Marcus Diaz
EF5
Nothing to see here folks. Everyone just keep looking down the line. Maybe Wednesday will be good in the DFW metro. Yeah everyone plan on chasing that instead. Nothing ever happens in the panhandle.
Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014
- Thread starter James Gustina
- Start date
Nothing to see here folks. Everyone just keep looking down the line. Maybe Wednesday will be good in the DFW metro. Yeah everyone plan on chasing that instead. Nothing ever happens in the panhandle.
James Gustina
Supporter
Definitely elevated on this sounding, but those would maybe be some pretty LPs out in the eastern panhandle if the shear environment is half as potent as it's projected right now. Even further north looks spectacular, doesn't have the same inverted V garbage the stuff down the dryline has.
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rdale
EF5
WDT is releasing their seasonal outlook now, basically "not as bad as 2013, but nothing favors any early season high-end events."
Conner Tune
Any thoughts about tomorrow's setup??
chrisbray
EF4
My thoughts right now are, it's a real stretch to get enough moisture/instability for much to happen
James Gustina
Supporter
The Hi-res models don't like what the NAM is cooking up. Some break precip way back west towards the 35 corridor. Regardless, looks like it'll still be in the clusterfluff that is far eastern Oklahoma/western AR/southwest Missouri. NAM also looks like it's being a little aggressive on the overall environment.
Conner Tune
Ok. I was planning on driving a few hours east tomorrow to take some video of the supercells developing, but I'll probably just save the gas money.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
MD out, tornado watch imminent for parts of eastern Kansas, far NE Oklahoma, and western Missouri. Ready or not, it's here! Is it a particularly impressive setup? No. Do long-lived, photogenic, chaseable tornadoes seem likely? No. Is it POSSIBLE? Yes. That's all we need, and it's still March!
Skip Talbot
EF5
What's that, the first bust of the season? Hehe. I felt more confident about blowing today's setup off given the potential setups the GFS has been lining up, but the 12z GFS is making me wish I was barreling down 44 right now with a machete in one hand to hack away the jungles and a pair of binoculars in the other hand.
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chrisbray
EF4
I've never chased in Missouri. What's the breakdown of the terrain/vegitation over the various sectors of the state? Are there any decent chase corridors?
Skip Talbot
EF5
North of 70 is semi-chaseable, and north of 36 is decent at times, but still has hills and trees. 44 is completely unchasable in portions. The MO bootheel and the floodplain south along eastern AR are flat as a pancake, gridded, and treeless making this area ideal. It's a relatively narrow stretch of land though so you may not have much time on a fast moving storm before you get left at the river. This area is prone to flash flooding too (it's a flood plain).
The basic rule of thumb are areas south of 70 and also east of 35 are no good. The MO bootheel and eastern AR are a big exception.
chrisbray
EF4
So sounds like the Northwest corner and the Southeast corner are about it!
It would be pretty cool if we had a state by state breakdown for the plains/midwest/MS valley that showed what sections of each state have to offer in terms of terrain and roads. I know Tim's storm chaser handbook has that to some extent though.
It would be pretty cool if we had a state by state breakdown for the plains/midwest/MS valley that showed what sections of each state have to offer in terms of terrain and roads. I know Tim's storm chaser handbook has that to some extent though.
Skip Talbot
EF5
A quick and dirty sketch:
chrisbray
EF4
Haha that's great work! I've also amazingly never chased the Southern thrid of Illinois from about I-70 south, and actually the farthest south I've been is Springfield on the west side and Lawrenceville on the east border (non chase trips) and I can't imagine anything in that area being great terrain either, especially once you get to the far southern reaches of Illinois where it looks as if it's entirely forest
Scott Sims
EF1
Skip's map pretty much nails the Missouri chase description. As an extreme Southern Illinois chaser, I consider the Bootheel and Eastern AR some of the best parts of my extended home area, along with central Illinois, of course.
Northern Missouri terrain-wise is 'not great' as skip says, but my biggest gripe in the middle of that yellow blob on his map is a HUGE WSR88D hole. If you get a storm in the Kirksville-Macon area, you cant see anything below 10,000 ft on the four covering Radars(KEAX, KLSX, KDVN, KDMX).
UPDATE: chrisbray, I posted before I saw your Southern Illinois comments. It is somewhat of a challenge south of I-70, and especially south of I-64, but it's not as bad as Central Missouri until you get south of Illinois Route 13(Carbondale-Marion) in the Shawnee National Forest.
Northern Missouri terrain-wise is 'not great' as skip says, but my biggest gripe in the middle of that yellow blob on his map is a HUGE WSR88D hole. If you get a storm in the Kirksville-Macon area, you cant see anything below 10,000 ft on the four covering Radars(KEAX, KLSX, KDVN, KDMX).
UPDATE: chrisbray, I posted before I saw your Southern Illinois comments. It is somewhat of a challenge south of I-70, and especially south of I-64, but it's not as bad as Central Missouri until you get south of Illinois Route 13(Carbondale-Marion) in the Shawnee National Forest.
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