I am not a big believer in much severe weather in the Plains, Midwest or Northeast this time of year because most of the time any storms that form usually end up being very low topped and unorganized or in an anafront environment which leads to weaker storms/organization. But we shall see.
More interesting to me is the very long range GFS that clearly offers a pattern change solution. If it pans out, much of the northern 1/4 of the U.S. won't see highs out of the 30's and 40's by Nov. 18th with the chance of a decent clipper coming through. Two days later, 11/20, the GFS develops a significant tropical system east of the Bahamas. Wow.