State of the Chase Season: 2015 Edition

[Adam Lucio]

My spidey senses tell me we could see a big early fall event this year. Something like a 9-22-06 or 10-18-07. The juice seems to be consistently in place, and with the ongoing El Nino the jet seems more energized than normal. Sooner or later climatology is going to begin to take over and the cold air will make a push southward, which should only further strengthen the jet and help generate some strong cyclones. Hell, we just saw an anomalously deep cyclone produce a potential 3 hour long tornado in Canada 2 weeks ago.

So yea, totally won't be surprised to see a higher end event in the early fall. Interesting to see how things unfold as we slowly begin the transition between seasons and the jet comes back south.

 

[Jonathan Beeson]

My spidey senses tell me we could see a big early fall event this year. Something like a 9-22-06 or 10-18-07. The juice seems to be consistently in place, and with the ongoing El Nino the jet seems more energized than normal. Sooner or later climatology is going to begin to take over and the cold air will make a push southward, which should only further strengthen the jet and help generate some strong cyclones. Hell, we just saw an anomalously deep cyclone produce a potential 3 hour long tornado in Canada 2 weeks ago.

So yea, totally won't be surprised to see a higher end event in the early fall. Interesting to see how things unfold as we slowly begin the transition between seasons and the jet comes back south.

While not exactly "prime" chasing territory, don't sleep on Dixie Alley later in the fall and early winter as well. If the STJ can tap into the Gulf of Mexico sometime in November and pull that moisture into the Dixie states, there could be a chance at maybe a decent event or two down here as well.

 

[calvinkaskey]

Some of the hail to wind damage ratios in the eastern united states are very poor. Only 26 reports of large hail in New York, 36 in Pennsylvania, only 44 in Ohio, 39 in Wisconsin, and 18 in Michigan. States in the east that I am pretty sure are below average for number of tornadoes at this time of the year are N.C. with only 9, N.Y. with only 3, Mi 6, MD 2, OH 5, WI 16, VA 5, S.C. 7, W.V 2, N.J. 0, IN 15, KY 15, GA 14, FL 11, AL 22, AR 15, MS 21, LA 17

 

[Todd Lemery]

Wow. It seems like suddenly, chase season is dead. With fall conditions the last few days, it seems like the Northwoods are pretty much toast for the year. I'm still hoping for a couple of days this fall to head to the southern plains for one last gasp. I can't in recent memory recall a season up North where the isolated supercells were so hard to come by. The morning leftover crapvection we had this year also seemed to kill every good setup. The farmers have to be pleased with how the summer turned out though. I'm not giving up though, it only takes one good system!

 

[James Gustina]

It's still relatively early thankfully. Ridge doesn't look like it'll be breaking down anytime soon so god knows when we'll start even seeing digging troughs on the Plains again.