State of the Chase Season: 2015 Edition

[chrisbray]

I'm really hoping the CFS/GFS trend of some kind of trough/system on may1/2/3. That's one of very few weekends I have for a multi day chase adventure where I can finally get my butt on the plains and experience the real systems out there!

 

[Andy Wade]

Friday has a high ceiling (and a low floor, like any four-day forecast in an active pattern). If we were inside a couple of days and I saw the 00z ECMWF, I would be concerned: jet streak nosing into the Plains, compact but potent negatively tilted shortwave, dryline just west of central Oklahoma. SPC beat me to the punch on cautiously leaning toward the Euro. With regard to the upper pattern, a choice between the GFS and a slightly slower solution from another major model is hardly even a choice. With regard to other influences on low-level moisture, we're doing better on rainfall and ET, and dryline position has been farther west than advertised a few times this season.

 

[KendraReed]

I have my coffee ready to administer via IV starting Wednesday...Bring it.

 

[Jeff Duda]

As if the big Friday bust isn't depressing enough, the GFS, FIM, ECMWF, and CFS are all hinting that we may experience a somewhat extended period of downtime starting this weekend. It looks to me like things aren't going to line up properly with the Sunday trough. After that, there are some hints at a west coast trough, but most models predict it will cut off and fill in before reaching the plains. After that, we may have to get into the second full week of May before things pick up again. Hopefully some things change and fill in that gap, but it doesn't look great right now.

 

[John Hollingshead]

For me, 2004 was quiet until May 12. After that it was Katy bar the door. 19 tornadoes over 4 chases in the next 31 days., 3 chases in Barber, Harper & Sumner Counties and then the one chase in southeastern Nebraska. It would've been nice to chase today since I was off work by 9 am. but at this point I'll be happy that some of the good chase country is getting some much needed drought relief.


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[chrisbray]

Yeah, too bad this next system in Tx Sunday/Monday is really going to wipe the moisture off the face of the CONUS for the following week. Axing may 2/3 from my chase weekends, which leaves just may 30/31 and june 7/8 for me. Don't know if I can wait that long!!

 

[James Gustina]

I'm definitely ok with a little downtime so I can focus on studying this week/exams next week. I also need a bit of a break. I'm closing on 2000 miles with barely anything to show for it right now which is pretty disconcerting.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I've done 5,000 miles since April 1. 7 tornadoes (preliminary), and several amazing structure days. 2015 has already slid into my 3rd best season behind 2010 and 2012. I'm pumped for what May and June will bring!

 

[Michael Snyder]

As far as a nice break it looks like we will get a decent respite. After the mini break it looks like the next play is around the 5th or 6th, followed by another low the 8th or 9th.
Im going to stay away from the first wave, let the moisture return, and then maybe get back out there for the second shot of energy.

I cant say Im all that happy about the increasing crowds, and like others have mentioned, the night chasing seems like it has stepped up to a new level.
Maybe its just me but I dread to see what its going to be like chasing in 2020. I guess the worst case scenario is a few more deaths, a lot more media attention, and then some possible restrictions in some areas to chasing?

The restrictions seem hard to imagine, but I hope they never happen.

 

[kevin-palmer]

It's been a good year so far for Texas. 50 tornadoes according to this page: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2015_annual_summary.html

I'm waiting for severe weather to return to Illinois, maybe next week. Besides the tornado outbreak on 4/9, there hasn't been much up here yet.

 

[calvinkaskey]

Chasing along the east coast from pa south to n.c. hasn't been as productive as last season when two systems crashed into the east coast after being prolific tornado producers to the west. I did get a minor hailstorm in ny with interesting clouds, a good distant wallclound in pa withsome nice roll and shelf clouds and video of a rotating thunderstorm in pa on 20th. It didn't look as impressive as some of the storms to the west later on in the day but showed some real potential. I was thinking about chasing Ohio and had the possibility of getting 3 rounds of severe, a minor tornado and long lived supercell.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

So far been a pretty dismal year for myself. Driven about 2300 miles in April (granted only 3 days) and witnessed one HP storm with nothing of tornadic nature. Hoping that May/June can turn things around for me this year. The year is still quite young after all...

 

[Drew Terril]

I finally was able to get out for the first time this year. 650 miles and a botched target city resulted in me missing a tornado. But I had a lot of fun and it was rejuvenating to get out, so I can't complain.

 

[Tony Gilbert]

Me arranging a chase from the UK at the last minute based on the extended GFS is as always fraught with uncertainties. Though so far the models have played out pretty well with longer term predictions. If this is to continue then there are some signs of good moisture return from around 6th May onwards. Though note the weaker flow aloft till 13th May! Reduced, deep layer shear doesn't always mean that storm days won't be available, it just suggests that any moderate to high risk outlooks might be less likely. After 15 years of chasing I already have a great library of footage and photo's but now prefer to chase within a higher risk environment wherever possible. The GFS currently extends out to 15th May and at the moment I do not see a sustained stronger pattern. If we look at the northern hemisphere extended jet stream predictions we can maybe see a stronger flow moving eastward from out to the west by 18th May though that far out might be taken with a pinch of salt!.......All in all I do wonder whether to consider chasing the High Plains in June for a change!

Time will tell!

 

[James Gustina]

The best part for me is that my last exam is on May 7th. I'm looking forward to some more low end days that won't act as a big draw for people to come west. With any luck, the Panhandle will light up so I can finally get back out to my favorite part of chase country and enjoy a few days of low traffic.