State of the Chase Season 2023

[Warren Faidley]

Really crazy to see that ridge set up over Mexico and continue to pump out shear on a daily basis, although it's not a perfect set-up. I've been watching lenticular and cirrus clouds here in Tucson that you never see in mid-June. I suspect this freak pattern is an anomaly between Niña/Niño events and not a big change in the overall climate picture. It will be interesting to see what the current pattern morphs into next week when the MexRidge breaks down. Some models suggest another interesting period in the Plains early next week.

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

Looking at the early 0z suite tonight and it continues the parade of severe weather in the southern plains. The NAM has an especially juicy setup on Tuesday with CAPE near 5000, 500mb winds of 40-50 kt, and dews in the 70s near the KS/OK border. And the GFS and Canadian keep persistent flow from the W to SW all week long. What month is it again?

 

[JamesCaruso]

After a relatively dormant season through all of May and the first half ofJune, and being unable to capitalize on a personal window of opportunity that was my longest in 27 years and went all the way through June 14, seeing the activity over the past week or so can only be described as an atmospheric kick in the groin.

Why do I torture myself by even continuing to look at this stuff???

 

[John Farley]

I would not torture yourself too much, James. I think there were only a handful of chasers on each of the big tornadoes in the past week or so that you have seen lots of pictures of (Perryton, Matador, Akron). Those were days with lots of possibilities in many areas, and chasers were pretty spread out. Some smart and probably lucky ones are always in the right place, most are somewhere else. I was out a couple days last week and, just as I did in May when you were out, saw photogenic supercells but no tornadoes. On the high plains of CO and NM, the Panhandles, and west Texas, it has actually been a pretty good year for supercells and hail, but tornadoes have been quite limited. Of course there are more chances the next few days.

 

[Jason N]

James, I concur. All the back and forth talk and decision to not go from 10-18, 19,20 June... ended up being Donkey Punch
(it's times like these I am reminded, all the educated/experienced heads in here CAN lead to analysis paralysis lol.)

At the end of the day though, I'm ok with it, it's a learning tool in different weather pattern environments to sometimes Nix the long range for sake of the Mesoscale as that may be what it comes to. This year was the first year I cancelled on indecision lol.

(HOW TO CHASE in a chaotic pattern): Notes to self for next year.
1. Look at GFS only below 216hrs
2. Look for a min of 96hrs of successive 00/12Z runs of good agreement on "general flow" alone.
3. 216 - 96hrs = 120hrs is the make or break fly or not day for your 7-10day window.
4. Travel to your spot.... T minus 48hrs prior to your anticipated window.
5. Watch the CAMS and SPC show! either it rapidly develops? OR, you get busted and eat steak/seafood.

 

[Jason N]

I would not torture yourself too much, James. I think there were only a handful of chasers on each of the big tornadoes in the past week or so that you have seen lots of pictures of (Perryton, Matador, Akron). Those were days with lots of possibilities in many areas, and chasers were pretty spread out. Some smart and probably lucky ones are always in the right place, most are somewhere else. I was out a couple days last week and, just as I did in May when you were out, saw photogenic supercells but no tornadoes. On the high plains of CO and NM, the Panhandles, and west Texas, it has actually been a pretty good year for supercells and hail, but tornadoes have been quite limited. Of course there are more chances the next few days.

I watched the footage from the Matador, it looked pretty messy anyway, Big HP that peaked its head out a few times but, overall, despite the intensity of the storm, the visual quality appeared to be fairly poor.

 

[Jason N]

@adlyons . I was wondering if the spike in June would make up for the deficit in May at all?

 

[Warren Faidley]

It's easy to beat yourself up at the end of the tornado chase season, especially in the days of social media where every event you miss is plastered on social media to drive you crazy. I accepted a long time ago that there are hundreds of chasers and public observers out there and only one me, so I could never be in multiple places at once, although quantum physics may change that in the future!

