2024-05-06 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/NE

[Jeff Duda]

During the last tornado outbreak the cb-WoFS website was in and out throughout, presumably due to extremely high visitor count and server hits/requests. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a similar behavior is noted today. Don't depend on the site being available.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Arrived in Medicine Lodge, Kansas about an hour ago. I'm about 90% committed to the dryline storms rather than the indicated lead activity farther east. I fear that the latter may not become established in time. I also held off pursuing the storms that initiated at DDC as 1.) a good chance I'd not make it even with a straight shot north at them and 2.) initiation looks imminent farther south. I don't see any one area in and just outside of the high risk that looks more favored over another. I do think southern Kansas may have more daylight activity than farther south, which is why I chose to target here. Slightly concerned about storms lining out up here, but so far that doesn't seem to be occurring.

 

[Dave C]

I just found an even more ridiculous cherry picked sounding near Tecumseh, OK for 03Z.

STP of 23.9 is flat out insane.

I note that sounding is contaminated though and may have been taken too close to convection, a low, etc. I speculate that is why there are parameters basically outside of reality.

I like the SPC RAP mesoanalysis and surface observations tools once on the morning of storms and tend to ignore most medium range model outputs, maybe a glance at a few CAMs. Current RAP hourly shows much more sane helicity, among other things, in the area. Trending toward 200-300m2/s2 by 21-00Z. SigTor is ~5-6 in some areas.

Not downplaying the event, much of the area is already statistically primed for SigTor according to many data sources, including the RAP hourly.

RAP Hourly SigTor statistical assessment @ 3PM CDT



I was going to add that moisture convergence hints at convection soon on TX panhandle/OK border but radar shows it is already starting. Good luck to all who are out, the chaos has begun.


RAP Hourly Surface Moisture Convergence @3PM CDT

 

[Mark Gressman Jr]

18z NAM3K is still showing tail-end charley further south than the RAP and HRRR. 0-1km takes off with the low level jet around 00z, and STP and helicity tracks are pegged. The 23z forecast sounding for south of Norman shows 3,900 CAPE and 350 0-1km helicity without convective contamination. Not sure if the temp discrepancy at 700mb, or the position of upper support is the reason for the disagreement with the other CAMs, but if that verifies, that's where I'd wanna be.... even with the close proximity to OKC.

 

[Jamie H]

KWTV in OKC will be broadcast on Tyler Media if anyone is looking for radio coverage while chasing.

Radio – Tyler Media

tylermedia.com

 

[Mike Smith]

First tornado warning of the day for a radar indicated tornado near Larned, KS.

Personally, I think the storm near Great Bend has even better tornado likelihood.

 

[Jesse Risley]

NSSL 20Z sounding at I-40 and Hwy 281 S of Geary shows a pretty stalwart cap further south. The storms out in western Oklahoma are still west of the primary moisture gradient so they'll need some time to mature as they work east. In the immediate term, the primary tornado risk will probably remain over west central Kansas until the Oklahoma storms work into better moisture and/ or see some erosion of the convective inhibition.

 

[Mike Smith]

Wasn't Kansas supposed to be lined out by now?

 

[Jeff Duda]

21Z WoFS seems to finally be narrowing in on a solution for the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Very nice depiction of the gradual loss of predictability with the probability plumes gradually diffusing in space with eastward extent.

 

[Jason N]

21Z WoFS seems to finally be narrowing in on a solution for the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Very nice depiction of the gradual loss of predictability with the probability plumes gradually diffusing in space with eastward extent.

that's exactly what I have been looking at and I think you're right based on current radar picture/presentation. I was looking at the 9km 50 strokes, gives a similar visual.

 

[Jesse Risley]

NWS saying that the 21z sounding still shows a bit of a cap over central Oklahoma, but storms initiated in areas of less quality moisture too. As they work east and, if surface winds continue to back, the tornado potential in C OK should increase with time as we get close to 0z.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Questions begin to abound when you see semi-discrete storms right within the bullseye of the VTP and they're barely showing signs of rotation. Not even tornado warned.





