2025-03-14 EVENT: MO/AR/IL/IA/TN/MS/LA

[Jason N]

I should point out that the successive past several runs have given some indications, when compared to short term RAP meso-analysis/fcst currently seems to favor a bit further south ( Tail-end-Charlie ) where the air is a little less convectively disturbed / disrupted and a little better DP moisture nosing. The obvious main issue of trafficability, views, tree blockage as you're a lot closer to and inside the Mark Twain and Ozark forests. Now, I personally haven't chased in the Springfield, Branson, West plains area before, so I can't speak to the local terrain and views that locals might know better to say if that area is really a viable safe or worth it, option.

 

[Jason N]

Completely agree. If I were at SPC, I would have it "high risk" 60 miles either side of a line from 30 mi NNW of UIN to 50 SSE of STL. Farther south, the tornado point probability will be lower but strong tornadoes are likey after 10pm.

I would also be forecasting a high risk Saturday.

I'm really worried about the casualty toll from this 2-day event.

Looks like we sneezed and SPC perked up, the high risk is there now for Sat.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The latest GOES-East image-for-the-ages says it all, nothing short of shouting "tornado outbreak" especially with those expansive clear skies in the warm sector.



The surface chart is also a save-for-posterity one:

 

[John Farley]

Not sure how you chase this:

AT 730 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR WILLIAMSBURG, OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WELLSVILLE,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

That is the big issue with these, especially in largely-wooded terrain, but if I still lived in the St. Louis area I would probably be out there trying.

 

[William Monfredo]

Nicely spread-out supercells across Arkansas into Missouri! Little Rock radar @ 10:53 p.m. CST, Base Reflectivity, Tilt 1

 

[Jason N]

The latest GOES-East image-for-the-ages says it all, nothing short of shouting "tornado outbreak" especially with those expansive clear skies in the warm sector.

View attachment 26829

The surface chart is also a save-for-posterity one:

View attachment 26830

So, who wants to fly into Denver Airport right now! lol ... NOPE!

 

[Dan Robinson]

St. Louis NWS has surveyed 2 EF2s in their CWA so far from this event:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1901077303914098855

I'll eventually get around to a chase log and video (probably tomorrow). One of the 2 I saw yesterday was very close to home, within 2 miles and appears to be at least EF2. With the limited time I had today I went out to document some of the damage:

EF2 Tornadoes in the St. Louis metro at Oakville, MO and Mascoutah, New Baden and Trenton, IL on March 14, 2025

 

[William Monfredo]

Two nighttime EF-4s in Arkansas according to NWS Little Rock:
* A high-end EF-4 tornado near Diaz in Jackson County had peak windspeed around 190 mph &...
* A lower-end EF-4 storm near Larkin in Izard County had strongest winds likely ~ 170 mph.

 

[John Farley]

This video (not mine, one circulating widely on the internet) shows a plane taking off from Lambert Airport in St. Louis as the Chesterfield-Florissant tornado passed very close to the airport. Why this plane was allowed to take off, given the tornado warning and expected path of the tornado, is beyond me.

plane taking off with tornado - Suchen Videos

www.bing.com

 

[Mike Smith]

Wow, John, thanks for posting!

In my twitter coverage Friday evening, I emphasized the tornado was pass over or near Lambert. I can't believe they let air operations go on!

 

[Dan Robinson]

Here are two screenshots from the Damage Assessment Toolkit showing tornado paths surveyed and rated so far from Friday night. 3 EF2s in the St. Louis region. At least 6 EF3s and 2 EF4s in the northeastern AR/MO bootheel region.