2025-05-18 EVENT: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Derek Weston]

Classic looking plains setup likely to unfold Sunday. Latest GFS/NAM paints a promising picture for tornadic supercells; in particular near the triple point in KS where EHI looks to be maximized later in the day. Questions remain on the exact placement of the warm-front with the NAM favoring southern KS and the GFS northern KS.

Shear displays good turning with height even if strength of said shear may be a bit meager overall. However, strong instability, perhaps on the order of > 3000 J/KG across portions of KS and OK, should help make up for this. Biggest issue would be capping due to the bulk of the upper energy yet to swing into the region. Early returns on models like NAMNST seem promising, though.

Strong tornadoes in the 0z timeframe look like a distinct possibility if ingredients come together as they have a chance to.

My first plains chase of 2025.

 

[Andrew Fryhover]

Welcome back to the Plains! I'm currently leaning toward targeting Woodward, OK up into Kansas. The 70s dewpoints, and super high cape = evening May tornadoes in OK and Kansas. What more could I ask for. Hoping to get a structure shot with tor underneath. Slow chase season for me so far. I tend to stay close to home here in Oklahoma. I did drive to Arkansas for that event that produced big tornadoes near Texarkana. My only tornado so far this year was the Night time Tor near Miami, Texas.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

This might be my inclination to be pessimistic talking, but Sunday is feeling like a high chance of a bust. Later arriving energy, minimal height falls, narrow warm sector, clouds appear to be pervasive near the dryline... Seems like I've chased dozens of these and, despite the incredible parameters and massive EHI numbers, they rarely pan out. Sincerely hope I'm wrong on this one, and I'll be out there just like everyone else.

 

[Derek Weston]

This might be my inclination to be pessimistic talking, but Sunday is feeling like a high chance of a bust. Later arriving energy, minimal height falls, narrow warm sector, clouds appear to be pervasive near the dryline... Seems like I've chased dozens of these and, despite the incredible parameters and massive EHI numbers, they rarely pan out. Sincerely hope I'm wrong on this one, and I'll be out there just like everyone else.

Yeah, the fabled "day before the day" that often enough doesn't turn out. (or ends up producing your some of your best stuff)

Latest NAM is ejecting a nice bit of energy into Western KS now. Sunday has been trending up, I think. (could just be overly excited to get back to Kansas for a chase though, haha)

 

[Jason N]

I don't see a bust per say, I do wonder about the convective initiation timing and the mode though. it appears that there could be a pretty quick upscale growth from initial supercell development once initiation occurs, so the "quality" could become an issue over time and that's depending on the model bias looking towards that future.

The ARW seems to be centered more on a discreet, while the HRRR is definitely looking at upscale growth (which on the 00Z run started at around 18Z "yikes" while interacting with larger scale lift around the front, later runs have trended downwards on that coverage. Hopefully todays 12Z run will hopefully give some additional guidance on timing and not be so bullish on convection and later on timing... ( so a lot of this IMO is dependent on the run you look at) so I think it needs a little more time to figure out the closer-in dynamics at the sub 700MB levels and especially the boundary layer and below.

As I am not a true expert on CAM Bias, it's not easy to Parce out the slop from the steak.

Once tonight is over with and the state of the surface shows up in Sunday mornings surface analysis as well as the Upper air, I think the models will get a finer handle on things.

If I were going to put myself anywhere tomorrow... I would probably sleep in Wichita tonight, and stage out of Kiowa or Ashland... right now.

for those in Colorado... you MAY even have some nice structure shots or a possible tail-end-charlie out there as well around Julesburg or perhaps Burlington.. @Hannah.Taylor @Mikayla Norris

 

[John Farley]

I am pre-positioned in Liberal, KS tonight, and looking at this evening's CAM runs, not thinking I will have to move as far east tomorrow as I previously thought. Maybe just two or three counties to start out? Dryline placement and storm initiation seem somewhat farther west than on earlier model runs. Also, I was concerned about whether storms would initiate despite favorable parameters, something I also saw mentioned in some local NWSFO discussions even this afternoon. But if tonight's CAM runs are to be believed, that probably won't be a problem - perhaps the opposite problem, too many storms too fast. But some models (e.g. HRRR) do still keep them more isolated. I know very little about the biases of different CAMS, but they do seem somewhat consistent on east-west placement of storms, though some variation on the number of storms north or south and how many storms.

