State of the Chase Season: 2015 Edition

[James Gustina]

The southern High Plains look like they're going to have one hell of a run should the upcoming pattern verify. This week already has been great. I can't remember the last time we had near an entire week of solid chase days this far west.

 

[chrisbray]

I feel justified in using the #hypetrain now! Choochooooooo

 

[Brett Roberts]

The southern High Plains look like they're going to have one hell of a run should the upcoming pattern verify. This week already has been great. I can't remember the last time we had near an entire week of solid chase days this far west.

If this week comes close to fulfilling its potential, relatively new chasers will finally see why some of us have been griping about the lack of action W of I-35 for the last few years (at least in TX/OK, and largely KS too). I'm very impressed with this run between today and Saturday, and see realistic potential for quality tornadoes each day in an area that's been starved of them since 2010. It's doubtful that all four days will be spectacular, but even 2/4 would go a long way in boosting this season's resume, especially being that it's only the beginning of May. With the highly anomalous 30-day rainfall over most of the SGP, evapotranspiration should tip each day's setup a little more toward the favorable side of the scale, so this looks like nearly a best-case scenario to me. This might be the closest thing to the legendary "7 Days of May" (14-20 May 1977) chasers have seen in quite a few years, especially since we're already off to a head start with photogenic tornadoes both of the past two days.

 

[Jeff Duda]

If this week comes close to fulfilling its potential, relatively new chasers will finally see why some of us have been griping about the lack of action W of I-35 for the last few years (at least in TX/OK, and largely KS too). I'm very impressed with this run between today and Saturday, and see realistic potential for quality tornadoes each day in an area that's been starved of them since 2010. It's doubtful that all four days will be spectacular....

Sad how big that "IF" was...I guess at least the drought across much of OK and TX has been effectively wiped out.

I'm burnt out after 3 chases the last four days. After I watch today's outbreak from my chair, the last thing I'll want to think about for awhile is more chasing. However, the 00Z GFS from last night said we are in store for an active mid-late May, as it brings in at least three major troughs across the Plains, starting with the first one next weekend. While it's 150 hours out, I'm inclined to believe there will at least be a trough across the Plains then based on the synoptic time scale of about one week. The ones after that, yeah, fantasy land at this point (although the GEFS has a signal and shows a mean 500 mb trough sitting around 120 W over the extended medium range).

The 00Z EMCWF ensemble is very much aligned with this scenario, as is the 00Z FIM. In fact, it's a little scary just how much the 00Z FIM and 00Z GFS agree on the 500 mb height pattern at hour 324.

 

[JF Massicotte]

To be honest, my chasecations are booked May18th-May26th, and I don't recall being so much excited looking at long range models. Most of them seem to agree on a large scale pattern that would be conductive to a very active week.

The GFS actually falls in what would be right to call weather porn.

I'd be happy if half of the potential setups depicted by GFS verified.

 

[Todd Lemery]

The GFS hit on this past week back when it was in the long range forecast. Hopefully there's an encore for you!

 

[Paul Knightley]

The pattern does look fairly active - let's hope we don't get any major FROPA into the GoM though. The hints of a slightly more northern storm track would be good if they panned out, such that a stouter (but not too stout!) EML can overspread the Plains and prevent such widespread storm development as we've seen. Interestingly the long range output from earlier this year has been pointing to a wet May in the Plains (see one of my much earlier posts, probably in an earlier thread).

 

[JamesCaruso]

My trip is set in stone for May 17-31 (with the first and last days being travel days, not chase days). If this were any other year I would try to fly out on Thursday night to take advantage of the advertised Day 4 and 5 risk areas, but I have to attend a Saturday wedding and can't fly out until Sunday But I am cautiously optimistic about the remaining opportunities during my time out there, and resolve to make the best of it and enjoy myself no matter what. Of course, I say that every year, yet sometimes the disappointment and frustration are impossible to ignore after a year of anticipation... But a chase vacation really is a uniquely special adventure and is a very small window of opportunity in which every moment is to be savored...

 

[James Gustina]

Doesn't look like you'll be missing anything major this weekend anyhow. Friday looks kind of iffy given the meh 0-1 km and the next day will have to contend with both lack of any appreciable capping and the previous day's storms going right over the same area.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Well, looking beyond this weekend's system and the "will it or won't it?(pan out with quality chaseable storms)," the GFS started teasing another trough and associated surface system crossing the Plains in the 23rd-24th timeframe almost as soon as it came into range. It lost it for a couple runs in favor of an ugly eastern trough that almost looked like a return to February, then got it back on today's 12Z run.

 

[JF Massicotte]

Well, looking beyond this weekend's system and the "will it or won't it?(pan out with quality chaseable storms)," the GFS started teasing another trough and associated surface system crossing the Plains in the 23rd-24th timeframe almost as soon as it came into range. It lost it for a couple runs in favor of an ugly eastern trough that almost looked like a return to February, then got it back on today's 12Z run.

Both CMC and Euro seem to agree with GFS with this trough with biggest difference being that they both seem more agressive with a neg tilt over the High Plains region. Should the GFS fall in line with this we could get a good shot at supercells West of I-35.

For those, like me, that will be on chasecations during the week, we might get some marginally-good chase days, with Thuesday having the best chances.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Both CMC and Euro seem to agree with GFS with this trough with biggest difference being that they both seem more agressive with a neg tilt over the High Plains region. Should the GFS fall in line with this we could get a good shot at supercells West of I-35.

