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Future of the season - 2013 edition
- Thread starter Dan Robinson
- Start date
Marcus Diaz
EF5
Well that storm south of Portales, NM has grown into a nice supercell. That's Caprock magic right there. Just need a touch of CAPE and some shear, coupled with a little moisture and some deviant motion, and you have a supercell.
Stan Rose
EF5
the 12z GFS looks ugly. Really really ugly. On the bright side, there should be plenty of cold fronts so maybe ill chase high elevation snowstorms...
Paul Knightley
EF5
The trend appears to be a somewhat less blocky pattern heading into the second half of May - we'll see!
Jeremy Perez
Supporter
In the many-universes theory of the GFS...more than a few possible Earths have chase opportunities coming up in the central plains in the mid to long range. I’m about ready to pull the trigger on vacation time and drive out from Arizona next Thursday. There could be 3 or 4 chaseable days within that following week. The possible flow at mid and upper levels is spotty and marginal where it overlaps moisture, instability and boundaries. Upslope flow may help tip the balance on a day or two. I’ve got to have a chance with at least 3 days in the span of a week to pull the trigger on the drive, and this might just about do it.
Then again, last night’s 00Z ECMWF just dropped a 360hr teaser that might require postponing for another week if that trends at all.
Then again, last night’s 00Z ECMWF just dropped a 360hr teaser that might require postponing for another week if that trends at all.
Tony Gilbert
EF1
Whilst, subject to change the extended GFS continues to suggest a split upper flow pattern for the next couple of weeks. Now, whilst a split flow is not a blocked outlook it will often nevertheless create some restrictions regarding northward moisture advection and the orientation of storm steering winds. In short a northeasterly steering wind is often less likely to maintain a good surface inflow before the updraft is undercut (as many of you will already know) . Unless the split flow diminishes then a long awaited southward digging trough cannot occur!
For most of us the overall consensus will be that the models will change or at best the chase conditions will be automatically deferred into June. Well I hope that is the case for those that have the flexibility. Certainly some good scope for periodical local storm chasing over the next few weeks would seem likely but maybe nothing outstanding! But then time will tell!
PS. The extortionate increase in international air fares over last couple of years makes our chase period pretty much fixed with no extension
For most of us the overall consensus will be that the models will change or at best the chase conditions will be automatically deferred into June. Well I hope that is the case for those that have the flexibility. Certainly some good scope for periodical local storm chasing over the next few weeks would seem likely but maybe nothing outstanding! But then time will tell!
PS. The extortionate increase in international air fares over last couple of years makes our chase period pretty much fixed with no extension
Bob Hartig
EF5
My overall impression of the GFS 500mb map these days is that it has been thrashing about like a loose firehose. I had written off my traditional target date of May 22; then last night, lo and behold, the GFS was smiling on it; now today the 22nd sucks again. This is the quintessence of the foibles of long-range models. What I'm able to deduce from this split-flow regime, though, is that any strong mid-level winds are associated with northwest flow, and when a trough does dig in, it either has meager southwesterly winds and/or fails to overlap moisture and instability, or else it turns into an annoying cutoff low. All that to say, there just are no obvious, big-chase-day scenarios in the picture. That's not to say there won't be opportunities for those who have the proximity and/or the time and bucks to go after subtler layouts; it's just harder, from a long-distance standpoint, to justify driving 1,000 miles to tornado alley when the ingredients are so ephemeral and the bust-potential so high.
My early high hopes have faded into a wait-and-see attitude. But May isn't halfway over, and plenty can happen. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for late May and casting my eyes toward June.
My early high hopes have faded into a wait-and-see attitude. But May isn't halfway over, and plenty can happen. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for late May and casting my eyes toward June.
