2025-05-18 EVENT: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Derek Weston]

Classic looking plains setup likely to unfold Sunday. Latest GFS/NAM paints a promising picture for tornadic supercells; in particular near the triple point in KS where EHI looks to be maximized later in the day. Questions remain on the exact placement of the warm-front with the NAM favoring southern KS and the GFS northern KS.

Shear displays good turning with height even if strength of said shear may be a bit meager overall. However, strong instability, perhaps on the order of > 3000 J/KG across portions of KS and OK, should help make up for this. Biggest issue would be capping due to the bulk of the upper energy yet to swing into the region. Early returns on models like NAMNST seem promising, though.

Strong tornadoes in the 0z timeframe look like a distinct possibility if ingredients come together as they have a chance to.

My first plains chase of 2025.

 

[Andrew Fryhover]

Welcome back to the Plains! I'm currently leaning toward targeting Woodward, OK up into Kansas. The 70s dewpoints, and super high cape = evening May tornadoes in OK and Kansas. What more could I ask for. Hoping to get a structure shot with tor underneath. Slow chase season for me so far. I tend to stay close to home here in Oklahoma. I did drive to Arkansas for that event that produced big tornadoes near Texarkana. My only tornado so far this year was the Night time Tor near Miami, Texas.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

This might be my inclination to be pessimistic talking, but Sunday is feeling like a high chance of a bust. Later arriving energy, minimal height falls, narrow warm sector, clouds appear to be pervasive near the dryline... Seems like I've chased dozens of these and, despite the incredible parameters and massive EHI numbers, they rarely pan out. Sincerely hope I'm wrong on this one, and I'll be out there just like everyone else.

 

[Derek Weston]

This might be my inclination to be pessimistic talking, but Sunday is feeling like a high chance of a bust. Later arriving energy, minimal height falls, narrow warm sector, clouds appear to be pervasive near the dryline... Seems like I've chased dozens of these and, despite the incredible parameters and massive EHI numbers, they rarely pan out. Sincerely hope I'm wrong on this one, and I'll be out there just like everyone else.

Yeah, the fabled "day before the day" that often enough doesn't turn out. (or ends up producing your some of your best stuff)

Latest NAM is ejecting a nice bit of energy into Western KS now. Sunday has been trending up, I think. (could just be overly excited to get back to Kansas for a chase though, haha)