State of the Chase Season 2023

[Jason N]

The CFS has been flip-flopping a lot...which I suppose is to be expected at ultra-long range, but some consistency would be nice as it sure doesn't help with trying to book a time off period beyond Day 10.

For some reason the 06Z runs (like the one currently up on the CoD site as I make this post, which looks pretty good for the first full week of June) often seem to show a more severe-conducive pattern that tends to disappear on either the following 12Z or 18Z runs.

Yeah Andy, I don't disagree with you there, the biggest thing I noticed and the only thing I really focused on up to the this point was seeing the CFS run to run consistency on the June 8-15 becoming more favorable. That trend hasnt seemed to have diminished or change in over 6.. maybe 8 successive runs.. and the GFS does, at the far end of its current run show "some" similarities with CFS around the 7th and 8th so, still a crap shoot of course, but for me at least when I see continued consistency, that gives me some element of increased confidence. By this time next week. if it's showing something similar and hasn't broken down, I think that will be something to really watch.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Forgot to mention when I posted, I wonder if some of the variability might have to do with how it handles Typhoon Mawar's track and eventual recurvature into the westerlies from run to run, as I mentioned in here the other day.

 

[Jason N]

Yeah, that's a solid point. Did you mention the Rossby Waves as well? any indications of those at all?

 

[Jason N]

I'm honestly not familiar with tropical systems and Rossby wave formation/generation, if that's even a thing. Tropical is my weaker area when it comes to that.. I just assume they were along for the ride when it came to the trough/ridge interactions. But that's probably a topic for a different room lol.

 

[Bobby Little]

That could still disappear, though... Even if it verifies, it's small consolation to those who played the climatological odds and locked in their chase vacations during the more traditional peak... And particularly frustrating to me, after finally having the chance to spend more than two weeks out here, to see a dead pattern from May 22 all the way until June 15, when I really do have to finally get home...

Knowing your out chasing on vacation..i am glad to see an enhanced chasing day for you today.
good luck!!

 

[Bobby Little]

looks like the same pattern of weak surface boundaries accompanied with weak upper level flow continues to sink anything good. Tues maybe some return moisture could surprise?

 

[JamesCaruso]

I know it's still in fantasy land, but GFS 12z just moved things around and brings flow to the plains around the second week of june. I was about to fly-in for the next couple of days and try my luck with the mesoscale low-chance setups as it looked like our only chance, but if it becomes a trend, it might as well convince me to be a little bit more patient.

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Trying not to torture myself with long range analysis so I can’t comment intelligently, but I did not that SPC goes to Potential Too Low and talks about things pretty much shutting down around Day 6, so either the GFS already flipped and/or they are discounting it in favor of others…

 

[JamesCaruso]

Knowing your out chasing on vacation..i am glad to see an enhanced chasing day for you today.
good luck!!

Thanks Bobby, that’s very nice of you! Yes we did have a good day yesterday, targeted Logan NM and were on the very first cell that ultimately became that huge HP beast. It was an exciting day, although despite being right near the couplet between Quay and Broadview we somehow managed to NOT see the tornado, and then bailed south on 209 toward Clovis with what seemed like the entire chase community, the circulation on our tail the whole time. I’ll post a chase report when I have some time.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Trying not to torture myself with long range analysis so I can’t comment intelligently, but I did not that SPC goes to Potential Too Low and talks about things pretty much shutting down around Day 6, so either the GFS already flipped and/or they are discounting it in favor of others…

Second week of June is well beyond SPC's Day 4-8 range at this point.

Speaking of which, reposting this link from the Discord. Andrew Pritchard is an old-timer by now and I believe used to be a member here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661416291737956353

 

[Jeff House]

Andrew Pritchard writes a good thread there. Whether the CFS verifies or not, it's great pattern recognition. Below normal heights is preferred.

The Rockies trough East ridge desired in May is not required in June; and, sometimes it is not so beneficial. In June we don't want a big cap dragged in from the Southwest or AN heights encroaching the Plains from an East ridge backing into the Mid-South.

Below normal heights in the target area is a solid signal in June, when one looks at past years. CFS and ECMWF weeklies both trend to BN heights in the Plains and Midwest a week or two into June. Canada height anomalies coming down helps too. Gulf stays open in June with passing troughs.

Could use some help from the MJO. Jim Bishop also tweeted a thread on the need for Indian Ocean convection to regenerate following the West Pac typhoon. No forecast 3-4 weeks out is too accurate, but it's what to look for as we move into June.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Second week of June is well beyond SPC's Day 4-8 range at this point.

Speaking of which, reposting this link from the Discord. Andrew Pritchard is an old-timer by now and I believe used to be a member here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661416291737956353

Thanks Andy and sorry @Marc Remillard , for some reason I thought June 7 was next week… Hope we don’t have to wait quite that long, I’m pushing it with work every day I stay past June 2!

 

[Marc Remillard]

Thanks Andy and sorry @Marc Remillard , for some reason I thought June 7 was next week… Hope we don’t have to wait quite that long, I’m pushing it with work every day I stay past June 2!

No problem!

Yeah here too, work is basically booking everything twice so they have a backup in case I leave. Pretty sure they can't wait for me to book it so they don't have to do that anymore lol

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

Been looking at the CFS and it’s looking really good for those of us with late June northern plains vacations.

 

[Jason N]

It's looking a little more and more like the CFS to GFS evolution from 7/8 June and beyond is continuing in the broad sense, so I think a good target period to watch might be the 6 to 14 June timeframe. I will give it another 3-4 days to see how the run to run changes are from 00 and 12Z, because I know the models like to spike sometimes on stability and other parameters. Not to mention it's still way out in time.

 

[Bobby Little]

looks like the same pattern of weak surface boundaries accompanied with weak upper level flow continues to sink anything good. Tues maybe some return moisture could surprise?

nix on this. it looks like a low off texas is going to appear 30-31st..stopping that moisture return