2024-05-06 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/NE

[Sean Ramsey]

Most recent HRRR fires storms off in the west/nw quadrant of OK and after dark has them taking a southeastward turn with Tail End Charlie into the metro area after dark around 10-11pm. Gonna be a long day & night it appears at this point.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Just an important side note to the wonderful forecast discussions, today is likely going to be the most dangerous chase days in a long time. Storms should be moving at around 45mph, which is not real fast, but given the possibilities of multiple storm modes and rapidly evolving lines / broken lines, it's going to be a day where you better have a good navigator on board. The amount of buzz over the high risk rating is going to encourage a LOT of chasers and locals to hit the roads. This is not a day I would personally chase the high risk area, but likely further south.

And a quick note, no vehicle is "tornado proof." Ground effects are only good until debris (cow, telephone pole, etc.), disrupts the aerodynamic "vacuum" and the vehicle then becomes debris, e.g., like a Formula-1 car hit by another race car. I believe this misleading theory, designed for PR stunts, gives some people the idea they can survive in a heavy duty pick-up, SUV, etc.

 

[Blake Naftel]

Mid-morning thoughts from afar on a busy high-end day that I’ve intentionally avoided transporting myself literally into. Still have a focus zone of either side of I-40, now a tad north from what I noted 24 hours ago; west of OKC along/initially west of the US 183 corridor, Altus to Clinton, Oklahoma [I-40] for one or two tail-end dominant tornadic supercells by late afternoon. NAM and NAM 3k still allude to that scenario, while other CAMs trend further north [Seiling to Enid]. Winfield to ITC’s simulated soundings also raise the eyebrows!

A lot of construction is still likely ongoing along the turnpike around and south of ITC, experienced in full on the 4/27 chase day. All in all, today is trending for a primed environment for mass chaser/public road rash madness to ensue, and beyond the risk to area residents who will already be stressed from any severe weather/tornadoes, really hope not to read here about any serious altercations, accidents or worse involving anyone in hot pursuit of rotating air by tomorrow morning. As Ben mentioned, FM radio simulcasts are your friend on days like today. KFDI 101.3 FM in Wichita is excellent, while KFOR, KOCO and KWTV all go wall to wall on local OKC radio stations. All are far more dependable than phone radar data voids which can/do happen, certainly within limited or overtaxed cellular service zones. Be smart and safe!

 

[Mikayla Norris]

After looking at data this morning, and talking with my supervisor, I am primed to be able to leave Altus around 130pm, which should give me time to position prior to initiation. As mentioned above, the NAM and NAM 3K are both still alluding to storms firing down in my neck of the woods closer to Altus and moving NE, while the HRRR is showing initiation closer to I-40. Other CAMs are showing a similar mix, though with a slightly northern bias. The main question seems to be north vs. south rather than east vs. west, so my current plan will be to target close to Clinton, OK, with the thought being that I can utilize the US-183 corridor to adjust north or south as needed. I do however run the risk of US-183 being overrun by the hoards due to it being a major north-south highway, if that is the case I will push a tad east to the OK-54 corridor. Still a paved north-south highway, but maybe won't be as crowded. I'm really hoping for something to stay along or south of I-40 and along or west of I-44 though. That is my home chase territory, and I suspect deeper knowledge of local road networks could go a long way towards mitigating issues posed by potentially fast storm motions and chaser convergence today. Also, great suggestion by Ben on the radio simulcasts, I will be adding that to my chase mode procedures where available.

 

[Mike Smith]

There is a boundary showing up on the surface chart and satellite (shows up better when animated) from SW KS into central Oklahoma.
Watch this closely!!

 

[Dan Robinson]

Per visible satellite, We've still got some work to do to clear out and let the sun really get into the deeper moisture. Fog and drizzle was thick enough from Emporia westward that the roads were wet in some places. CAMs and others have covered the expected activity well, so I won't rehash. I'm holding in Wichita for a while and will likely drift west. I will be watching for signs of the leading open warm sector activity, but unless things can clear out soon, those may be less of a play.

 

[Jeff Smith]

There is a boundary showing up on the surface chart and satellite (shows up better when animated) from SW KS into central Oklahoma.
Watch this closely!!

Pseudo warm front developing?

 

[Jeff Duda]

From all of the models I've looked at, this event looks to me to be more likely to verify as a high risk for wind than for tornadoes. Things look more strongly forced in KS with discrete supercells looking less likely than a hybrid mode of a linear band with embedded supercells. In OK, the synoptic scale forcing looks to only brush by rather than impact the area fully, so getting widespread storm development seems less likely, although the mode would be cellular.

Various CAMs are scant on UH tracks across OK, although the most intense UH tracks are in OK. The AI-backed MMFS doesn't seem to buy into the tornado threat in general, though:



This product was up into the reds on last Friday's tornado outbreak in NE/IA.

Meanwhile, its depiction for wind is as follows:


The 1-km NSSL WRF does show a long-track storm over W/C OK this evening, with very high 0-1 km UH values suggestive of a long-track supercell producing tornadoes for a long time:

That would be a major event if it verifies, but that alone would not verify a high risk. May 31st 2013 was a moderate risk day and for good reason - the storm coverage was very low despite the huge intensity of those that developed. I remember conversing with SPC forecasters that day and they refused to go High risk due to the low coverage.

 

[Jason N]

I think the dynamics are certainly more than favorable for this event, but I think it's definitely warranted that given the tighter degree of geographic coverage, the Storm mode, timing of daily work traffic, it will definitely be a collapsed on the best cell environment, and with HP dominant cells, chaser safety certainly shouldn't be understated that this type of situation, reminds me of the high-risk day back in 2019 for the Mangum area led to some accidents in and out of town. So, people should be safe out there and on extra guard.

