State of the Chase Season 2021

[Jason N]

well I have seen years that are a lot worse than this, but you got to love "The Hoard"

 

[Bobby Little]

well I have seen years that are a lot worse than this, but you got to love "The Hoard"
View attachment 21692

geez..so how many?
(like marbles in a jar )

 

[Jason N]

I counted over 50 .. but that's only who is reporting , usually there are a lot that don't report who tag along in the group to. , but I've seen more than 100 before to and that is considered a NO GO area for me lol

 

[Bobby Little]

I counted over 50 .. but that's only who is reporting , usually there are a lot that don't report who tag along in the group to. , but I've seen more than 100 before to and that is considered a NO GO area for me lol

well i figure 3x more than what you see ..so 175... heading out noon tues..not liking a holiday weekend but might get a chase day in each day till sun from what i see

 

[Jeff Duda]

Staff Note
Keep the thread on topic, please.

 

[Jason N]

sorry, that was my bad(topic shift). Well I think the Trend Ethan Schisler brought up is materializing in terms of a downtrend on conditions during the time I am looking at travels out west. . thinking a week postponement?... while the GEFS doesn't look too good either right now for 28-04June, it does improve a bit from 04-11June with the emergence of a weak -PNA possibly with the MJO still in the phase 2/3. The GFS EXT 17-24day(4-11June) does show trough development over the Wrn US. and the CFS v2 does indicate higher probs over NW Tx / Wrn OK for that time frame to. I don't know if I should delay a week or not. So I have 48hrs to call it or not.

 

[Dean Baron]

This week certainly looks like crap. Tomorrow may have some potential in western NE/KS but after that I think significant tor potential shuts down. I know the SPC has an enhanced risk for Thursday and even mentions some potential for a sig tor but with a big, crashing cold front I’m not overly optimistic about that potential. Throw in a morning MCS and the entire day could turn out to be a non event, at least in terms of tornado potential. After that it looks like the cold front will sweep moisture all the way down to TX for the weekend. The models even hint at a little snow up here in MN if I do chase it’ll be a one day trip on Thursday. I may decide a long weekend of fishing sounds more appealing.

 

[Jeff House]

Wednesday and Thursday are chase days hands down, if one is already out there or lives out there. Travel is a different topic.

Wednesday should be isolated sups on the DL. Warm mid-level is an issue. If one can go and overcome it, tap into the entire CAPE profile, it’s game on!

Thursday is somewhat cold front, somewhat outflow. That’s risky in April and early May. Late May with enough cross-frontal flow aloft, that can work. May 22, 2019 comes to mind.

In conclusion I would say this is a good two day sequence for chasing.

 

[Jason N]

Jeff what are you seeing in the large scale outlook from 4 -11 June. I am calling into question my trip timing.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Jeff what are you seeing in the large scale outlook from 4 -11 June. I am calling into question my trip timing.

Both this morning's Euro and the GEFS look relatively milquetoast.

There is some very modest zonal flow over the N Plains towards the end of that period. I don't see any life-altering troughs, but it's also important to remember that we are nearing June. There have been many, many days that are not synoptically evident, like yesterday, on long-range model predictions yet enough CAPE, a boundary, and maybe 25-40kt of mid-level flow end up yielding a nice surprise event or two, especially on the Cheyenne Ridge and the DCVZ, but anywhere that the right parameters overlap. Every year generally offers a handful of photogenic tornadic supercells and incredible structure on days just not screaming with red flags 7-10 days out.

 

[Jason N]

Jesse, yeah -- good points, I think I am trying to look at it from the preponderance of factors , do I stick with landing on the 28th and maybe get that day, the 29th and maybe the 30th before things shut off almost entirely? or do I wait a week and hope the ridge isn't so dramatic. and even if the probs are lowered , gives me maybe more potential days to select from once the meso-scale features come into view. I hate feeling like I'm going to waste a 9 day trip! .. lol

 

[Matt Hunt]

Jesse, yeah -- good points, I think I am trying to look at it from the preponderance of factors , do I stick with landing on the 28th and maybe get that day, the 29th and maybe the 30th before things shut off almost entirely? or do I wait a week and hope the ridge isn't so dramatic. and even if the probs are lowered , gives me maybe more potential days to select from once the meso-scale features come into view. I hate feeling like I'm going to waste a 9 day trip! .. lol

That's tough when you're flying in. Last year I had a week off for chasing, and aside from one marginal day on the first Saturday, there was really nothing else. So I skipped the long drive for just one marginal day, and went mountain biking in Moab instead!

Back to this season, I'm pretty optimistic about the next two days. Currently in Garden City, KS, and may not have to move much for tomorrow. Thursday I'm questioning if the TX panhandle dryline may be a better bet than the cold front zone, though as Jeff House mentioned, it could still work. It definitely has the potential to get messy, though, perhaps some sort of quasi-linear with embedded HP supercells. Environment is quite juicy, though, with 70+ dewpoints. I don't think we've seen that yet this year, have we?

The weekend looks iffy. Maybe some potential back in Colorado/panhandle region. After that, well, I'm just going to wait until it's closer to decide if I want to stay in the plains another week, or head back to Idaho. I have until June 7th, but realistically the 5th would probably be my last chase day, unless we're talking eastern WY. Looking at the 18z GFS now, and it's putting NW flow over the plains, and that's kinda been the trend.

 

[Jason N]

Matt, yeah, I don't think there is going to be a week even after this one that is just skirt raising awesome, they are going to be small areas with minimal to somewhat decent conditions in small areas, so I am just going to have to suck it up and go and do the work to find the best stuff I can.. heck even if that takes me to places just for structure sunset shots, I'll make the most of it, and like was said before, the closer in models will fill in some of the features that GFS/CFS/GDPS etc. just don't really have a handle on. I do see some small potential here and there. As it stands right now.. Sat-Sun 29-30 have some slight maybes( will keep watching)... mon-wed.. ugh( park visits)... thurs and fri get a tiny bit better maybe...

 

[JamesCaruso]

I’m looking forward to the next few days. Thursday in SW KS, Friday in the TX PH, Friday looks iffy but both Saturday and Sunday there is moisture in E CO and magic can happen there with just marginal 500mb flow. Agree next week is t looking too good right now, I probably wont stick around for NW flow, will save the vacation time and head home early.

 

[Jason N]

yeah, if I were out there today I would probably be sitting in Garden/Scott city... on that note I think I am going to cancel for this upcoming week. its just not looking good.. gonna swap to 4 - 12 June.