Long Range Weather Pattern...WOW!!

[Robert Dewey]

My apology as well... I guess I will start another thread dealing with the potential synoptic non-convective wind event...

 

[HAltschule]

I am not a big believer in much severe weather in the Plains, Midwest or Northeast this time of year because most of the time any storms that form usually end up being very low topped and unorganized or in an anafront environment which leads to weaker storms/organization. But we shall see.

More interesting to me is the very long range GFS that clearly offers a pattern change solution. If it pans out, much of the northern 1/4 of the U.S. won't see highs out of the 30's and 40's by Nov. 18th with the chance of a decent clipper coming through. Two days later, 11/20, the GFS develops a significant tropical system east of the Bahamas. Wow.

 

[David Brookshier]

quote]We need some dynamic storms - enough of this no-weather nonsense...

Well spoken and well said if this extreme stability persists were going to have a major outbreak of SDS and I may as well work for the Unprediction Center as the last shred of my sanity is eaten up by clear blue skies.

Instability=Success

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Gotta love the wording on the latest SPC day 1 outlook:

WITH MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS PATTERN COULD YIELD A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT.

Agree that the overall synopsis and geographic area in the risk area remind me a bit of October 24, 2001, although with the low further south (if I recall correctly that one tracked near the US/Canadian border).

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Andy Wehrle
Gotta love the wording on the latest SPC day 1 outlook:

WITH MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS PATTERN COULD YIELD A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT.

Agree that the overall synopsis and geographic area in the risk area remind me a bit of October 24, 2001, although with the low further south (if I recall correctly that one tracked near the US/Canadian border).

If I remember correctly, the 2001 event featured the low up towards Canada, and it was already occluded / well defined when it entered the threat region - which is what lead to the strongly backed SFC flow.

This system will be in the developing stage as it moves in, and I believe the low level wind field tightens up a bit more than the 2001 event leading to slightly better speed shear (but less directional shear). Given that, I really think the event tomorow will be the typical "thunderless" squall line... Heck, with such strong low level wind fields, the front itself (and behind it) maybe able to generate damaging winds (see my other thread "WIND EVENT").

 

[Anthony Silver]

Originally posted by David Brookshier
quote]We need some dynamic storms - enough of this no-weather nonsense...

Well spoken and well said if this extreme stability persists were going to have a major outbreak of SDS and I may as well work for the Unprediction Center as the last shred of my sanity is eaten up by clear blue skies.

Instability=Success

Hang in there and be patient ...looks like more severe weather could pop by the middle part of next week. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

 

[HAltschule]

Since this pattern is extremely abnormal for this time of year, it will be interesting to see how moisture, instability and dynamics actually pan out later today. SPC paints a very active picture and one that warrants a MOD risk of severe it would seem.

 

[David Brookshier]

It looks like we may very well have a good severe event by 11/8 If only I can get the time off from work to reach the target which would make the southern most tip of SE Nebraska the closest area within striking range. Too bad it's 900 + miles out from home. :!: :shock:

 

[HAltschule]

Eastern NY/New England:

Based on 12z/18z data, it looks like the squall line will not reach Eastern NY until around 7pm or just after. As such, I believe the threat for a severe line of storms east of a Montreal to Binghamton line is very low. Loss of daytime heating should cause the line to rapidly weaken by the time it progresses into Eastern NY.

The window of opportunity tomorrow should be between Buffalo, NY and Utica, NY during the 3pm-7pm timeframe. Oh well.

 

[Scott Olson]

It's quite unlikely this far out but take a look at the GFS 240hr:

http://grib2.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS2P5_500...PVORT_240HR.gif
http://grib2.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS2P5_100...HKPRP_240HR.gif

Though the gulf is gonna get scoured pretty bad By 120hrs it does start to recover. Not that bad from a moisture standpoint for November looks more like the May we had.

 

[Michael Auker]

OMG, that's an awfully juicy airmass that resides across the south today. This will really boost the chances for severe weather this week. SPC has just upgraded outlook for tomorrow, and IMO, will also upgrade day three. This is somewhat of an unusual weather pattern for the up-coming severe weather episode, looks like storm motions tomorrow and Wed. will be east-southeast. Unusual for November!