This has been one of the most bizarre seasons I have ever seen. Lots of straight line hodos, little capping, cold, dense modified outflows and lack of sufficient turning in the lower levels hid many tubes in rain shafts or left ground-hugging wall clouds in limbo. I don't recall another chase season were I witnessed so many wall clouds, many rotating, producing zilch. I was on the right storm about 75% of the time in May, in the perfect position, but only saw a few "possible spin-ups." This disgusting set-up is finally coming to an end as the regular summer pattern settles in. Hello monsoon.

The hurricane season could be quite active, with above average water temperatures in the Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean. If El Niño flow does not shear the storms out, I'm going to be very busy with tropical fun.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Looks like today has been another productive chase day for those still able to be out on the western Plains. I'm looking forward to getting out again tomorrow in Iowa.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Looks like today has been another productive chase day for those still able to be out on the western Plains. I'm looking forward to getting out again tomorrow in Iowa.

To paraphrase my post above, I would call it another kick in the balls

 

[Tony Laubach]

I gotta say, the high plains have come to life in a manner that we haven't seen in years. Especially the last week and change, seems like every storm is spinning out tubes (I'll even give a shout out to northern MN on Saturday). A lot of us Colorado residents have been disgusted with the incredible amount of rain/moisture available out this way, and all May, we couldn't get the dynamics to go with it. Felt like it was all going to waste til the last week or so, and BOOM. I've had the best June of my career on three back-to-back days. That moisture was finally getting put to use (we had 70s dewpoints up here on the Akron day, which is unheard of for eastern CO).

Not so sure this doesn't continue to some extent... we do pretty well in northwest flow here, so we can get lucky under either pattern, even if we go ridging. Summer has set in, I've finally turned on the sprinklers and A/C. But hoping we'll squander out a few days between now and September.

Warren, I hope you're wrong about the Tropics. LOL I'd rather play inland

 

[Jeff Wright]

This has been one of the most bizarre seasons I have ever seen. Lots of straight line hodos, little capping, cold, dense modified outflows and lack of sufficient turning in the lower levels hid many tubes in rain shafts...

They may not hide for much longer.

The faith I had in passive milimetric wave cameras is replaced by this find:

Neural wavefront shaping camera overcomes light scattering problem in optical imaging

Engineers from Rice University and the University of Maryland have created full-motion video technology that could potentially be used to make cameras that peer through fog, smoke, driving rain, murky water, skin, bone and other media that reflect scattered light and obscure objects from view.

phys.org

"Imaging through scattering media is the 'holy grail problem' in optical imaging at this point," said Rice's Ashok Veeraraghavan, co-corresponding author of an open-access study published today in Science Advances. "Scattering is what makes light—which has lower wavelength, and therefore gives much better spatial resolution—unusable in many, many scenarios. If you can undo the effects of scattering, then imaging just goes so much further."

 

[Jeff Duda]

They may not hide for much longer.

The faith I had in passive milimetric wave cameras is replaced by this find:

Neural wavefront shaping camera overcomes light scattering problem in optical imaging

Engineers from Rice University and the University of Maryland have created full-motion video technology that could potentially be used to make cameras that peer through fog, smoke, driving rain, murky water, skin, bone and other media that reflect scattered light and obscure objects from view.

phys.org

"Imaging through scattering media is the 'holy grail problem' in optical imaging at this point," said Rice's Ashok Veeraraghavan, co-corresponding author of an open-access study published today in Science Advances. "Scattering is what makes light—which has lower wavelength, and therefore gives much better spatial resolution—unusable in many, many scenarios. If you can undo the effects of scattering, then imaging just goes so much further."

What does this post have to do with the chase season discussion?

 

[JamesCaruso]

The last week of July, my wife is taking the kids to visit her parents. With no family responsibilities, and the ability to work remotely, I am thinking of heading out to the northern Plains IF it looks like there could be a few chase days. I have actually never chased in, or been to, ND or Montana, and would love the chance to do so (I normally hate even going as far north as SD, but that’s only because I usually have to get there from the southern Plains on a chase vacation). My understanding is that July in general immediately follows April, May and June in tornado frequency. Any thoughts on how the fourth week of July, in particular, might look? I assume it tails off toward the end of the month, regardless of what the stats say about the month as a whole… Any thoughts on how things might look for that week in this particular year, based on what we have seen so far?