For those, like me, that will be on chasecations during the week, we might get some marginally-good chase days, with Thuesday having the best chances.

I start my two week chasecation on Mon 5/18, so I certainly do hope there are some chase days (even if marginal) during the early/mid part of the week; it is depressing to already have to look ahead to the end of the first week, when the trip is already half over!! Sad how quickly the window of opportunity closes... But I am going to stay upbeat, live in the moment and hope for the best.

JF, your mention of "Thuesday" is a perfect blend of Tuesday and Thursday, change just one letter and it could be either day! I assume you are referring to Tuesday. I did not look at models past then but Tuesday looks like it should be a chase day and I did see that SPC Day 4-8 has Potential Too Low for Wednesday and Thursday. SPC does, however, talk about things becoming more active late week, as Andy's post predicts. They have Predictability Too Low for Friday and Saturday, 5/22-5/23. I like that better than Potential Too Low so I will hope things get active a day earlier than Andy's post suggests!



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[chrisbray]

Is it me or are things starting to look down for both this coming weekend and beyond?

 

[Robert Forry]

Is it me or are things starting to look down for both this coming weekend and beyond?

I was thinking the same. This weekend looks marginal at best, and the week after..sheesh...not liking that I waited to take my Chasecation beginning the 29th - but heck, things can turn around in just a few days, so I guess I'll stay tuned.

 

[ChristianT]

Is it me or are things starting to look down for both this coming weekend and beyond?

Yeah I feel the same way as you. I am not the best at forecasting but at least on the GFS, it shows a weak trough coming in from the west and weakening as it comes into the southern plains. At best right now, I suspect there will be slight risks mainly from West Texas into the Panhandle and maybe west Oklahoma. GFS yesterday showed a really nice low trying to develop along the Red River and move northeast from there around the 120 hour I believe yesterday but today it has lost that.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Troughs - some vigorous negative-tilt - have been coming each weekend like clockwork. That should be great for chasing, except that early crapvection has been our CAPE killer. In late May/early June, even weak shortwaves with healthy instability could make big storms. But this year's anemic EML has given us a rainy pattern for weeks now. I hope we can break the cycle and get the CAPE back up to a more normal 3000-4000 level. Then with even a few ripples in the SW flow we would be back in business. That's how it looks to me anyway.

 

[chrisbray]

RIP 2015?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

GFS has been teasing some northern Plains/upper Midwest possibilities in the first week of June. Decent instability, the 500 MB winds vary from run to run, from totally anemic to 40-50kt SW/W/NW flow over the warm sector. That would suit me just fine since I'm on vacation that week.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Hopefully we don't have to write off the upcoming week just yet, as it is the second and last week of my two week chase vacation. For those of us that don't live out here, it is very painful to leave unfulfilled and have to wait a whole year for the next opportunity. If you live out here, at least you have some hope for another whole month at least... Anyway, with a generally southwest (though weak) flow pattern and plenty of moisture in the southern Plains much of this upcoming week, I am hoping we can squeeze out at least a couple of mesoscale events.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Looks like our ol evil nemesis makes his way in next week. Yep, looks like Death Ridge is showing up on the GFS. Big 500 mb high sitting in central TX. Although, if it stays that far south, the central/northern Plains may still squeeze some tornadoes out. We see this a lot in June/July with westerly flow on the northern periphery of the high, producing some very photogenic tornadoes. Regardless, I'm not totally sold on the last week of May and June shutting down yet. Some subtle impulses do show up as well. With the moisture staying put, this makes several days looking good. Don't think we'll see very many large synoptic systems rolling in though. What worries me is what @Jeff Duda talked about on my podcast, which is all this rain. Sure, its very beneficial, but it's not helping with the EML issue. And weak EML with any sort of forcing on the dryline could mean even more rain. It will be interesting to see how the season plays out between now and let's say the end of June.

 

[Robert Forry]

Well, I gambled a bit by waiting until the first few weeks of June to chase (new product launches at work, family commitments, vehicle issues), but that's cool. I have no issue chasing the northern Plaines and southern Canada if needed. Four weeks of vacation coming next year, so I'm not really feeling too bad about missing some events out there this spring. Plus, who knows. We could be in store for another Fall like 2013..

 

[Marc R. O'Leary]

While the rain in Colorado is extremely beneficial for drought and agriculture, I hate it because all my dirt roads are mud bogs and thus can't get to any of my favorite photography spots.

On the bright side, had a quick lunchtime chase today and witnessed a very nice wall cloud just a few miles from home.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

This is the first time I’ve delayed my chase vacation until June. Mid-to-long-range GFS continues to confound me run after run. I don’t mind chasing all the way up to Canada, but I’m not sure even that is going to do the trick. There’s too much n00b in this brain of mine to have a feel for whether this will be overcome in a more isolated fashion. I’m starting to troll through SPC storm reports from Junes-gone-by to see what analogies might serve up.

 

[James Gustina]

Looking like the shift to the central and northern High Plains is coming in right on schedule. After tomorrow it looks pretty dead for the end of May but some NW flow opportunities in the TX/OK PH up through SE Colorado look like a distinct possibility along with the next impulse coming out of the central Rockies around midweek next week. Might be time to start packing it in across the southern Plains, especially with the source region for the EML down here repeatedly getting rained on.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Yeah I let myself get a little too concerned yesterday morning. More recent runs of GFS and ECMWF are suggesting less miserable H5 flow and more useful impulses next week. The upper level jet is still looking like it might be somewhat allergic to the central plains, so it has me wondering if HP will still reign supreme.