James Gustina
Supporter
Just the similarities between last April and this April for me. I started off with two back-to-back busts last April as well.
Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014
- Thread starter James Gustina
- Start date
Just the similarities between last April and this April for me. I started off with two back-to-back busts last April as well.
chrisbray
EF4
Looks like we will be playing the waiting game again until late next week probably? This cold front is absoultey scouring the moisture out of the CONUS, and doesn't look to be much moisture return ahead of the nex system at the end of this week. Looks like I will have to keep an eye on Wed-Fri of next week, April 23-25, and see if that holds up on any model runs.
James Gustina
Supporter
It does look like a pretty interesting trough out there on the fringe of fantasy land. I'm not concerned yet since we're only halfway through April even though I had to sit out yesterday. Last week of April might still hold something nice.
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chrisbray
EF4
Oh not concerned by any means at this point, just jumpy and eager for storms.
James Gustina
Supporter
GFS is making this next system look not too shabby, the Euro appears to be a bit slower on it though. But it still has a full week to completely get blasted so I'm taking it with a grain of salt until it gets to about hour 120. A final week of April setup that actually puts out nice storms on the western edge of the Alley would be nice for once.
Chris Frost
EF0
Indeed. Still a long way to go but last night's 00z GFS was looking (if anything) less boring around the 24th/25th...ish
chrisbray
EF4
I will say the overnight 6z run still is putting the same system out beginning Wednesday 23. It has been very consistant in this over they past several days - almost unusually consistant for that far out! I'll be interested to see if today's runs keep putting it out there - especially now that we are within the 180 hour strike zone!
James Gustina
Supporter
The Euro came into pretty good agreement as of last night which is very very encouraging. It's looking like a potentially big day in terms of chasing as of right now out in the promised land of chase country from W KS down through the panhandles. Might get a setup that decides it wants to spit out full-blown, discrete tornadic supercells finally.
Derek Weston
EF5
12z GFS certainly looks like a few good days of plains chasing next week. With a third possibly into IA/ILL as the system exits.
Excitement is growing . . .
Excitement is growing . . .
Logan Karsten
Indeed. Trying to tame the excitement as things are several days out. However, depending on which model you go with, it's beginning to look like at least one good day somewhere across the central US. The ECMWF is further north with the energy, which would suggest midwest action. Time will tell, but now is the time to start dusting off the chase gear....
Joe Pudlik
EF1
Obviously still 5-7 days out still...But guidance is already showing moisture being an issue, which has also been an issue the past two events this month.
So any real/significant excitement should probably be muted at this point.
So any real/significant excitement should probably be muted at this point.
The 12Z ECMWF is putting the center of the low right smack in the middle of the Missouri River Valley at 6 pm on Wednesday 4/23. For whatever reason it's showing 2M dewpoints in the warm sector of upper 50s as far north as SW MN to mid 60s the further you go south down the Missouri River down into K5 and OK. Even though it's a week away, I like what I'm seeing.
chrisbray
EF4
GFS has good moisture return with 60-65 dewpoints and some upper 60s starting Thursday and Friday in the warm sector, per 18z run, so moisture may not be a big issue on those days. Obviously I'm aware a lot can change, but i don't see any crashing cold fronts or anything in the next week that would prevent this system from drawing up a decent fetch of moisture over the span of a few days.
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Matt Hunt
EF3
12z GFS today looks pretty good for Wed/Thur. I haven't seen the ECMWF. I've been watching this one since it was first in range. The trends have generally been getting better overall, as earlier the GFS was showing a cut-off low way out west, leading to nearly unidirectional winds along the dryline. Each run now seems to look a little bit better, as the 500mb trough seems to take on a widened stance, and is trending a little further north. As others have said, I've been surprised with the relative consistency over the last several days. It has continued to put the trough over the plains mid-to-late next week. Hopefully things line up well for at least a day or two!
Either way, I'll be chasing, as it's one of two weeks I have available this year to do so.
Either way, I'll be chasing, as it's one of two weeks I have available this year to do so.
Derek Weston
EF5
Unfortunately the ECMWF isn't as kind the GFS. Pushes the thursday setup quite a bit further east, clearing KS entirely and squeezing off most of the southern plains. Pretty badly veered low levels.
(although the GFS did the same thing at 12z today, just not quite as drastic -- does look like Thursday is trending towards iffy for good tornado potential and Wednesday towards better)
Wednesday still looks OK shear wise, but not as optimistic about CAPE, with mostly 1000-1500 j/kg across the region.
Good news is that it doesn't scour the gulf moisture and quickly returns big CAPE to the plains within the next few days after the first wave, even giving us a nice KS play that Saturday. (CAPE > 3000j/kg for a good portion of KS)
I'd take that.
Looks active on either model. Certainly like the ECMWF better right now as it doesn't push a CF well into the gulf like the latest GFS run did after Thursday...
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