2024-03-03 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/NE/MO/IA

Jan 14, 2011
St. Louis
The Euro and GFS are in good agreement on a significant negatively-tilted western trough ejecting out into the Great Plains on Sunday evening. The kinematics have all the hallmarks of a classic Plains tornado outbreak, with the left exit region of the diffluent jet overspreading a dryline by late afternoon.

Not surprisingly for this time of year, the moisture situation once again looks like the main limiting factor. The system moving across the US Tuesday and Wednesday will send a strong cold front into the Gulf, delaying the onset of moisture return into the Plains until 24 hours before Sunday's event. Only a narrow ribbon of moisture and resultant instability is shown along the dryline from north Texas into Kansas, with dewpoints struggling to reach 55F along the entire extent.

As currently shown, it looks like what would otherwise be a top-tier trough ejection outbreak could be severely stunted or even eliminated by paltry moisture.