Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[Jeff Duda]

I'm on board with this. I hate chasing the majority of Oklahoma, but I keep doing it year after year, and so do many people from 500 miles away. Why? Because, averaged over long periods, we're right in the middle of the region that receives the largest quantity per year of good-looking, chaseable storms.

You're biased - you live there. As do I, and many other chasers. I agree that Oklahoma is not the best overall state to chase in, although there are some wonderful regions. Despite Skip's image, I've had the most ease and enjoyment chasing right along the Red River in southern Harmon through southern Cotton counties.

Helping derail this thread, but the most impressive chase terrain I have ever been on was in South Dakota east of the Missouri River. Pretty damn flat, but with an excellent road network. Eastern North Dakota is just as good. There's just hardly any storms up there save for portions of July and August.

 

[chrisbray]

Believe me I know all to well about how weak Illinois setups/storms usually are. It's about all I ever see. Someday, though, I will make it out to the great plains. Someday. And hopefully I can meet a bunch of you out there!

 

[Adam Lucio]

If Oklahoma didn't get as many tornadoes as it does, people would be about as excited to chase there as Missouri. Luckily, theres just enough decent areas to go with the increased frequency of tornadoes that causes everyone to move there in hopes of becoming the next best chaser.

I for one, despise chasing there a majority of the time, but if thats where the setup is, I'm not gonna let a personal opinion about a state keep me from seeing a tornado.

That being said...hopefully that April 2-3rd system actually materializes into something worthwhile. Im starting to twitch...

 

[Shane Adams]

If Oklahoma didn't get as many tornadoes as it does, people would be about as excited to chase there as Missouri. Luckily, theres just enough decent areas to go with the increased frequency of tornadoes that causes everyone to move there in hopes of becoming the next best chaser.

That plan would've failed miserably in the 2000s.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Chaseability, to me, is a blend of terrain and tornado frequency - not necessarily one or the other alone. Western and northern Ohio, for example, terrain-wise is as good as Illinois and western Kansas, but only gets a worthy setup for tornadoes maybe once a year. I think Oklahoma is certainly near the top when taking all things into consideration.

Illinois is a greatly underrated chasing state. The terrain is not only nearly perfect, but the tornado frequency is on par with the Plains states (take a look at storm data plots). The only thing the Midwest mostly lacks is dryline storms with their attendant 'mothership' structure. Tornado wise, I'd argue that the Midwest (centered on IL) contends for a close second to the Plains. I've been here four years, and I've seen tornadoes every year, mostly within 2 hours of home. And those are just the close-to-home events, there are many more I don't chase upstate due to distance.

Events in the Midwest tend to be scattered throughout the year, as opposed to within a concentrated season. Also, many of our tornado events happen with more subtle setups that aren't synoptically evident and don't manifest themselves until the day of. For this reason, it's not a great 'chase vacation' state like Kansas or Oklahoma, where you can pick two weeks in May and see something. But, it's an ideal place to *live* as a chaser year-round, when you can jump on those subtle 'sleeper' tornado days when they pop up. And we do get our share of big outbreaks, in fact we might have the edge on the Plains when it comes to those! Living in IL, you can get close-to-home tornadoes *plus* Plains states tornado days, which are usually easier to forecast in advance and plan a trip accordingly.

I've always been mystified at Illinois' reputation for weak storms and terrible chasing in a lot of the chase community. I'm not really complaining, as I'm more than happy to continue seeing tornadoes with no other chasers around

 

[chrisbray]

IT must be nice being based in St Louis though, so you can easily get to the plains AND chase Illinois. My problem is I don't really have the ability to chase the Southern Illinois events, due to my location just south of Chicago, and in my opinion that is where the best setups typically manifest for Illinois chases.

 

[Donnie Beasley]

Looking past these next few days, 12Z GFS showing a nice trough with pretty good moisture developing around the 10th. A good ways away but something to keep an eye on.

 

[samuel stone]

Somebody needs to make a composite map, using GIS taking into account road network, topography, biomass, and tornado frequency. I cant. I'm way too busy.. its the truth but its funny because i'm sure everyone else is too.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Somebody needs to make a composite map, using GIS taking into account road network, topography, biomass, and tornado frequency. I cant. I'm way too busy.. its the truth but its funny because i'm sure everyone else is too.

It's been brought up: www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?25885-Chase-terrain-suitability-study-map

 

[Chris DeAngelo]

Thanks Skip! usually everyone calls this area, "no man's land".

A quick and dirty sketch:

 

[chrisbray]

Looks like it could be quite a while before the next decent event.

 

[James Gustina]

Plains look like they won't be lighting up for quite awhile with the flow regime supposed to set up per the long range models. I'm getting shades of 2013 here.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Looks like it could be quite a while before the next decent event.

Plains look like they won't be lighting up for quite awhile with the flow regime supposed to set up per the long range models. I'm getting shades of 2013 here.

Next weekend, as well as the following weekend (currently in model fantasyland, which goes without saying even though I just did) might just change your minds.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm getting shades of 2013 here.

Please elaborate.

word count

 

[chrisbray]

Next weekend, as well as the following weekend (currently in model fantasyland, which goes without saying even though I just did) might just change your minds.

Next weekend I am still kind of iffy about. Every run of the models seems to paint it differently. But I agree two weeks out looks good, we will see if that holds up