Even 0-3-km CAPE is AOA 150 in that area. You'd think those storms would be going apeshit!

 

[Dan Robinson]

Activity northeast of Pratt is lining out, looks like garbage at 5:45pm.

 

[Jason N]

I am kind of wondering if the clouds to the east of the CI locations kept SFC temps a little lower than what the Models forecasted, perhaps stunting the environment a bit compared to the forecast?? just seems like the CAPE environment is rich but its surprising to see how long its taking, the shear component is keeping the radar presentation active for sure, guess the LLJ needs just a bit more looking at hodo's, but to me the mid upper level nose of the jet and trough should be in its best position now and in the next 1-2hrs.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Per GOES West Meso Sector, you can see agitated cumulus and TCU in southern into central Oklahoma. The CAP was weakening per the 21z sounding out of OUN.

I am not sure if we will have enough time for open warm sector storms though.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Central Kansas storms are undercut and linear with outflow way ahead of updrafts. New convection trying to go northwest of ICT is mushy and struggling. Also feels cold outside. I'm heading east, undecided about dropping south ahead of the northern storm in OK or just calling the day and heading home for a chance at making tomorrow's setup.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Per Mid Level Water Vapor... it looks like significant height falls have now reached the OK/TX border.

I'd expect new storms to explode on the DL.

 

[Jason N]

is it me or does the Vance hodo set at BRM look not so favorable in the lowest 1km and below? I wonder if that's just interference with the cell to the SW maybe.. hmm

 

[Jesse Risley]

The nose of the upper-level jet core is beginning to spread over the TX/OK panhandle region so if nothing else I'd expect the storms out west to explode soon and begin the evolution of the nocturnal show.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Two towering cumulus attempted to break the cap in central and south central OK. You can briefly see they bust through on WV, but didn't finish the job.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Two towering cumulus attempted to break the cap in central and south central OK. You can briefly see they bust through on WV, but didn't finish the job.View attachment 25317

OUN is getting their 0z sounding data right now and stating that there is still a wee bit of CINH present but that it is "just about gone."

 

[James Wilson]

The nose of the upper-level jet core is beginning to spread over the TX/OK panhandle region so if nothing else I'd expect the storms out west to explode soon and begin the evolution of the nocturnal show.

This cell by Clinton is really starting to blow up so I believe it

 

[Jason N]

I think Jeff was onto to something about a possible gigantic bust. , but its still somewhat early, but I see those supercells now seemingly forming a line.. destructive interference. I did see some of the CAMS form a few discrete cells later tonight NE of OKC. so I am sure this story isn't over just yet.

 

[Jason N]

This cell by Clinton is really starting to blow up so I believe it

yeah, the tail end charlie.. might be a merger happening soon to, have to keep watch on that one for a bit.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I think Jeff was onto to something about a possible gigantic bust. , but its still somewhat early, but I see those supercells now seemingly forming a line.. destructive interference. I did see some of the CAMS form a few discrete cells later tonight NE of OKC. so I am sure this story isn't over just yet.

I'm not convinced that it will bust yet, BUT that the daytime potential for highly photogenic, visible tornadoes is narrowing or rapidly closing. However, in the next 2-3 hours I'd expect the actual tornado potential to amplify and remain solid into the middle of the night. It could still be a very dangerous night for central and eastern OK and possibly far SE KS into W MO. Further north the QLCS tornado threat remains real into NE KS and MO and extending into S IA and points eastward. There are far fewer tornado reports than initially thought with the earliest discrete storms in NC OK and SC KS but I wouldn't say it's close to a bust..yet. Still some CINH on the 00z OUN sounding but as the upper-level jet noses into the region and the LLJ amplifies you have a plethora of CAPE, very favorable LCLs, ample streamwise vorticity, and what should be more than adequate low-level shear. While a "bust" would be a best-case scenario for the residents it still holds the potential to be a volatile evening.