Looks like for the first week or so at least, June will be pretty boring weather-wise.
Exactly Andy.It's not a wowzer of a trough by any means, but the Canadian (TX) tornadoes were a good reminder you don't need that to get great storms & tornadoes, AND you don't have to race them at 40-60 MPH! 500MB flow couldn't have been much above 30 kt in that area at the time.
My spidey senses tell me we could see a big early fall event this year. Something like a 9-22-06 or 10-18-07. The juice seems to be consistently in place, and with the ongoing El Nino the jet seems more energized than normal. Sooner or later climatology is going to begin to take over and the cold air will make a push southward, which should only further strengthen the jet and help generate some strong cyclones. Hell, we just saw an anomalously deep cyclone produce a potential 3 hour long tornado in Canada 2 weeks ago.
So yea, totally won't be surprised to see a higher end event in the early fall. Interesting to see how things unfold as we slowly begin the transition between seasons and the jet comes back south.