 

[Todd Lemery]

I’ve chased up there a fair amount. The terrain is generally pretty good and even the side roads are decent in the rain. The two negatives I see for July chasing is the difficulty of putting together two good days of chasing in a row and the corn getting taller as the season wears on.
You generally don’t have more than one day in a given area as the systems move through. Weeks like we’ve had fairly recently in the Texas panhandle, New Mexico and Eastern Colorado generally don’t happen farther North. You have to choose your chase times a bit more judiciously.
As far as the corn, it’s not a big deal, but the darn corn can grow pretty tall some years and I hate it when it gets to just the right height to prevent you from seeing any bases any further away than a half mile.
I myself like the chasing in Nebraska and the Dakotas, but won’t be doing it for a little while yet because I broke my leg pretty badly a while ago and am just turning the corner now.
Just do it though because it’s a long way until May 2024

 

[Jason N]

@JamesCaruso : I've chased up there a few times myself but never in late July, so I can't speak to the corn height, but I noticed it some in Late May and Mid June before. That being said the road network up there is mixed with terrain, and especially say from Bowman up to Williston and along the ND/MT border north of 94 up towards the Canadian border. There are a few spots that I liked the most north of the Missouri River along Rt. 2 which is a good west-east run to some north south turn offs. I personally think the road network and terrain south of Rt2 makes it a little more problematic in some spots but not terrible. South of the missouri to Rt 12 is where those terrain and road issues are the most "meh". but the region as a whole is beautiful and its where I tend to look for LP late in the season as stuff heads east towards Minot. Hopefully the pattern will cooperate if you make it up there.

 

[JamesCaruso]

With no ability to even think about chasing until perhaps the last week of July, I have not been inclined to spend time looking at models. But I did look at SPC today and noticed areas outlooked for Days 3, 4 and 5, as well as a potentially-favorable mention of Day 6 in the text. Not all that common to see an area delineated for Day 4, let alone Day 5.

Can‘t believe the lateness of this season… I have never scheduled a chase vacation that went beyond June 10 or so. Most years, if my chase vacation was inactive, it was usually the case that my trip began AFTER some good early/mid May events that I missed… Yeah maybe there would be one big June event that happened after I came home from my trip, like a Pilger… But I don’t ever recall a season that barely even started until mid-June, and was still going this late.

Regardless, with my chasing luck, there’s no chance it will still be active for the last week of July, when I may have the ability to head back out for a week…

 

[Bobby Little]

Regardless, with my chasing luck, there’s no chance it will still be active for the last week of July, when I may have the ability to head back out for a week…

You are absolutely right James..Wait you are talking about ME right?

 

[Ryan Schwartz]

I respect the chasers that have to balance a job and family life on top of storms and can't just chase every setup willy-nilly like the "career chasers".

 

[JamesCaruso]

I respect the chasers that have to balance a job and family life on top of storms and can't just chase every setup willy-nilly like the "career chasers".

Really appreciate you saying that Ryan! Despite chasing for 25+ years, I sometimes feel like a second-class citizen compared to the “career chasers.” I simply don’t have as many successes to my credit, being limited to a max of two weeks chasing per year, and subject to the randomness of whether that two weeks is active/inactive, and missing some of the bigger, more famous events that occur just before or just after a chase vacation. Chase-day mistakes, which we all make, sting that much more when you have to wait a whole year to redeem yourself. As does a weird season like 2023, that was generally subpar during peak time, and became active only after us chase vacationers all went home, while the Plains chasers are still out there, able to snag that one-off at odd times of year. Chase vacationers also have to make much bigger decisions - it’s not just “Is it worth chasing today,” it’s “Is it worth heading out to the Plains this *week*“. I know you’re not talking just about chase vacationers - most Plains chasers also have to balance jobs and families - but I deal with that AND being far from the Plains, so am the furthest from a “career chaser” one can be, despite a very lengthy run so far - so your sentiment is much appreciated!

