2024-05-06 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/NE

[Blake Naftel]

For late Monday afternoon into early evening, a region south of I-40 in southwest Oklahoma, initially along a line west of HW 283 and along HW 62 [Altus/Hollis] within a forecast rich Theta-E regime, backed southeasterly surface winds, subtle diffluent 500 flow and ahead of a suggested dryline bulge has a potent hint at this point [typed at 9:30a on Sunday 5/5]. The caveat to this potential scenario unfolding at all is the forecast 9-11° C temperatures aloft which would/could suppress development or on the other side of the equation, enough parameters align to allow for perhaps one or two supercells to develop by early evening in that regime as some CAMs allude to. Obviously geospatial differences will happen regarding actual dryline position, even pushing this suggested focus zone south of the Red River to near or south of Vernon, Texas. This is not to detract from another concerning zone well to the north along to east of I-35, ITC east along the OK-KS border, in the late afternoon through evening hours in a region that has already been recently socked with severe weather, tornadoes and flooding. After dusk and into the overnight hours does get very concerning for tornado potential for Central and Eastern Oklahoma, but would personally not pursue that activity. For the moment, the southern option is where I would venture towards for either a tornadic supercell or two before sunset, or a complete bust and a visit to a local Braum’s.

 

[Mikayla Norris]

It appears waking up late means everyone has already gotten around to posting my thoughts on tomorrow's setup I have nothing to add meteorologically, but from a chasing perspective, tomorrow might have to be an "ask my boss for a favor" type of day. If I can leave Altus soon enough, my current plan would be to target the US-183 corridor. The thinking is to allow storms to fire to my west and move east-ish off the dryline, and utilizing the N-S highway to fine tune my position. Hopefully being so familiar with the local roads in this part of OK could allow me to minimize my interactions with chaser convergence. Or maybe even the windier and hillier terrain around the Wichita Mountains could discourage folks from venturing out this way? After literally getting stuck in traffic on 27 April, and being lucky we were chasing the tail end storm, I don't want a repeat that tests that luck again.

If I can't leave Altus soon enough, then I suppose I'll be using my standard "frantically play catch up" style of chasing to hopefully see something before dark. Should be an interesting day regardless. Be safe out there folks!

 

[Matt Piechota]

For late Monday afternoon into early evening, a region south of I-40 in southwest Oklahoma, initially along a line west of HW 283 and along HW 62 [Altus/Hollis] within a forecast rich Theta-E regime, backed southeasterly surface winds, subtle diffluent 500 flow and ahead of a suggested dryline bulge has a potent hint at this point [typed at 9:30a on Sunday 5/5]. The caveat to this potential scenario unfolding at all is the forecast 9-11° C temperatures aloft which would/could suppress development or on the other side of the equation, enough parameters align to allow for perhaps one or two supercells to develop by early evening in that regime as some CAMs allude to. Obviously geospatial differences will happen regarding actual dryline position, even pushing this suggested focus zone south of the Red River to near or south of Vernon, Texas. This is not to detract from another concerning zone well to the north along to east of I-35, ITC east along the OK-KS border, in the late afternoon through evening hours in a region that has already been recently socked with severe weather, tornadoes and flooding. After dusk and into the overnight hours does get very concerning for tornado potential for Central and Eastern Oklahoma, but would personally not pursue that activity. For the moment, the southern option is where I would venture towards for either a tornadic supercell or two before sunset, or a complete bust and a visit to a local Braum’s.

This is the best play IMO. It’s where you have strong upper level flow nosing in along with a more westerly component to it, leading to more perpendicular flow to the dryline. This is where the better shear vectors reside leading to more discrete storms. It could be later on in the evening but seems to be the better play.

 

[Blake Naftel]

After literally getting stuck in traffic on 27 April, and being lucky we were chasing the tail end storm, I don't want a repeat that tests that luck again.

A well advertised severe weather event, single supercell scenario within Oklahoma or either side of the Red River in early May, regardless of it being a weekday = increased gonzo chaser traffic, crowded main roads, erratic drivers, potential accidents and the type of day I tend to avoid at this point, certainly when long-distance travel from MI is involved. Will bypass actually chasing this event in favor for other convective scenarios later in May/June, yet definitely echo the statement/s to be extra safe out there regardless of what transpires.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

I am avoiding this one like the plague. Likng Wednesday in MO/IL.

 

[Mike Smith]

I am avoiding this one like the plague. Likng Wednesday in MO/IL.

Because?

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Personal reasons will keep me here anyway, but it will be a complete chaser zoo, I have grown to loathe the hordes.

 

[Mike Smith]

Personal reasons will keep me here anyway, but it will be a complete chaser zoo, I have grown to loathe the hordes.

