2025-05-18 EVENT: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Jason N]

yeah... man, apologies to all that went out for this today... I would have been in the same position most likely.. that storm started off great to. something went out of balance. the models located and timed things correct. initiation was pretty close.. the cloud deck messed it up a little bit, but all in all, the HRRR over did the coverage for sure...

 

[Brett Nickeson]

I gotta admit, I am a little perplexed at the reason behind the Arnett storm fizzling out. was it terrain issues just disrupting inflow? .. I can hear the underperforming comments flowing from frustration. its still located in solid dynamics.. maybe something in the boundary layer and below? or something at 700.. destructive interference from the other cell? ....something choked it off and I am not seeing what.. down stream temps and dews still look good..

its odd, but there's a reason, I just cant see it yet. maybe the merger will help it before it gets dark.

Yeah, sorry, that was me. Got on it 5 minutes after the last tornado and it quickly died. Couldn't believe it given the fairly good parameters and how long every other storm was lasting.

 

[Derek Weston]

What an annoying day. Started around DDC. Didn't jump on the OK cell and thus didn't see much. My initial inclination is to say too much cool air at surface. Params generally looked really good. Storms wanted to rotate, saw some nice meso signatures on radar. Lowest levels didn't do it. (Didnt study OK situation)

 

[Jason N]

and now of course , Nocturnal spin ups heading towards Greensburg... hopefully not a repeat for them




and a debris ball

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I feel like I drove all over NW Oklahoma today but landed in Arnett just after the storm went severe and enjoyed the show from start to finish. Thought it might be a bigger day but it was done once it left the Arnett area. Think the cool air not clearing out until later in the day put a damper on the longevity of the action.

 

[Jason N]

I am concerned about Greensburg

 

[Jason N]

I feel like I drove all over NW Oklahoma today but landed in Arnett just after the storm went severe and enjoyed the show from start to finish. Thought it might be a bigger day but it was done once it left the Arnett area. Think the cool air not clearing out until later in the day put a damper on the longevity of the action.

I saw some live chaser video of it ... it looked really good for that first hour, glad you got out there

 

[Derek Weston]

I am concerned about Greensburg

View attachment 27438

Looks like it may have slipped just east, but dang close. Hope I'm right.

 

[Jason N]

Looks like it may have slipped just east, but dang close. Hope I'm right.

I think youre right.. .came super close to Haviland.. but I imagine there will be some damage in the area..

 

[Jeff Duda]

I suspect the mesoanalysis was somewhat liberal with the degree of destabilization in W OK. I suspect there was more CIN than depicted and that it began closing back up earlier than expected. The updraft of that storm looked to be shriveling up pretty early on.

Furthermore, a look at visible satellite confirms that there had to have been some residual stability pervading most of WC/SW OK. I've delineated the cloud streaks indicative of waviness due to stability throughout the area. If you look at the animation of these streets you'll note that around the time the northern fringe has definitely crept under the south edge of the anvil is when the radar presentation began deteriorating.


The bottom line is that SPC sfcOA is not gospel - it is generally pretty good, but it can be off at times, and the coarseness of it can make it unreliable on the edges of larger scale features such as land mass boundaries (case in point, the dryline area).

 

[John Farley]

Drove all over, waited too long to give up on my south-central KS target, and got to the Arnett storm too late, west of Vici. Something nobody has mentioned was the haze was terrible - you had to be pretty close to see much of anything at all, at least by the time I got to it. It, or one of the cells that split from it, did get some nice LP structure around sunset near Freedom, OK, but the haze was still an issue. Not sure why that storm died out so soon, but don't think it was just cool air. It was around 82 and very juicy the whole time I was on that storm, once I finally managed to get to it, way too late.

 

[Derek Weston]

The Greensburg cyclical supercell is still producing tornado emergencies at almost midnight. Just east of Sylvia KS currently. Could go on a while given the environment it has to work with.

 

[Jason N]

I suspect the mesoanalysis was somewhat liberal with the degree of destabilization in W OK. I suspect there was more CIN than depicted and that it began closing back up earlier than expected. The updraft of that storm looked to be shriveling up pretty early on.

Furthermore, a look at visible satellite confirms that there had to have been some residual stability pervading most of WC/SW OK. I've delineated the cloud streaks indicative of waviness due to stability throughout the area. If you look at the animation of these streets you'll note that around the time the northern fringe has definitely crept under the south edge of the anvil is when the radar presentation began deteriorating.

View attachment 27439
The bottom line is that SPC sfcOA is not gospel - it is generally pretty good, but it can be off at times, and the coarseness of it can make it unreliable on the edges of larger scale features such as land mass boundaries (case in point, the dryline area).

great information thanks Jeff. Especially about the cloud streets. One thing I am unaware of, is what the resolution on the RAP Meso-analysis is?

 

[Jeff Duda]

great information thanks Jeff. Especially about the cloud streets. One thing I am unaware of, is what the resolution on the RAP Meso-analysis is?

About 40 km

 

[JamesCaruso]

A day that will live in infamy like May 25 2024. So very disappointing, although somehow I never expected much - not out of any predictive skill mind you, just from cynicism over all the “alleged big days” that have turned to crap because the atmosphere and/or I under-performed.

I felt good about staying in Buffalo OK and not bailing to the south as many other chasers did. But we waited far too long to go after the two severe warned storms coming out of the TX PH, one of which became the Arnett tornadic supercell. I’ll save my (stupid) reasoning for a more detailed Reports post. Suffice to say we got down there after the last TOR report, could not even see the updraft base because of the haze, and had to settle for a hazy view of the constricting LP tower later on. We stayed with it until dark, placing hope in SPC’s MSD about potential for reintensification.

When I saw the confirmed tornado warning and velocity image up near Greensburg, I began slamming the steering wheel, shouting obscenities. After all that driving and frustration, wouldn’t you know it, just after dark…