Chase case #4

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Quite a range of temperatures across the board with some very cold air to the north and rapid warming across Texas and Louisiana. This is looking like a very early spring or very late fall sort of day - possibly even winter. The saturated airmass is easily visible on satellite, with several lines of Cu now forming in extreme eastern Texas into Arkansas, and another line out ahead that seems to be developing in northern MS into TN. Personally, I feel like it would be good to keep an eye on the area from Junction City up to El Dorado, where we have extensive clearing and a 75/61 spread, but if this is too early or late in the year, it's not going to be that chase-able anyway, since the majority of this particular show will probably be in the dark or late at night, and the storms should be moving quickly.

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EDIT - I'm going to adjust my target just a bit to Searcy, Arkansas.
 
surface maps show 16 degrees up in nortern minesota. C'mon thats too cold to even be on the same map as a tornado outbreak! :shock:

This event is Likely sometime in February judging by that.
 
Just noticed you guys were doing these case studies so I thought I'd give it a go.

I'm drawn south into Tx where I see better dewpoints and temperatures advecting throughout the day. The Shreveport and Lake Charles soundings show some spicy readings for later in the day. Also note the apparent srfc convergence toward the AUS area with some bit of the dryline pushing from that direction. In the region across central / eastern Tx and Louisianna there are also good winds in the upper areas with possible slight divergence near the Tx/La border at 500mb - though it is early in the day at 12z. There also seems to be better backing of sfc winds down in that area which should increase as the low intensifies throughout the remainder of the day due to heating. Already the Lake Charles / Shreveport soundings are showing promising Cape, Helicity, Li, etc and the southern area will also receive more heating from less clouds.

Given also that near 16:50 radar is showing small (but hard) convection beginning to break out near the Tx/La border probably from convergence and overhead jet lifting I would have to go with that area. I'd probably box the whole Tx/La border with a torn box, but I would also be concerned with later nocturnal convection in La as the evening wears on.

My initial target would be San Augustine, Tx with expectations to work my way east into darkness. Note that this would be a terrible chase into tall pine trees and then the swamps and whatever at night in Louisianna. I've actually done a similar chase to this near and after dark back around 2000 or so. It was pretty spooky.
 
I wish I knew the actual date because I'd post it to piss everyone off. Since I don't I guess I'll just go with somewhere in far wc AR. And hey look at me, I'm posting without reading others thoughts! It is soooo hard to do.

I'd stay away from that ofb sinking south with very cold air behind it in sw mo into nw ok, hooking up to the sfc low. Notice the thick cloud sheild south of it too.

Well damn it I know the date again. I can't help myself. I looked up Jarrell and then Ft. Worth. I thought I looked up the right one before those but must not have because I went back to it and I'll be another Monkey's uncle if I'm wrong.....beings I found the exact same sfc chart, lol. PM me if you want the answer early.
 
I guess I need a town. I'll go to a town in AR with 3 e's and 2 b's in it.
 
I'm happy to see these chase cases have taken a life of their own, although I do wish those who figure out the dates of these would stop dropping hints considering it basically ruins the intent of the excercise. I really wish I could participate in this one . . . but, it's been cool reading everyone's forecasts for this case. :)
 
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
I wish I knew the actual date because I'd post it to piss everyone off. Since I don't I guess I'll just go with somewhere in far wc AR. And hey look at me, I'm posting without reading others thoughts! It is soooo hard to do.
Click to expand...

Wow
 
I'm happy to see these chase cases have taken a life of their own, although I do wish those who figure out the dates of these would stop dropping hints considering it basically ruins the intent of the excercise. I really wish I could participate in this one . . . but, it's been cool reading everyone's forecasts for this case.
Click to expand...

Sigh. It must be terribly hard to read the data and post your thoughts.
 
LOL, all this "trouble" and I never even said the actual date/event. And I'm sorry but if you can figure it out from what I did say then you should have known or did know anyway.

Before I figured it out I was going with wc AR well south of the outflow boundary along the dryline just south of the thicker cloud shield that can be seen to the south of the outflow. You can see the outfow is moving south looking at the winds from 12z to 18z in w MO so don't want to be on that thing in that setup. Being north of the cloud shield didn't look enticing either. So what made the most sense was on the dl just south of the thicker clouds.

I never even noticed those radar echos on the TX/LA border, but I imagine they are warm air advection showers getting going with that llj and being so far east of the surface boundary. Don't want any part of that. But, before I re-checked the date I did move my target to se of DFW in TX. I did so because I thought maybe those clouds in c OK would hender things later in AR. Insolation looked pretty certain down there. And hell like I know what all happened this day anyway, the dl further south in TX might be game too. So, my actual target is halfway from DFW to the LA border and 50 miles further south...whatever that is. If you are mad at me for "ruining" this for you I can't help but wonder why then are you reading my thoughts in the first place....but enough on all that, lol.
 
I was going to post my thoughts this morning - but I accidentally read Mike H's post. Sorry. Next time I guess I'll buy a blindfold and get someone else to navigate me to the thread where I can post. You all know as well as I do - if there are posts in a thread - you will read them. It's human-nature. It shouldn't be that hard to follow the rules that Jeff laid down at the beginning, but hey....

I guess I would have started this morning in DFW with good options to where the action may be..........but I didn't have enough time to peruse any other data.

KR
 
Unbelievable. Over HALF of a good forecaster's skills come from their ability to relate current events to previous events that they are able to retain and draw from, note similarities and note their differences. These chase cases are a puzzle that a person uses to put the minimal facts they are presented with on the board into a bigger picture. It's great to see all the various forecast options presented here ... I worked on Jeff's maps and wrote up a forecast BEFORE figuring out which day this was. But then based on the information we had I was able to figure it out ... so sue me.

Tell you what ... if you want a PURE game where NO ONE can possibly present an unfair solution before the rest have the chance to assimilate their facts ... then just post your data and don't let ANYONE post. Everyone can write their ideas on a piece of paper and MAIL them to the leader.
 
I'm feeling kind of lazy on this chase day, I smell a bust, no moisture. Probably just sit this one out. Good luck to all of those chasing today.
 
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