Fair enough. Thank you for responding.

 

[Brian McKibben]

For anyone that does plan to chase Oklahoma tomorrow... please be aware the area has received plenty of rain over the last week. So if you don't have 4WD vehicle, try to avoid any dirt roads. Situational awareness will definitely need to be a focal point to any chase tomorrow.

 

[Amelia Urquhart]

When my final ends at 3:30 tomorrow I'm gonna need to make a choice of northwest vs southwest vs west central Oklahoma very quickly and commit to it. My final is just a presentation instead of an exam and my professor is pretty supportive of my chasing, so I might be able to get my presentation done near the start and leave early. Not looking forward to the convergence, might be making a special effort to keep my distance tomorrow.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I'm on the fence about chasing tomorrow. I've been through quite a few chaser convergence events starting with Kingfisher in 2010 and most recently in Hinton a little over a week ago. I've always been aware of it, but have a really hard time avoiding it since I chase alone and don't leave the pavement if I can help it. I didn't see barely a soul on that Hinton storm as it moved its way up from Roosevelt. Minutes after it went tornado warned every chaser in the nation showed up and I was in gridlocked traffic from HWY 152 north and lost the storm pretty much at that point (as everyone else did). I did pretty well with patience but I've thought about it more and more since then.

If you can't really stay up with the storm you're chasing and it's not enjoyable because you're frustrated with traffic, avoiding accidents, can't pull off because there's so many others filling any turnout, afraid to turn out because it may be a while before you can get back on the road, not to mention worrying about getting slammed by the storm itself and having no way out, then what's the point? When I was younger I didn't care as much, but now I do.

I figure all the media chasers, youtube chasers, chase tours, chase-cationers, the regulars (chasers) and the locals will all be out in force tomorrow as is standard for May these days. Is it worth all the possible grief? Dunno, but I don't need to see a tornado that bad.

That being said, if I do get out I may head out to western or northern Oklahoma or southern Kansas as "alternative" targets, plus it would allow me to be close to home and family if anything approaches OKC. Plus, SW Oklahoma might produce one of those I-44 specials where turnpike chasing isn't much fun either and I'd like to avoid that as well.

 

[Patrick K]

The target area has definitely moved south compared to late last week. Recent CAMs are depicting a cold front in north and central KS, which will provide more widespread forcing and like several have said above, shear and storm motion are now more parallel to the front/dryline in this area, so onset of linear mode will likely be much sooner. The 12z NAM is predicting linear mode almost immediately throughout KS, while the 18z HRRR maintains discrete mode longer. Essentially all of the CAMs are in agreement for a nice lengthy period of discrete mode further south in OK. Several models depict a lone powerhouse supercell raking across south-central/north-central OK.

Some of the earlier potential flies-in-the-ointment seem to be resolving with cloud cover likely to be somewhat broken ahead of the dryline, dewpoints less of a concern in the OK target area, and mid-level shear vectors more favorable in OK as well. One new downside is the depiction of an isolated long-track supercell somewhere in OK, which seems likely to be the storm of the day, and will lead to mega chaser convergence. Just to compound things further, storm motion will be relatively fast. Stay safe out there, everyone!

 

[Amelia Urquhart]

I haven't seen much discussion of it yet, but I think low-level lapse rates could end up limiting tomorrow's tornado potential in Oklahoma. I've been working with some of John Peter's research with parcel entrainment which also accounts for buoyancy reductions through cloud condensate loading, and using it shows a significant reduction in low-level buoyancy. Left skew-T uses pseudoadiabatic ascent (all condensate removed immediately) and right skew-T uses irreversible adiabatic ascent (all condensate retained within parcel).

(Kingfisher, Oklahoma - 00Z - RAP)



Other NWP is a bit more optimistic, with much less neutral stability in the lower levels.

(Lawton, Oklahoma - 23Z - NAM 3km)



I definitely expect to be playing the LLLRs tomorrow more than anything else. I'd worry about precip loading killing all tornado potential in any environment with shallower lapse rates, though it's also worth keeping in mind the potential for local storm-scale environmental modifications and dynamic pressure accelerations from any surface based meso that does manage to get established in such an environment.

 

[Mike Smith]

I've spent the better part of 3 hours on this forecast:

Great Plains: Dangerous Storms Monday!

Tornado Forecast Valid 2:30pm Monday Until 6am Tuesday For the first time since I created my 4 point risk scale four years ago, I am forecas...

www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com

Jeff Piotrowski just pointed out that STL U's #1 analog for tomorrow is 4-26-91 (gasp!). I think it looks like 5-8-03. Both were high risk days.

Be careful tomorrow!

 

[Mike Smith]

Amelia, would you please add the locations of the soundings? Thank you.