Last edited by a moderator:
Derek Weston
EF5
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Well, I am pulling the trigger and flying out from Philadelphia this Thursday night (5/16). I only have until 5/31 so I waited as long as I could to head out and still get two full weeks. Some years I have flexibility to delay longer and slide the trip into the first week of June, but not this year; I have family obligations the weekend of 6/1, and can't start a trip after that because of work/family obligations. Also I have vacation with the wife in early July so a June chase trip would result in too many weeks off from work within a relatively short period of time. I don't like having to come back before June, especially this year.
But I am hopeful about dryline opportunities during the Fri5/17-Mon 5/20 timeframe, and not even bothering to torture myself by looking at models longer term than that. Remember, with moisture and instability, it's a tinderbox and the slightest spark can create some magic.
It feels good to have definite plans to head out, for better or for worse... It's too stressful to agonize over the perfect time to pull the trigger, especially trying to juggle work and family obligations... It is very difficult to manage a professional calendar while trying to keep all these weeks open for "possible" vacation, and to assure coverage for my absence without being able to tell anyone when I will actually be gone!
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
But I am hopeful about dryline opportunities during the Fri5/17-Mon 5/20 timeframe, and not even bothering to torture myself by looking at models longer term than that. Remember, with moisture and instability, it's a tinderbox and the slightest spark can create some magic.
It feels good to have definite plans to head out, for better or for worse... It's too stressful to agonize over the perfect time to pull the trigger, especially trying to juggle work and family obligations... It is very difficult to manage a professional calendar while trying to keep all these weeks open for "possible" vacation, and to assure coverage for my absence without being able to tell anyone when I will actually be gone!
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
chrisbray
EF4
*wishcasting alert* latest gfs shows what looks like the first attempt at southwestern flow? Way far away starting about Sunday May 26! Hey, only 15 days to go....
Michael Riedl
EF2
12z GFS is continuing tos how a nice Trough ejecting around the 20th of May.
Michael Snyder
EF3
Next Sat the 18th is looking pretty decent in my mind. 500mb showing some SW hope and surface runs showing some decent shear from the ground up.
My Chasecation starts monday, but if something big is going to be going down next weekend Ill try to scramble and get off work to get out on the plains.
Anyone else watching this?
My Chasecation starts monday, but if something big is going to be going down next weekend Ill try to scramble and get off work to get out on the plains.
Anyone else watching this?
Jon Faubion
EF0
- Joined
- Apr 12, 2005
- Messages
- 13
Well I got a big backhalf race the 18th Im sure all hell will break loose on that day lol.
Tony Gilbert
EF1
Fairly much in agreement here James!
Now we always tend to air caution on the extended GFS, but when it is consistent on each run over several days we then tend to relent to some level of validity!
Whilst the GFS model seems weak regarding final 24 hr predictions it nevertheless seems capable of identifying weekly trends!
All in, as mentioned on my earlier post certainly some scope for local storm activity over the next week or two, which is obviously much better than an outright forecast block?
Not a perfect outlook but some scope maybe available for those willing to travel a bit!
PS. If I lived in the USA based on the next 10 days I wouldn't travel far ATM but conversely on a MOD risk would travel several states for a result!
Now we always tend to air caution on the extended GFS, but when it is consistent on each run over several days we then tend to relent to some level of validity!
Whilst the GFS model seems weak regarding final 24 hr predictions it nevertheless seems capable of identifying weekly trends!
All in, as mentioned on my earlier post certainly some scope for local storm activity over the next week or two, which is obviously much better than an outright forecast block?
Not a perfect outlook but some scope maybe available for those willing to travel a bit!
PS. If I lived in the USA based on the next 10 days I wouldn't travel far ATM but conversely on a MOD risk would travel several states for a result!
Dan Robinson
EF5
More importantly, the Euro model also shows some SW flow over the Plains late next week. The flow is pretty weak overall (HPs) but chaseable. No big outbreaks. The cap might be a concern with 700mb temps at 10-12C, but that is breakable as long as it stays on the lower end of that scale. Models often have trouble with weak/subtle waves like this, so I'm not holding my breath until we're within a few days of this pattern.
