2024-05-06 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/NE

[Jason N]

From all of the models I've looked at, this event looks to me to be more likely to verify as a high risk for wind than for tornadoes.

yeah I agree, seems like Wichita northward has good potential for LEWPS, and strong convective outflows , maybe even localized cold pool development

 

[Derek Weston]

Interesting day. I haven't done deep analysis like some of you have -- I'm not chasing -- but I'm still not overly impressed by most of the simulated hodos where turning-with-height tornado potential is concerned. (at least for a high end event)

The 500-850 cross-overs are meager. A lot of the 850s have slight westerly component. I'd like it a lot better if there were more easterly surface flow. I just haven't had good success on days like this in the plains where tornadoes are concerned.

At any rate, I'd play the tail end of the line and hope for a few isolated monsters south into OK. Maybe we'll get lucky and have a bunch of (chasable) embedded sups in KS for those who stick around up there.

OKC area sim hodo 0z

 

[Jeff Duda]

Jeff,

are they running todays WoF's models for this event?.. I saw they were pretty used pretty recent, but they seem not to update them everyday, just selectively.

Yes. The Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment is in Week 2 and WoFS runs every day during the week for the duration of the experiment (usually ends at the end of May or very beginning of June). For potent events WoFS will run on the weekends, too.

Forecast graphics site: Cb-WoFS - Home

 

[Bo Adams]

For anyone that does plan to chase Oklahoma tomorrow... please be aware the area has received plenty of rain over the last week. So if you don't have 4WD vehicle, try to avoid any dirt roads. Situational awareness will definitely need to be a focal point to any chase tomorrow.

Thanks for the heads up much appreciated

 

[Brian McKibben]

I just found an even more ridiculous cherry picked sounding near Tecumseh, OK for 03Z.

STP of 23.9 is flat out insane.

 

[Derek Weston]

I just found an even more ridiculous cherry picked sounding near Tecumseh, OK for 03Z.

STP of 23.9 is flat out insane.

You get lots of crazy readings at hours like this after the LLJ kicks in and helicity numbers go crazy. That's rarely realized, however.

 

[Brian McKibben]

While my "extreme risk" goes as far south as Edmond, take a look at the max divergence on the 300mb chart. The divergence over Wichita is (and I hate this word) "insane."

Nadocast has its 45% area with a large 30% region.

Yes... that upper level divergence is definitely insane. We should get some great venting today. I wonder if there will be any issues with storm in KS with Anvil seeding from that upper flow.

 

[Brian McKibben]

How does everyone feel about the nadocast?

I think it did a great job on 4/26 and 4/27. But I haven't been tracking it that long. How has it performed on other events?

Today's 14z

 

[Mike Smith]

Jeff, the link I have for WoFS doesn't seem to be working. Would you forward, please? Thank you.

 

[Jason N]

Jeff, the link I have for WoFS doesn't seem to be working. Would you forward, please? Thank you.

I am on the page now, it was loading "super slow" it might be caught in the middle of a run.. I dont know if its hot or cold runs , but based on what jeff said earlier with them having been using it, it should be hot runs, but when I looked at the page today, I only say a 17Z run, and it was pretty empty. so Maybe the 17Z was the first cold for today?

 

[Jason N]

Current VWP out of Vance.

 

[Mike Smith]

Jason, would forward the link? Thanks!

 

[Jason N]

https://cbwofs.nssl.noaa.gov/forecast?model=WOFSRun20240506-133839d1&product=t_2__ens_mean&sector=wofs

try that Mike

 

[Mike Smith]

Here's Wichita's. Pretty prime! TICT's is at least as bad.

 

[Jason N]

yeah that's starting to shape up in the first 3km