Long Range Weather Pattern...WOW!!

What is up with this weather pattern? Continuing with the unseasonably warm weather, the long range pattern out to 384 hours (Nov. 15th) look more like late spring/early summer than mid autumn. With temperatures at least in the 60's and a 500mb jet of 10 KTS (??) in Kansas. Where's the polar and arctic jet?
 
With temperatures at least in the 60's and a 500mb jet of 10 KTS (??) in Kansas. Where's the polar and arctic jet?
I don't know, but I'll take all the nice fall weather I can get. 8)
 
I'm hoping the arctic jet really gets cranked up along with the subtropical jet... We need some dynamic storms - enough of this no-weather nonsense...
 
Every day I don't have to heat the house is more money saved for the spring of 2006

I was thinking the same thing! This winter is going to be tough on the wallet. My average gas bill in the winter is $180 per month, or about $6 a day. This year it's going to be 30%-50% more. I've already moved my office up from the basement because I'm only heating three rooms in the house this winter - living room (doubling as office), bedroom and bathroom. Everything else is closed off to just let enough heat in to keep the pipes from freezing.
 
Every day I don't have to heat the house is more money saved for the spring of 2006

I was thinking the same thing! This winter is going to be tough on the wallet. My average gas bill in the winter is $180 per month, or about $6 a day. This year it's going to be 30%-50% more. I've already moved my office up from the basement because I'm only heating three rooms in the house this winter - living room (doubling as office), bedroom and bathroom. Everything else is closed off to just let enough heat in to keep the pipes from freezing.

I feel your pain. Our gas bill usually peaks in Feburary at $240! This year I shut everything off except the heat in our room and the pipe heater is electric. I can't imagine how we will manage this years bill.
 
Good points from all of you. I should be happy that the heating bill is down...especially since I work at home all day (and would need the heat on). We are expecting low 60's the next couple of days. The no-heat wave continues...
 
Interesting system for next Saturday for the central plains now on the GFS. Interesting to say the least. GFS has it deeping starting Saturday with an excellent fetch of TDs and excellent shear as well. I believe it was wanting to develop on Sunday so perhaps it'll slow it back down. It is most certainly worth keeping an eye on. Probably end up being severe weather in KS, OK area one day and snowing here in NE(or IA) the next.
 
Interesting system for next Saturday for the central plains now on the GFS. Interesting to say the least. GFS has it deeping starting Saturday with an excellent fetch of TDs and excellent shear as well. I believe it was wanting to develop on Sunday so perhaps it'll slow it back down. It is most certainly worth keeping an eye on. Probably end up being severe weather in KS, OK area one day and snowing here in NE(or IA) the next.

Long-range GFS does try to evolve a pretty dynamic situation this weekend... Raging >50kt LLJ should likely stream in deep gulf moisture ahead of the trough... And should make a pretty saturated low-level airmass. It will be pretty interesting to see it evolve, to say the least...
 
Interesting system for next Saturday for the central plains now on the GFS. Interesting to say the least. GFS has it deeping starting Saturday with an excellent fetch of TDs and excellent shear as well. I believe it was wanting to develop on Sunday so perhaps it'll slow it back down. It is most certainly worth keeping an eye on. Probably end up being severe weather in KS, OK area one day and snowing here in NE(or IA) the next.

Long-range GFS does try to evolve a pretty dynamic situation this weekend... Raging >50kt LLJ should likely stream in deep gulf moisture ahead of the trough... And should make a pretty saturated low-level airmass. It will be pretty interesting to see it evolve, to say the least...

I just don't see enough moisture getting that far up this time of year. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. Anyone else think the GFS is overplaying the TD's? I mean it's November. 8)
 
Interesting system for next Saturday for the central plains now on the GFS. Interesting to say the least. GFS has it deeping starting Saturday with an excellent fetch of TDs and excellent shear as well. I believe it was wanting to develop on Sunday so perhaps it'll slow it back down. It is most certainly worth keeping an eye on. Probably end up being severe weather in KS, OK area one day and snowing here in NE(or IA) the next.