 

[Jason N]

Early morning(06-11z) model consensus tells me that synoptically, mid-level height falls, and the nose of the mid-level Jet will definitely influence today's initiation across central KS where DL surge and warm frontal interactions take place, and surface low features are maximized.


Across KS today: (I won't be surprised to see SPC upgrade to a Level 4 today)

Based on some of the current analysis and some of the shortrange CAMS, I think it would be best served to stage out of Garden City , Ness City.

on the upside:
although earlier CAM runs were showing a congealing or clustering of upscale growth, that most recent runs (HRRR) in particular have spaced some of the cells into a little wider spacing making discrete potentially the more dominant mode. The FV3 has been more consistent on discrete mode
- Highest moisture nosing looks the best all the way up to Garden city, but forcing is going to be strong enough to compensate for diminishing moisture north of there.
- Chasers conga lines might be minimized given the number of potential cells to choose.

on the downside:
- Be ready for 50+ kt storm motions, (Thats model tracking distance from initiation IVO garden city/Spearville to Salina KS.) Thats going to make keeping up and driving a potential issue. so be choosy about your road choices and the cell you choose, one mistake and you may not be able to catch back up.
- there "could" be a rapid upgrowth cycle once the lid breaks..(several HRRR runs since yesterday have shown this) makes a case to possible stage a little further east to wait til they come to you. Kinsley, KS. could be a good location with storm motions aligning to the same orientation as Rt. 56.
-discriminating the best cell choices will be a last-minute choice once initiation occurs, with sub one-hour Meso-analysis, and radar.


Across Eastern CO:
the Surface low and thin moisture line from Burlington north could present some potential from Wray CO to McCook, Julesburg to North Platte, in that box. Generally the conditions synoptically should be about the same, surface moisture will be a little more limited, though the RAP suggests higher moisture fields than the HRRR does right now, so Meso-analysis will be worth watching. at minimum, there shuold be some good structure out there, and a potential spin up , perhaps a little further across the CO where potentially a little better moisture fields could be.

Storm motions will be on the order of 40-45kts so, again, be choosy and factor that in when staging to perhaps let it come to you.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The surface chart at 7am - oof. Easterlies down to the Red River. Need that to turn southerly soon. At least the first visible satellite loop shows the thick cloud deck isn't moving north. I'm wishcasting for the Goodland to McCook corridor as it will be farther west under better upper support, but it seems we'll be lucky to get 60F dews up there at this rate. The obvious play of the day is whatever can get going at the nose of the dewpoint plume (68-70F) in Kansas. CAMs are wavering on farther northwest. Will hold in Salina for a while.

 

[Jason N]

The surface chart at 7am - oof. Easterlies down to the Red River. Need that to turn southerly soon. At least the first visible satellite loop shows the thick cloud deck isn't moving north. I'm wishcasting for the Goodland to McCook corridor as it will be farther west under better upper support, but it seems we'll be lucky to get 60F dews up there at this rate. The obvious play of the day is whatever can get going at the nose of the dewpoint plume (68-70F) in Kansas. CAMs are wavering on farther northwest. Will hold in Salina for a while.

I think the development of the surface low around 18-19 is going to change that pretty quick despite the early morning not so good-looking conditions. the fact that there is already pretty strong 925 flow across TX to central OK. once some mixing occurs later this morning might fix the current look of the surface. (well, that's my hope anyway, lol)

 

[Brett Nickeson]

Not exactly what I wanted to see when I woke up this morning as far as surface features as Dan mentioned, though at least the eastern OK convection isn't as widespread as some models thought. Feels like the HRRR might be a bit over aggressive with it's moisture and WF placement. Still not really liking the overall look of today. CAMs seem to be a fan of convecting at or near the WF, and with the storm motion basically perpendicular to the orientation of the front, that will likely mean quick movement across the boundary into stable air and the storm becoming elevated. With that scenario there'd still be a chance for quick tornadoes...I'm thinking of that day a few years ago when everyone was at the dryline getting trolled in NW KS and two sups in SW NE along the warm front went crazy with a few tornadoes before crossing the front.

