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State of the Chase Season: 2015 Edition

Yeah, too bad this next system in Tx Sunday/Monday is really going to wipe the moisture off the face of the CONUS for the following week. Axing may 2/3 from my chase weekends, which leaves just may 30/31 and june 7/8 for me. Don't know if I can wait that long!!
 
I'm definitely ok with a little downtime so I can focus on studying this week/exams next week. I also need a bit of a break. I'm closing on 2000 miles with barely anything to show for it right now which is pretty disconcerting.
 
As far as a nice break it looks like we will get a decent respite. After the mini break it looks like the next play is around the 5th or 6th, followed by another low the 8th or 9th.
Im going to stay away from the first wave, let the moisture return, and then maybe get back out there for the second shot of energy.

I cant say Im all that happy about the increasing crowds, and like others have mentioned, the night chasing seems like it has stepped up to a new level.
Maybe its just me but I dread to see what its going to be like chasing in 2020. I guess the worst case scenario is a few more deaths, a lot more media attention, and then some possible restrictions in some areas to chasing?

The restrictions seem hard to imagine, but I hope they never happen.
 
Chasing along the east coast from pa south to n.c. hasn't been as productive as last season when two systems crashed into the east coast after being prolific tornado producers to the west. I did get a minor hailstorm in ny with interesting clouds, a good distant wallclound in pa withsome nice roll and shelf clouds and video of a rotating thunderstorm in pa on 20th. It didn't look as impressive as some of the storms to the west later on in the day but showed some real potential. I was thinking about chasing Ohio and had the possibility of getting 3 rounds of severe, a minor tornado and long lived supercell.
 
So far been a pretty dismal year for myself. Driven about 2300 miles in April (granted only 3 days) and witnessed one HP storm with nothing of tornadic nature. Hoping that May/June can turn things around for me this year. The year is still quite young after all...
 
I finally was able to get out for the first time this year. 650 miles and a botched target city resulted in me missing a tornado. But I had a lot of fun and it was rejuvenating to get out, so I can't complain.
 
Me arranging a chase from the UK at the last minute based on the extended GFS is as always fraught with uncertainties. Though so far the models have played out pretty well with longer term predictions. If this is to continue then there are some signs of good moisture return from around 6th May onwards. Though note the weaker flow aloft till 13th May! Reduced, deep layer shear doesn't always mean that storm days won't be available, it just suggests that any moderate to high risk outlooks might be less likely. After 15 years of chasing I already have a great library of footage and photo's but now prefer to chase within a higher risk environment wherever possible. The GFS currently extends out to 15th May and at the moment I do not see a sustained stronger pattern. If we look at the northern hemisphere extended jet stream predictions we can maybe see a stronger flow moving eastward from out to the west by 18th May though that far out might be taken with a pinch of salt!.......All in all I do wonder whether to consider chasing the High Plains in June for a change!

Time will tell!
 
The best part for me is that my last exam is on May 7th. I'm looking forward to some more low end days that won't act as a big draw for people to come west. With any luck, the Panhandle will light up so I can finally get back out to my favorite part of chase country and enjoy a few days of low traffic.
 
It's been a super busy spring for me so far with five tornadoes and lots of slow HP's, and the little break is nice to get caught up on some stuff around the house and get in a little family time. Its looking more likely it will pick up again next week, so resting up for now.
 
I have honestly been looking at the last runs of the GFS and also the CFSv2 for entertainment, and I have seen is a lot of disappointment for the next 7-10 days if the models verify. I mean, I know things can change, but they do not yield a lot of hope for the next couple of weeks for anything significant. Split flow, and weak 500mb.
 
Stephen J said:
I have honestly been looking at the last runs of the GFS and also the CFSv2 for entertainment, and I have seen is a lot of disappointment for the next 7-10 days if the models verify. I mean, I know things can change, but they do not yield a lot of hope for the next couple of weeks for anything significant. Split flow, and weak 500mb.
Click to expand...

ECMWF is even worse. Really lame flow at h5 compared to GFS next week. And not anything better through 10 days. That could change or things could pick up after that. But I'm still holding out for the monster CAPEs of late May/June.

Congrats to those of you who've bagged some good storms already. Maybe that will make the waiting easier!
 
It looks like there's a good chance things will heat up again beginning early next week. Decent moisture looks to work its way back onshore and north of the Red River probably late Sunday or Monday. The medium range models are all pointing at a low-amplitude trough from the sub-tropical jet working its way across the southwest US early to midweek next week. Although the mid level flow doesn't exactly look spectacular, it is still past 100 hours, so details can change. Also, you don't always need a big trough with 50+ kts at 500 mb to get a decent severe weather event. After that, with a decrease in predictability in mind, it looks like the polar jet will become more active with disturbances crossing the northern US.

While the next 7-14 days don't exactly look great, having an active sub-tropical jet and a long period of moisture return can't be a bad thing. I'm not saying there's a sleeper outbreak waiting to surprise us, but as long as you have storms, there's always a chance. Hell, just looking at the accumulated precip from the GFS and FIM next week makes me smile. If nothing else, the drought situation looks to continue to improve across the hardest hit areas of W OK and TX PH/NW TX.
 
I have driven only 1426 miles so far with four confirmed tornadoes, a possible tornado, tennis ball hail, a gustnado or two and a few funnels. It has been a good year so far and hoping it keeps going to match or beat my 2013.
 
Next Wednesday definitely has piqued my interest. Much better moisture return than when the trough hits E NM the day before and a very strong LLJ well before 00Z.
 
I don't see anything particularly "hypeable" about it at this point. The GFS has been consistently depicting the stronger flow aloft lagging the warm sector. Still nice to have something to watch, at least.
 
I am starting to get a good feeling about Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Looks like we will have something to play with.
gfsUS_500_spd_147.gif
 
Everyone get a quick nap and some R&R? Cause it looks like a solid FULL week of tornado chances. Couple days look very classic to the southern Plains. Good luck to everyone heading out this week!
 
A lot to love in this upcoming forecast and timing just could not be more great for me. Many chances for slower moving photogenic and discrete storms. I have to miss out on Thursday but I'll be out in the caprock with the rest of you all probably having a picnic Friday lol. I'm willing to bet things stay active all the way though to Monday as GFS slows things down a tad. Lots of new gear to play this time too.


CHOO CHOO.
 
In addition to the opportunities this week, all 3 ensemble products show a new West trough developing around May 15 give or take a day. Canadian has the best pattern for chasing; Euro is somewhat onboard; and, GFS has a weaker but similar signal. Trough is shown gradually pushing through the Rockies and ejecting short waves into the Plains. Pattern seems reasonable since it is similar to this week and past events this season. State of the Season is good.
 
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