Long-range GFS does try to evolve a pretty dynamic situation this weekend... Raging >50kt LLJ should likely stream in deep gulf moisture ahead of the trough... And should make a pretty saturated low-level airmass. It will be pretty interesting to see it evolve, to say the least...

I just don't see enough moisture getting that far up this time of year. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. Anyone else think the GFS is overplaying the TD's? I mean it's November. 8)

Current solution --> http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...hr096hr120hr144

Of course, this solution will likely be nowhere NEAR the actual fate of this system... A 40-50kt SW LLJ should be more then sufficiant flow to bring a pretty good fetch well northward.
 
To lend some credence to that solution, the latest ECMWF (this morning's 12z I think) paints a synoptic situation that would support a strong extratropical cyclone over the central US. Strong baroclinicity, hints of a nicely coupled upper-level jet pattern, strong moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico (yielding plenty of latent heat potential, which can certainly feedback into the system to lead to stronger sfc pressure falls, etc), etc.
 
Reality check, everyone :) :

PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG GULF COASTAL AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. THUS...EVEN IF VERIFYING UPPER FLOW REGIME TRENDS TOWARD 31/00Z GFS RUN...WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY /MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND THE MREF/...POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A RELATIVELY MINOR SEVERE EVENT SEEMS LOW.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Not to say things can't change, but it IS late October/November and there are likely to be more issues with the quality/depth/fetch etc of the Gulf juice than there were this April/May.
 
Reality check, everyone :

When there is hope I think a CHASER will go with that. I don't need "reality" when something has many things going for it.

The newest GFS being even quicker with this sure does take a stab at the hope I was having however.
 
Reality check, everyone :

When there is hope I think a CHASER will go with that. I don't need "reality" when something has many things going for it.

The newest GFS being even quicker with this sure does take a stab at the hope I was having however.

So very true, Mike...

I would have to favor the latest GFS run given my current geographical location (and I am REALLY up for a chase). At the surface, a broad baroclinic zone should form across the upper MS valley (with cold front from MO curving into TX and trough/surface low in MO/IL region) with strong mid-upper flow above strongly backed boundary layer flow -- in a relatively moist airmass -- could indeed support a scattered severe event across this region.
 
Michigan has seen tornadoes in November 1970-2004
5 Tornadoes, 4 Tornado Days

Mike

MI won't be much of a concern (none at all, really) with this system... The current GFS has cyclogenesis over the upper Mississipi valley on Saturday, with the system pushing dramatically northeast by the end of the weekend/early next week. If this system happens like I see (and want) it, there would be a broad warm sector across MO / IL / IN - with intense severe thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. This thing is still way out (although both GFS/ECMWF have been rather simuler for the past few runs now), so we'll see...
 
This setup is worth keeping an eye on. If nothing else, the UVV looks pretty dynamic, and the lapse rates quite steep. I also like the orientation of height lines at 850mb, perpendicular to the isotherms; even notice a hint of divergent jet flow up above; nice wind crossover with height. As noted above, juice naturally subject to question on seasonality grounds alone, but actually the surface flows in the couple days leading up to the setup offer some promise for a decent gulf/carribean fetch, so the 60-65td forecast appears feasible.
 
It appears the latest GFS solution has trended back to yesterday's 12z run... This would be putting the trough/surface low in eastern MO, with a broad warm sector stretching across MO/IL/IN. The combination of increasing low-level moisture feeding into the region and very favorable veered/sheared flow with height (30-40kt SW LLJ, >50kts at 500mb and 80-100kt flow at 250mb) will make a very favorable setup for organized supercells.

In addition, the latest GFS run has dramatically slowed down the progression of the trough -- with the current solution painting a favorable 2-day setup across the Upper Mississipi Valley for severe thunderstorms ( http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...hr108hr132hr156 ) and the trough is much more negatively-tilted by Sunday. This is such a dream setup for me... I just wonder how much of it will end up turning out like this. I just need a chase within <500 miles of my house on a weekend to please me :eek:
 
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