Especially given the semi recent rains, back dirt roads could get sloppy in some areas fast.

(weekly precip map OK )



Dynamically speaking, I don't see too much other than with the hodograph shape that and mid to upper 500over850 orthogonal setup and kinematics that really line up well with this situation. As a chaser though, and what I mentioned above, the biggest downside I see from a practical result of the setup is storm motions, they appear to be averaging close to 40kts. which is at my cut off for wanting to chase HP cells safely with advanced knowledge of road networks and escape routes. That for me tends to be a no go for chasing. unless its skipping down the tail end charlie line.

 

[Jason N]

From all of the models I've looked at, this event looks to me to be more likely to verify as a high risk for wind than for tornadoes. Things look more strongly forced in KS with discrete supercells looking less likely than a hybrid mode of a linear band with embedded supercells. In OK, the synoptic scale forcing looks to only brush by rather than impact the area fully, so getting widespread storm development seems less likely, although the mode would be cellular.

Various CAMs are scant on UH tracks across OK, although the most intense UH tracks are in OK. The AI-backed MMFS doesn't seem to buy into the tornado threat in general, though:
View attachment 25288
View attachment 25287

This product was up into the reds on last Friday's tornado outbreak in NE/IA.

Meanwhile, its depiction for wind is as follows:
View attachment 25289

The 1-km NSSL WRF does show a long-track storm over W/C OK this evening, with very high 0-1 km UH values suggestive of a long-track supercell producing tornadoes for a long time:
View attachment 25290
That would be a major event if it verifies, but that alone would not verify a high risk. May 31st 2013 was a moderate risk day and for good reason - the storm coverage was very low despite the huge intensity of those that developed. I remember conversing with SPC forecasters that day and they refused to go High risk due to the low coverage.

Jeff,

are they running todays WoF's models for this event?.. I saw they were used pretty recently, but they seem not to update them every day, just selectively.

 

[Jason N]

From all of the models I've looked at, this event looks to me to be more likely to verify as a high risk for wind than for tornadoes.

yeah I agree, seems like Wichita northward has good potential for LEWPS, and strong convective outflows , maybe even localized cold pool development

 

[Derek Weston]

Interesting day. I haven't done deep analysis like some of you have -- I'm not chasing -- but I'm still not overly impressed by most of the simulated hodos where turning-with-height tornado potential is concerned. (at least for a high end event)

The 500-850 cross-overs are meager. A lot of the 850s have slight westerly component. I'd like it a lot better if there were more easterly surface flow. I just haven't had good success on days like this in the plains where tornadoes are concerned.

At any rate, I'd play the tail end of the line and hope for a few isolated monsters south into OK. Maybe we'll get lucky and have a bunch of (chasable) embedded sups in KS for those who stick around up there.

OKC area sim hodo 0z

 

[Jeff Duda]

Jeff,

are they running todays WoF's models for this event?.. I saw they were pretty used pretty recent, but they seem not to update them everyday, just selectively.

Yes. The Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment is in Week 2 and WoFS runs every day during the week for the duration of the experiment (usually ends at the end of May or very beginning of June). For potent events WoFS will run on the weekends, too.

Forecast graphics site: Cb-WoFS - Home

 

[Bo Adams]

For anyone that does plan to chase Oklahoma tomorrow... please be aware the area has received plenty of rain over the last week. So if you don't have 4WD vehicle, try to avoid any dirt roads. Situational awareness will definitely need to be a focal point to any chase tomorrow.

Thanks for the heads up much appreciated

 

[Brian McKibben]

I just found an even more ridiculous cherry picked sounding near Tecumseh, OK for 03Z.

STP of 23.9 is flat out insane.

 

[Derek Weston]

I just found an even more ridiculous cherry picked sounding near Tecumseh, OK for 03Z.

STP of 23.9 is flat out insane.

You get lots of crazy readings at hours like this after the LLJ kicks in and helicity numbers go crazy. That's rarely realized, however.

 

[Brian McKibben]

While my "extreme risk" goes as far south as Edmond, take a look at the max divergence on the 300mb chart. The divergence over Wichita is (and I hate this word) "insane."

Nadocast has its 45% area with a large 30% region.

Yes... that upper level divergence is definitely insane. We should get some great venting today. I wonder if there will be any issues with storm in KS with Anvil seeding from that upper flow.

 

[Brian McKibben]

How does everyone feel about the nadocast?

I think it did a great job on 4/26 and 4/27. But I haven't been tracking it that long. How has it performed on other events?

Today's 14z

 

[Mike Smith]

Jeff, the link I have for WoFS doesn't seem to be working. Would you forward, please? Thank you.

 

[Jason N]

Jeff, the link I have for WoFS doesn't seem to be working. Would you forward, please? Thank you.

I am on the page now, it was loading "super slow" it might be caught in the middle of a run.. I dont know if its hot or cold runs , but based on what jeff said earlier with them having been using it, it should be hot runs, but when I looked at the page today, I only say a 17Z run, and it was pretty empty. so Maybe the 17Z was the first cold for today?

 

[Jason N]

Current VWP out of Vance.

 

[Mike Smith]

Jason, would forward the link? Thanks!

 

[Jason N]

https://cbwofs.nssl.noaa.gov/forecast?model=WOFSRun20240506-133839d1&product=t_2__ens_mean&sector=wofs

try that Mike

 

[Mike Smith]

Here's Wichita's. Pretty prime! TICT's is at least as bad.

 

[Jason N]

yeah that's starting to shape up in the first 3km