The northwest play is intriguing. Storms would probably be much more visible in clearer air, but a very narrow instability axis and much less low level shear.

Sure would be nice to get some convergence at the dryline. When was the last time that's happened north of the TX panhandle?

 

[Jeff House]

While the Moderate is the straight forward target, I still like the northwest target a lot today.

First the Moderate area is almost certain to go. Boundary is seen lifting north 9:00 am CDT on visible and surface chart. Theta E will surge in with plenty of time to spare. Upper levels are traditional SW flow with backed LLJ response. Should be crowded, but also could be multiple cyclical sups.

Northwest target still has 10% hatched. Chart below is Wind because I feel like it differentiates targets better. Anyone can check SPC for latest Tor probs. First note the minimum between targets it still discernable in the wind probs. Could be slightly lower deep level shear there in between the wind 15%s, but the low level shear is solid all the way from Colorado to Oklahoma.

Northwest area has the advantage of a clear TP target east of the low. Despite that single target, I would bet it's slightly less crowded than the Moderate risk. Upstairs 500 mb is nearly south, but the LLJ will be backed to nearly east - more than enough speed and directional shear. Keep in mind Theta-E requirements are lower up that way too. For a boundary intersection chaser the NW target feels like the layup.

Only other consideration is positioning for Monday. That might favor the Moderate. Though one can get east on I-70 early in the morning if they end up in Goodland tonight.

 

[Jason N]

Well the SPC did end up pushing to a level 4, kinda reflects what was on my brain from my earlier post. I think the surface conditions are already starting to shift a bit. so, I think my target areas are still good overall. There could be another area that I previously mentioned yesterday around Kiowa which several of the runs showed as a nexus point for a cellular development that had some localized backed flow, that could present as a target that moved due east, towards Wichita. The NW option is, per Jeff's post the interesting one in the sense that chaser coverage would probably be less overall, and most likely still present some great structure and spin up potential... being as the SPC has pushed the probs further up that way, and the overall dynamics despite slightly less moisture, higher LCL's which honestly makes a potentially better photogenic storm, could be another spot to look at.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I'll be playing the southern KS target today. Mid 60 dews this morning that should inch upward as the day progresses although with 70+ dews I'm always concerned about how HP storms will be, and that's backed a bit with HRRR projecting PWAT values at almost 2" this evening. Could be wedges today, but might have to soak it in quick cause it has a pretty good chance of being rain-wrapped after a short bit. Currently thinking the Alva/Kiowa/Anthony corridor will be a good starting point which would be good due to to road availability. Anything northwest of Alva and southwest of Medicine Lodge the road network gets pretty sparse and could make for some tough viewing.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Preliminarily targeting a corridor from Buffalo OK to Bucklin KS. A county on either side of the KS/OK border seems to have the best co-location of clockwise curved hodographs and instability / higher dewpoints. Best lift from the exit region of the 500mb jet may be further north. Similar latitude as Sean, but I like being further west given the moisture trajectory and dryline position. Will obviously adjust based on surface obs and cloud cover.

 

[Jason N]

the Surface is shaping up, albeit there;s a little more low level cloud cover still out there, but the corridor in SW KS is opening up. ConvT is about 82-83F today... good cap below that, but again once the height falls commence and the DL and SFC low eject, I think that CAP is gonna be overpowered. CAMS are in decent agreement as to the state of the moisture fields, there could be some truth about the distance the moisture travels further NW into CO. but mid 50s already, with upper 50s to perhaps low 60s on the way. the biggest wrinkle right now is the amount of low cloud in SRN KS, hopefully that will continue to scatter out and let some more insolation in. or it potentially could cut the corridor down in size and make anyone further east now, shift westward.



some early convection out there might make things interesting locally playing off boundaries IVO KS/OK border, just bear in mind it could wash out some of the dynamics as well... for ME, if I were out there, I would be in Dodge City to Ness city, Id wait it out, watch METSAT and SFC OBS.. I dont see a whole lot of chances for Bait out there today.. but if you're lucky you can catch a cell further east,, break off with a lateral move to the north and catch another NE moving Cell..

might post one more time in 2 hours. heck, surely an MCD should be out by then anyway lol..... then LETR,RIP!