Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[James Gustina]

Next week is looking potent on both long-range solutions, the timing is the only thing that's off. I'm hoping Wednesday holds it together, because that could end up in beautiful chase country and it might very well end western Oklahoma's "dormancy" as it were.

 

[chrisbray]

GFS keeps flattening the wave somewhat, and speeding up the ejection. I'm hoping Thursday/Friday holds something for Iowa - western Illinois.

 

[Matt Hunt]

12z GFS today is not looking as favorable. Looks like moisture will be an issue on Wed, and it's ejecting too fast for Thur to work. Looks like a huge linear mess on Thur, as the only spots with backed winds are outside of the moisture, and ahead of the 500mb flow. Sounds like this is more in line with what the ECMWF has been showing. Dang it!

 

[Joe Pudlik]

12z GFS today is not looking as favorable. Looks like moisture will be an issue on Wed, and it's ejecting too fast for Thur to work. Looks like a huge linear mess on Thur, as the only spots with backed winds are outside of the moisture, and ahead of the 500mb flow. Sounds like this is more in line with what the ECMWF has been showing. Dang it!

Yep. The GFS has trended towards the ECMWF the past three runs.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'd really like to see that Hudson Bay vortex diminish before getting too excited. It seems to be dominating and squashing any good attempts at western troughing.

 

[Derek Weston]

12z GFS today is not looking as favorable. Looks like moisture will be an issue on Wed, and it's ejecting too fast for Thur to work. Looks like a huge linear mess on Thur, as the only spots with backed winds are outside of the moisture, and ahead of the 500mb flow. Sounds like this is more in line with what the ECMWF has been showing. Dang it!

Not all bad... ecmwf had been showing more activity with better moisture after this first trough.

 

[James Gustina]

Looks like the Gulf doesn't get backhanded after this first trough thankfully. I would not be opposed to the week after next doing it. Studying for exams and chasing sounds like a nice trade-off for a week.

 

[Shawn Schuman]

Looks like the Gulf doesn't get backhanded after this first trough thankfully. I would not be opposed to the week after next doing it. Studying for exams and chasing sounds like a nice trade-off for a week.

12z GFS and majority of ensemble members look pretty ugly and Omega-ish in that period. Too early to be very concerned yet, but something to keep an eye on.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

The 12z GFS, taken verbatim, from hour 0-384, is designed to tick off chasers. Seriously, if we go straight from this to an omega block I may take up javelin throwing.

 

[John Wetter]

Using the HopWRF CFS Ensemble page, May certainly shows some interesting periods in the long range. http://cfs.hopwrf.info/SvrPlots.php

 

[Matt Hunt]

The 12z GFS, taken verbatim, from hour 0-384, is designed to tick off chasers. Seriously, if we go straight from this to an omega block I may take up javelin throwing.

I believe you are correct. Beyond 1 week out it shows multiple days of chasing in the best terrain, and remains consistent until you get within a week, then... just kidding!

 

[chrisbray]

I won't give up. Come on 18z GFS, restore the faith...

 

[Matt Hunt]

I won't give up. Come on 18z GFS, restore the faith...

Yeah, still too far out to give up. I'm sure it'll continue to change, hopefully for the better! 2-3 days of chasing would be a great way to spend my break!

 

[chrisbray]

Overnight GFS doesn't look too bad. There is still something to be had here.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Overnight GFS doesn't look too bad. There is still something to be had here.

The 06z run of the GFS did look quite a bit better for next Wednesday at least. However, the hopes of a two day event continue to look poor. Wednesday 4/23 looks good for western KS, especially if dewpoints are low to mid 60's as depicted in the 06z run, as compared to upper 50's range on the 00z GFS. CAPE looks excellent on the 06z run and dewpoints low to mid 60's is definitely good to see. Directional shear is amazing, but winds actually decrease between 850mb and 500mg, but this shouldn't cause too many issues with excellent turning with height. Thursday continues to be sped up and looks like all of KS and OK will be out of play, unless it slow it down again. Anyway, probably too much detail for 5 days out, but hoping the trend of the 06z continues with more moisture return into western KS as opposed to what the 00z was putting out.