State of the Chase Season 2023

[Jason N]

Real-time 3km Land Information System over CONUS

Thanks Warren, boy what a difference in only the last few weeks to a month.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Looks like we are getting into what I like to call mesoscale season where synoptically evident events are rare but one can find decent day-to-day chase opportunities, some of which featuring high reward storms.

Those mesoscale days can be just as good as the synoptically-evident ones for chasing. In fact, synoptically-evident days sometimes present disadvantages - large potential areas that lack a clear focus; storms going up all over the place, making storm selection potentially more difficult and leading to storm interference; strong jet dynamics leading to fast-moving storms, etc. My Top 3 days were all mesoscale days - Campo 2010, Dodge City 2016 and Selden 2021.

You can only chase one storm at a time anyway, so one good supercell is enough to make a great day!

 

[JamesCaruso]

When the SPC day 4-8 outlook says “potential too low” for the entire time period, that’s not a good sign.

Looking at the 500mb pattern I think we’ll have a bunch of marginal risk days this weekend into early next week. Maybe a slight or two. Moisture looks to be good enough but the flow is just too weak for any large-scale events.

Keep in mind that the threshold probability for showing a risk area Day 4-8 is higher than for Day 1-3. So theoretically there could be a non-zero probability during Day 4-8 that doesn’t appear, but would warrant a Marginal or Slight by the time it’s Day 1 or 2.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Despite my two optimistic posts above, I am beginning to get a little discouraged. I have actually been trying not to look at anything (other than the ST chatter) until closer to my departure date this coming Monday the 22nd. But I just looked at the CFS dashboard, and it’s not pretty. First of all, that big, deep blue hole in peak season is absolutely ridiculous. I’ll even set that aside, because it only overlaps with my trip by a day or two. But here I am with my first opportunity in 27 years to be out on the Plains for more than two weeks - not all vacation, but working remotely so at least can potentially keep chasing until June 15 - and even THAT is not enough, with the dashboard featuring another series of blue squares during the last 4-5 days of my trip. As if that wasn’t bad enough, to add insult to injury, it finally shows some oranges and reds at the end of June!!??!!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

@JamesCaruso, aren't the CFS dashboard/chiclets subject to the same general run-to-run variability that the operational model itself is, though? For example, the previous three runs after 6/26 came into Day-45 range, had considerably lighter colors. The most recent run on the graphic you posted (yesterday's 00Z; today - 5/17's - 00Z is the most recent run currently available on the COD site) was the first one to show orange for that day.

I wouldn't worry too much about it, although it would be nice if there was a stronger signal for more good days, that trough around Memorial Day weekend does seem to be appearing on more runs than not.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Aggro chasers: "When it's May, you chase"

Atmosphere:



If you want that to be true, then grab your passport, or get down on your knees and pray.

The neat thing about the 500-mb analysis is that the temperatures are still pretty cool (generally < -10 C everywhere), so lapse rates aren't necessarily impacted. It's not so much a summer pattern, just a total lack of synoptic scale flow.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

just a total lack of synoptic scale flow.

This is what has me analyzing road network and tree density in Montana/Idaho for maybe the first 2-3 days I can get out there before a trough/low/short wave finally nudges some snippet of H5 flow back where it's needed. I've had beautiful chases and tornadoes on synoptically non-evident days. But seems like those days were constrained more by capping/forcing rather than general lack of upper level support/shear.

 

[JamesCaruso]

This is what has me analyzing road network and tree density in Montana/Idaho for maybe the first 2-3 days I can get out there before a trough/low/short wave finally nudges some snippet of H5 flow back where it's needed. I've had beautiful chases and tornadoes on synoptically non-evident days. But seems like those days were constrained more by capping/forcing rather than general lack of upper level support/shear.

As much as I love chasing, I am just not hardcore enough to go way the hell up there, unless I’m staying on the northern plains the entire trip and don’t have to come back down to the southern or central Plains…

 

[JamesCaruso]

I really just can’t believe this. I know it’s all fantasy in some ways, but imagine being about to start a chase vacation of the longest length you’ve ever been able to schedule (3.5 weeks) and seeing this. What’s even worse than the colors during my trip is that it finally trends better right when I come home on the 15th!?! You’ve got to be kidding me…

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Hey James, I’m not sure it’s all that bad. May 12 didn’t look so good on the CFS for many days, and we all know what happened then. Also I’m seeing the operational GFS and ECMWF trending towards better SW flow around month’s end. Keep your fingers crossed for a little better moisture and you’ll be in business.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I posted about this in the Discord earlier, but the presence of Tropical Storm/soon to be Typhoon Mawar in the WPAC is a wild card. Typhoons are known to help induce Rossby waves that can lead to western U.S. troughing as they recurve into the westerlies.

Whether Mawar actually does this in such a fashion as to improve chase prospects is impossible to know at this point; and we probably won't see it reflected in operational model solutions until it actually begins to recurve.

It never used to occur to me to look in the tropics of the southwest Pacific for factors that may lead to active severe weather patterns in the central CONUS; I once thought western troughs and tornado outbreak sequences were just supposed to happen because it was May, and quiet ones like 2006 were the exception. LOL.

 

[Jason N]

when I was younger, late teens, I used to hear about butterfly wings causing hurricanes. In a lose interpretation of that tale, and in its own way, it happens! one storms ripple effect has that indirect effect 7,000 miles away. you gotta love the connections, well and dislike them at times when cancels trips!!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looking like the severe weather pattern will soon shift to my favorite style of chasing..... surface based forecasting, low risk / high reward or total bust with steaks and bourbon. All of this occurring in western regions with great road networks. Most of these set-ups are not obvious until late in the day, which will likely result in fewer chasers in the target areas. I don't want to jinx this set-up, but it would appear the flow gets even better as we move forward towards late May and early June.

 

[Jason N]

Looking like the severe weather pattern will soon shift to my favorite style of chasing..... surface based forecasting, low risk / high reward or total bust with steaks and bourbon. All of this occurring in western regions with great road networks. Most of these set-ups are not obvious until late in the day, which will likely result in fewer chasers in the target areas. I don't want to jinx this set-up, but it would appear the flow gets even better as we move forward towards late May and early June.

I have been seeing that similar pattern emerging from the 26th onward to the 29th. the 500 may kick out some segments of energy that will make whatever else is happening at the Sfc the real interesting player and like you said, not obvious, but really fun to explore , analyze, get lucky and feel rewarded or don't and have steaks anyway at the end of the day! which means it's either a storm trip, or a Motorcycle run to Nova scotia with my time off!... So, it's a win-win for me either way!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Tomorrow (5-22) upgraded to slight in the TX panhandle, with all hazards possible. I believe this will be the case for most of next week, unless there is too much action and mass stabilization occurs. Let the games begin.