction Center - Monthly Verifications

This page displays the most recent verification of the Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Forecasts

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

 

[Jason N]

You guys keep it real, I appreciate that!. I will say and I think my message was taken a bit on the serious side, It was meant more for grins and a chuckle since this season was certainly below average. Jeff D. Thank you for the IRI link!, I am not familiar with that one. , sorry my humor didn't come across in my previous post. I should have added a laughing face or something, so that is on me.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

The next 5-10 days here look pretty much about the same every day. Chance of showers/thunderstorms, warm and humid, repeat. The ECMWF has a strong upper level low over the Great Lakes around the 4th of July this year (blocking pattern again) with highs in the 60s and low 70s. So any swimming or recreational activities of such will be put on the back burning (fun).

Could be worse I suppose, could be a 2009 4th of July where its 55 and raining all day and I have to watch the fireworks in my coat and hat with a stiff N wind...

Time to look forward to hurricane season and fall setups I guess. I think anything outside of local setups and mesoscale setups is gonna be all we get over the summer unless something anomalous occurs. I have a trip planned out west in late July for about a week to go camping (SD/WY/MT). So maybe I'll catch something then, who knows.

 

[Bobby Little]

Looking forward to a late chase today around my neighborhood of South and Central Michigan today. We have had soooo much rain in the last 2 days..non-stop that at times yesterday you might want to just kill yourself (joking). Sooo...Good break today to chase. Charts are a mess with decent dews.
Having chased and missed the brief Blissfield tornado on Fathers Night as it got too dark.. and i called off. Looking for earlier chances today into the eve. Fingers X.

 

[twarner]

My recollection with the chicklet plot was its value was to highlight 7-10 day out a possible severe weather event for late fall/winter/early spring, then in the summer it would always be "hot" so it didn't really offer much value.

This year has been totally different, and now look at the latest. Everything has gone dead.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Starting with the Iowa outbreak on 7/14, activity in the upper Midwest has picked up rather nicely. This also includes our midnight surprise here in southern Wisconsin on 7/28 and another overachiever this afternoon/evening. However I consider this "proper" summer weather for this area so it doesn't really make up for the lackluster May/June. The problem with these summer events is that they are too spur of the moment/mesoscale-driven to really plan for and get pumped for the chase.