 

[Jeff House]

FIrst of all, @JamesCaruso you should go North that week. While consecutive days are hard to come by, this is the season for the Northern Plains. When a jet stream remains, vs death ridge, the Northern Plains can be rewarding the entire summer. Bring a passport in case it's Canada. I guess reason for visit is tourism.

Second, my down weeks have come and gone. I actually had a couple in June, one of which lined up with action. I just didn't believe flow would verify. So many years I've seen June flow progged in the 7-10 days bust, or just be Pac NW flow. This year Retro Climo reigns. Agree with @Warren Faidley that it's temporary. We'll leave sticky Climate Change for other threads. For now, just enjoy it!

Third, my perception is this season was actually pretty good - for those with time and flexibility to be in the Plains every week. Chasers with family simply can't do that and that's life. I just give thanks for my single years in the Plains. Regrettably I missed a lot on shift. Whie it is easy to think others have this easy chasing life, I've been really lucky with what I got.

I was off work (and miraculously not on-call) for May 12, 2004 the Harper-Attica show. We caught every tornado of the 3-4 cycles, except maybe the first rope. We saw all the stove pipes, elephant trunks, and columns. May 24, 2008 (the first of 3 great 5/24s) we saw the Kingfisher County, OK show - again all of it except the first elephant trunk. That day was particularly lucky, and cemented my preference for outflow boundaries. WF busted. So we missed Quinter, but we got our show 1-2 days later.

Travel chase era: In 2013 we got everything at Rozel, from the gradual hardening of the mid-levels to the main tornado, the double tornado on cycle 2, and the finesse rope-out. In 2016 we got every cycle of Dodge City. That's the third great May 24, the second being a single cycle in 2010. We blew Chapman, but it does not hurt after getting DDC. About every 4-5 years we get a great show. That trend broke with family, but family brings other wonderful rewards.

So the State of the Season is rocking, if one has time and flexibility. Otherwise, I'm thankful for the big opportunities before. At risk of getting off-topic, I think my post if valid for the mental state of the chase season if one has missed the action. This year has lacked synoptically evident events days out, but patterns have showed up. One just had to believe the flow would verify. Still more chances coming up!

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I just wanted to chime in and comment about how the season just doesn't want to end. Were are still getting supercells and tornadoes on the high plains with a continuation of nw flow over the plains into the Midwest. This summer has had mid-90's vibes with a seemingly endless season of severe in the plains. I wish I could chase more further west, but work/family obligations have me pretty busy. Curious to see how the fall pans out.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I just wanted to chime in and comment about how the season just doesn't want to end. Were are still getting supercells and tornadoes on the high plains with a continuation of nw flow over the plains into the Midwest. This summer has had mid-90's vibes with a seemingly endless season of severe in the plains. I wish I could chase more further west, but work/family obligations have me pretty busy. Curious to see how the fall pans out.

I was thinking the same thing as I saw today’s risk out west (ignoring the risk in my own area of southeastern PA today, which rarely deserves much attention or effort…) I am probably squandering the opportunity I have to work remotely for the first time - I could theoretically be out there, but it doesn’t quite seem worth the effort. Between work travel and a couple separate family vacations, I only have a couple of weeks that I don’t have to go anywhere, and I find myself preferring to stay home when I can, rather than hit the road again… And I have too much work to do and probably shouldn’t be using time to chase even if I was working from out west..

 

[Jason N]

it will be interesting to see how this year (as a whole) will pan out with the summer being this active in terms of total numbers. its definitely been what "feels" like a higher than normal mid summer.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

It's wild to see the western plains continue to churn out incredible chases several times a week all the way into August. If you live out there or have unlimited freedom to chase, this year has probably been the best of your career. If you're like me and largely limited to chases within 5-6 hours of you and live in eastern NE or eastern KS, it's been one of the most frustrating years of your career. This area has been a dead zone going on a decade now. We finally got the incredibly active season we've all been dreaming of, and it's confined to one geographic area at an unconventional time of year lol.