2025-05-18 EVENT: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Jeff House]

Greensburg appreciates your thoughts, prayers, and steering wheel slamming. Glad it missed!

If it makes you feel any better, I didn't see a lot of tornadoes on severe studios. My guess is many chasers believed in the Rozel anniversary. At least during the day, the atmosphere did not!

Southwest Kansas stayed just a bit less unstable than points north and south. We all know an early cluster of storms developed, departed, and left overcast. Winds were backed nicely, but almost too much of a good thing - advecting in that cooler air. While the Rozel day rewarded patience, and folks who dropped south busted, this year was quite the opposite. Arnett rewarded the drop south. Patience in Kansas was NOT a virtue.

Also like the Rozel day, northwest Kansas had tornadoes including a bowl/wedge. I remember that day, getting antsy as the northwest target went first. We waited and waited for Rozel. Southwest Kansas just wasn't in the cards on Sunday. Many others busted.

 

[Dan Robinson]

One thing about the stable layer I observed along I-70 is that it was very shallow. Once the fog cleared out, you could see it was all just right off of the deck. I was shocked the storm produced the tornado at Grinnell until some breaks began appearing just east of it, there you could see how thin the low clouds and fog were. I'm not sure how far into that environment the Greensburg storm traveled, but it seemed as if it had to have been into it at least slightly.

 

[Jason N]

I think with the stability issues probably more widely present than realized, compared to HRRR's presentations run after run, my guess it was like, analysis paralysis, where, you see the cell fire.. I'm in a good spot, more should start popping up soon.... they don't in proximity to an easy intercept.... time continues... then it's the realization that, time is now a factor, make your move... then the reality set in that it was going to underperform and by then it was kind of too late.. even though models did indicate nocturnal development, I think that kind of chasing is really less worth it for me and Ive tried it a few times, when you're alone, the extra amount of risk management isn't worth the squeeze.


Because my focus was more in SW KS, I "may" have gone north towards Colby. but I wasn't .. so, I can't really Monday morning it from a chair in SC. lol .. all things are learning experiences, and Jeff granted me 2 things.. I was generally under the impression that cloud streets aren't a determining factor in TS development/stability factors, as I have seen plenty of times where Cu fields IVO DL's fields pop hard... so to know that they may also indicate less stability, is interesting. I also didn't know about the 40km Meso-analysis and I am wondering why they don't drop that to something like 12km? perhaps the returns wouldn't be worth it, or the cost would be Vast.

Either way, this was great to watch for both the good and bad reasons.. all lessons learned.
the Youtube videos of the Greensburg/Haviland cell, man that appeared to be a real beast.