State of the Chase Season: 2015 Edition

[Sean Ramsey]

It's been a super busy spring for me so far with five tornadoes and lots of slow HP's, and the little break is nice to get caught up on some stuff around the house and get in a little family time. Its looking more likely it will pick up again next week, so resting up for now.

 

[James Gustina]

Just took another peek at the 12Z GFS. Of course the Panhandle day next week looks like it could land on the day I have an exam until 6 PM.

 

[Stephen J]

I have honestly been looking at the last runs of the GFS and also the CFSv2 for entertainment, and I have seen is a lot of disappointment for the next 7-10 days if the models verify. I mean, I know things can change, but they do not yield a lot of hope for the next couple of weeks for anything significant. Split flow, and weak 500mb.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

I have honestly been looking at the last runs of the GFS and also the CFSv2 for entertainment, and I have seen is a lot of disappointment for the next 7-10 days if the models verify. I mean, I know things can change, but they do not yield a lot of hope for the next couple of weeks for anything significant. Split flow, and weak 500mb.

ECMWF is even worse. Really lame flow at h5 compared to GFS next week. And not anything better through 10 days. That could change or things could pick up after that. But I'm still holding out for the monster CAPEs of late May/June.

Congrats to those of you who've bagged some good storms already. Maybe that will make the waiting easier!

 

[Jeff Duda]

It looks like there's a good chance things will heat up again beginning early next week. Decent moisture looks to work its way back onshore and north of the Red River probably late Sunday or Monday. The medium range models are all pointing at a low-amplitude trough from the sub-tropical jet working its way across the southwest US early to midweek next week. Although the mid level flow doesn't exactly look spectacular, it is still past 100 hours, so details can change. Also, you don't always need a big trough with 50+ kts at 500 mb to get a decent severe weather event. After that, with a decrease in predictability in mind, it looks like the polar jet will become more active with disturbances crossing the northern US.

While the next 7-14 days don't exactly look great, having an active sub-tropical jet and a long period of moisture return can't be a bad thing. I'm not saying there's a sleeper outbreak waiting to surprise us, but as long as you have storms, there's always a chance. Hell, just looking at the accumulated precip from the GFS and FIM next week makes me smile. If nothing else, the drought situation looks to continue to improve across the hardest hit areas of W OK and TX PH/NW TX.

 

[James Wilson]

I have driven only 1426 miles so far with four confirmed tornadoes, a possible tornado, tennis ball hail, a gustnado or two and a few funnels. It has been a good year so far and hoping it keeps going to match or beat my 2013.

 

[James Gustina]

Next Wednesday definitely has piqued my interest. Much better moisture return than when the trough hits E NM the day before and a very strong LLJ well before 00Z.

 

[chrisbray]

Starting to get hopeful about the possibility of some action on may 9/10.

 

[chrisbray]

Forgot to add, #hypetrain

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I don't see anything particularly "hypeable" about it at this point. The GFS has been consistently depicting the stronger flow aloft lagging the warm sector. Still nice to have something to watch, at least.

 

[chrisbray]

I am starting to get a good feeling about Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Looks like we will have something to play with.

 

[V. Gensini]

http://weather.cod.edu/~vgensini/ertaf/

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Everyone get a quick nap and some R&R? Cause it looks like a solid FULL week of tornado chances. Couple days look very classic to the southern Plains. Good luck to everyone heading out this week!

 

[Michael Gavan]

A lot to love in this upcoming forecast and timing just could not be more great for me. Many chances for slower moving photogenic and discrete storms. I have to miss out on Thursday but I'll be out in the caprock with the rest of you all probably having a picnic Friday lol. I'm willing to bet things stay active all the way though to Monday as GFS slows things down a tad. Lots of new gear to play this time too.


CHOO CHOO.

 

[Jeff House]

In addition to the opportunities this week, all 3 ensemble products show a new West trough developing around May 15 give or take a day. Canadian has the best pattern for chasing; Euro is somewhat onboard; and, GFS has a weaker but similar signal. Trough is shown gradually pushing through the Rockies and ejecting short waves into the Plains. Pattern seems reasonable since it is similar to this week and past events this season. State of the Season is good.